In USA the ganging up of cartels to manipulate prices and stock market manipulation that victimizes innocent investors are offenses punishable by fines by hundreds of millions and jail sentences
you have your point calvin, but its hard to prove these so called sindikets and ib strategy, in order for them to surpress the mother share price, they need to stock up heavily in order to be able to sell, dont tell me they buy and and sell same time !! if they do this then price will stay the same.... so if what you say is true, then u need to prove how it works
Yes Calvin remembers you in Fgv where we held on since year 2020 when Fgv was pressed down below Rm1.30 by gross under offer We see Fgv broke through the Rm1.30 artificial barrier to reach Rm2.00
Yes and a Million times YES!!
All palm oil mother shares as a Group will break through all artificial manipulation as they cannot last forever.
We will hold all tenaciously till we see superbull commence Have a nice weekend
if they really want the mother shares to go up then when Tsh was Rm1.50 to Rm1.60 THEY SHOULD NOT GIVE SELL CALL ON TSH TO GO SO LOW AS RM1.40
THEY SHOULD UPGRADE TSH TO RM3.00 or RM4.00
THE VERY FACT THEY GIVE SELL CALL SHOWS THEY HAVE NO INTENTION FOR MOTHER SHARE TO GO UP
AND IF THEY MEANT WHAT THEY SAID THEN THEY WILL FOLLOW THROUGH BY "THROWING DOWN" THE MOTHER SHARES TO OWN TO PRESS DOWN THEIR CALL WARRANTS .ANYTHING CONTRARY DOES NOT MAKE SENSE AT ALL
They sell the mother shares they own by pressing and suppressing call warrants out of money with a lethal purpose
Like this
They bought Tsh at Rm1.50 for 7 million shares
THEY THEN "THROW DOWN" TSH FROM RM1.50 TO RM1.35 WITH A LOSS OF 15 SEN
TOTAL LOST FROM MOTHER IS RM150 X 7,000
= RM1,050,000
Only losing Rm1.05 millions
suppose they issued 200 millions call warrant at 15 sen and all expired out of money due to mother artificially PRESSED DOWN BY THEIR SELLING, BY GIVING SELL CALL BY SPREADING RUMOUR WITH HELP FROM DISHONEST ANALYST
THEN THEY WILL MAKE A KILLING
150 X 200000
= RM30 MILLIONS PROFIT FROM DIRTY MANIPULATION
WHO KNOWS THESE CLANDESTINE OPERATIONS?
ANSWER:
IB BANKER THEMSELVES
BURSA
SECURITY COMMISSION
DIRECTORS OF LISTED PALM OIL CO IN WHICH THEY ISSUED CALL WARRANTS
THERE IS NO HIDING IF AUTHORITIES WANT TO INVESTIGATE AND PROSECUTE THEM
Calvin, With what basis did you come out with 7m mother share vs 200m CW?
Look at 27th May Trading, The most active traded call warrants for KLK was KLK-C14. Go to bursamalaysia.com and read CIMB monthly issuers's announcement for the month of April. Total Issue Size of KLK-C14 is 150,000,000, However, No. of KLK-C14 not held by CIMB on End April (meaning out in the market) was only 661,200 units. The conversion ratio of KLK-C14 is 15, meaning 661200 / 15 = 44080 mother share. This 44080 units is chicken feed compare to KLK volume 1,778,000 on Friday. I do not think it is worth for CIMB to manipulate.
One guy from one Investment Bank told me that trading volume is one of the criteria set by Bursa (or SC?). They can not get approval to issue structured warrant on mother share which are not actively traded.
You must go see all the 42 palm oil related co and how many got call warrants as well as all the other 1000 Klse stocks and see how my many got call warrants
After you calculate all the sum total then only you will see the figures
As today is the Lord's Day go read your Bible or go Church her sermons
My understanding of how the IBs manage call warrants business, take example of KLK-C14. 1) Let say Monday, some one buy 300,000 KLK-C14 from Issuer, 2) As the No of KLK-C14 not held by Issuer increase by 300,000, Issuer will immediately go and buy 20000 KLK. 3) 10 minutes later, if another guy sell 150,000 KLK-C14 to Issuer, the Issuer will go and sell 10000 KLK. 4) This will continue until before the 5 settlement days. 5) Then the Issuer will dispose slowly their mother share holding in that 5 settlement days. 6) Sure win for IBs, no need to manipulate the market.
The video doesn't say any details about how the bank or investor earn in specific. Let me take an example, SIMEPLT-C2 Current price RM5.05 Maturity 29 June 2022 Exercise price RM4.50 Warrant price RM0.065 Ratio 10:1 Premium: 0.20 Gearing 7.615
If I buy a 10000 warrant call, then I pay RM650? Then ratio of 10 means I get only 1000 mother shares? It would means I get RM 4500 for the RM650 I paid? Hey wait, it makes no sense....
1) They calculate the Historical Volatility (HV), let say it is 20%, 2) Apply a factor of, say for example 1.25, it is 20%*1.25=25%, 3) This 25% become Implied Volatility (IV) 4) Input 25% to Fair Value Calculator, and let say they get the Fair Value is 60 sen, 5) Then they set the ratio as 4, the issue price will be 60 sen / 4 = 15 sen. 6) After listing, they set market making, Buy at 15.0 sen and Sell at 15.5 sen, 7) The Spread 0.5 sen, that is 3.3%, and is their profit, 8) If the price go down to 10 sen, then 0.5 / 10, that is 5%, higher profit, 9) If the price go up, they can set buy / sell spread to 1.0 sen to maintain the profit margin, 10) But the problem is when the price go up further, let say to 50 sen, 11) They can set market making buy 50.0 and sell 52 sen, 12) But I can jump Q to buy 50.5 sen , or the person who have that CW can jump Q to sell at 51.5, 13) Then Issuer can not maintain their profit.
Input: 1) Dividend Yield = 0%, as there will be no dividend from now to Expiry. 2) Historical Volatility, 35% to 42%, I use 40% 3) Interest Rate, I use 4%. 4) Expiry, I use the 3rd settlement day, 24th June 2022.
My calculation show that the fair value for SIMEPLT-C2 is 0.0597.
If the current price RM5.05, the fair value is 0.0597, then as retail if I buy at 0.065 means it's not worth it for me? But if I buy at 0.065, I should wait the current price goes up to RM6.5? Just an example. I try search online on how it calculated but no result come up.
If I buy a 10000 warrant call, then I pay RM650? Then ratio of 10 means I get only 1000 mother shares? It would means I get RM 4500 for the RM650 I paid? Hey wait, it makes no sense....
No, you will not get any mother share. They will calculate the 5 days average price of SIMEPLT, Let say the average is 5.1234, Then (5.1234-4.50)/10 = 0.06234, Then 10000*0.06234=623.40, A few days after Expiry, your account will be credited with RM623.40.
If the average price is lower then 4.50, then you will not receive any money.
Because of these call warrants During Glove Superbull phase when Supermax C87 shot up from 15 sen to Rm7.00 they have sleepless nights as they were staring at untold losses
And these were what IB banks ganged up to do
1. Suddenly they set lower target prices for glove prices
2. And then readjusted margin loans by reducing margins for designated glove conters
3. Then they collectively ask for margin top-ups (I never use margin in all my investing )
4. At the same time they spread rumour about Windfall tax on gloves creating panic and fear
5. The media also roped in by spreading more fear and fake news about "Windfall" Tax
Plus the aggressive shortsell and as a result Supermax after rising from Rm2.50 suddenly crashed from Rm9.20 to Rm6.60 in great confusion and panic sell down
Calvin told all friends not to panic as Supermax Insiders bought at Rm7.50 and Rm7.75 then and still holding
After IB banks have bought enough glove shares to hedge then only glove bull run resumed
Glove is now history and gone Case due to the awakening of the China Giant now in full glove production
But no way China could be a threat to palm oil as it will take at least 5 years to plant and see the 1st drop of cooking oil.
This round IB banks also cannot stop the palm oil superbull as long as Soyoil, canola oil and sunflower oil are in stratospheric highs Cpo prices will remain very high
plus another booster from high crude oil that spur biodisel use
I still remember very well the volatility of gloves at that time. Calvin really has the wisdom, keeps the records and does his homework very well. Salute
Singapore listed Palm oil Co operates in Indonesia Singapore got no palm oil estates & Indonesia got palm oil export ban can do so well then what is happening in Malaysia??
14 minutes ago
calvintaneng
Thailand Univanish OIl Palm also gone up all time high & remain elevated So what are Malaysian Palm OIl Co shares correcting with Analysts downgrading unless there is some hidden agenda?
So from all real life - real time evidences all over the World's Palm oil producing nations of Ghana (Benso palm oil), Nigeria (Okomu Palm oil), Singapore/Indonesia (Goldenagri palm oil) & Thailand (Univanish Palm Oil) All are rising up in Total Unison & growing from stength to strength as we type now in Singapore
Yet in Malaysia people who own palm oil shares see prices weakening with IB Bankers plus Analyst giving neutral & underweight call
LISTEN!!
THIS CANNOT BE!!
SOMETHING VERY VERY VERY WRONG DUE TO STOCK MANIPULATION
You said "After IB banks have bought enough glove shares to hedge then only glove bull run resumed"
If what you said is from reliable sources, they should have learned the painful lesson, the big bosses should have scolded the managers and from then on they would buy mother shares immediately to hedge against any call warrants that they sell. Logically the history will not repeat so soon on plantation counters.
And myself believe that from the very beginning, the Issuers want "Sure Win" and "Kia-Su", they immediately hedge against any call warrants that they sell.
Sell Call Warrant without hedging or so-called Sell Naked is subject to unlimited losses.
Actually mkt is bearish & mkt is also skeptical of the commodity bulll run of;
1.CPO 2. Steel 3. Crude Oil 4. Crack spread 5. Aluminum, Tin and Copper
Thus mkt is taking a cautious approach to its sustainability mah!
If say CPO continue to perform at above Rm 5000 going fwd and the management has good corp governance & pays good div to reward shareholders, I m sure the Plantation share price will continue to go up mah!
Even if the CPO price come down to Rm 4000, I m sure the impact on plantation share price is minimal as currently it is not overvalue mah!
Currently with all food inflation in the world plus limited land available for future cultivation due to the environment concern, plantation valuation & its land will be valuable loh!
On market financial theory, Calvin is 100% correct. i3 gambler is totally wrong ! IB bank issues cw for the purpose to gamble with ikan billis. In gambling world ,the bankers must make sure they are on the advantage to make money from customers .So simple !!! Like that also don't know ! Pasar old lady selling kuih also know the secret !
Beltland, skoh888 in his post have explained that "profit is derived more from the market making and spread activities". The Youtube video link that I put here also explain IBs would not earn money that way. What to do with the Pasar old lady selling kuih? You look down on them? What an arrogant person you are. Telling what financial theory? You are joker?
Beltland, True, I am jobless for more than 10 years already. My "full time job" now is trading call warrants and future index. So, no need another job.
Warrant issuers have deep pocket and network of equally deep pockets players to move shares prices just before or on the maturity dates. Not sure the Oversight body has the knowledge, resources , standards, spine, character & will to monitor and control these manipulation. Singapore oversight body could be more through and may punish any wrong doing so the prices there are more reflective .
Jayatiasa doesnt have so called options or warrants, why it suffers heavy retreat?
Though some say jayatiasa result is lousy, but Jan-March is their seasonal low, yet generate better cash flow compare to 21Sep quarter amidst lower production, thanks to higher CPO price.
so I still cant figure out any valid reason for the 40% drops. What's your view on Jayatiasa and Suburtiasa?
What is the key diff in ownership & management between Bplant V Jtiasa leh ? Bplant reward its shareholders by distributing reasonable dividend whereas Jtiasa siphoned cash & profit for its own major shareholder profit mah!
In other words even if Jtiasa going to make good profits, they are not going to share any with u loh!
On the other hand, u can rely on Bplant for its good corporate governance mah! And right now Bplant is actually making more monies than Jtiasa loh!
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calvintaneng
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Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-27 19:46 | Report Abuse
Raymond
this is a very serious matter
In USA the ganging up of cartels to manipulate prices and stock market manipulation that victimizes innocent investors are offenses punishable by fines by hundreds of millions and jail sentences