Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-26 13:10 |

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Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-26 13:11 | Report Abuse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8iDcLTD9wQ

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-26 13:13 | Report Abuse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z00G0RxeSP0

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-26 13:15 |

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Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2022-05-26 13:41 | Report Abuse

Hi Calvin, does it means we can keep buying now at low price?

Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2022-05-26 13:47 | Report Abuse

How do you calculate warrant price, ratio, gearing?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-26 13:50 | Report Abuse

Yes

Just buy oversold mother shares

Only mother shares enjoy bonus and dividends

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-26 14:25 | Report Abuse

Food for thought

Ib banks bought high then THROW DOWN

SO THEY WILL LOSE IN MOTHER SHARES

WHEN PRICES DOWN THEY LOSE IN MOTHER BUT MAKE BACK FROM WARRANTS GOING DOWN

SO TAKE OPPORTUNITY TO BUY MOTHER AND HOLD

CANNOT DOWN FOREVER IT IS ARTIFICIAL

Posted by WinBigOrLoseAll > 2022-05-26 14:26 | Report Abuse

bili win this time, they outsmart the sifu and sold much earlier and trapped all the sifu
poor master sifu now all stuck on high floors and keep on cheering bili come back but bili just shrug off them

Posted by citadel888 > 2022-05-26 14:37 | Report Abuse

haha let Calvin syok sendiri

Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2022-05-26 14:41 | Report Abuse

Actually, if you refer to Hibiscus, same thing happened. Good news happened, Brent price increase but Hibiscus keep going down. After half a year, it doubled and going up.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-05-26 14:53 | Report Abuse

@WinBigOrLoseAll
Ikan bilis can't help to push up or press down share price because their proportion is relatively small though may have some effect on the share price, only big players can do it but I believe most of them don't come to i3 forum to read or write like you and me.

Posted by AdCool > 2022-05-26 16:01 | Report Abuse

IB wont make money from their call warrants if nobody buy them at the first place. Just see the volumes of the transaction, it was so low.
calvintaneng

Food for thought

Ib banks bought high then THROW DOWN

SO THEY WILL LOSE IN MOTHER SHARES

WHEN PRICES DOWN THEY LOSE IN MOTHER BUT MAKE BACK FROM WARRANTS GOING DOWN

SO TAKE OPPORTUNITY TO BUY MOTHER AND HOLD

CANNOT DOWN FOREVER IT IS ARTIFICIAL

Posted by Berlin > 2022-05-26 16:52 | Report Abuse

You just can't blame the plantation stocks sell down on the IBs. Market sentiment has deteriorated and other stocks are down as well. Just that plantation stocks were recently chased up with high ffb/cpo prices and therefore are now correcting more sharply. Just normal market reaction to over enthusiasm.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-26 19:53 | Report Abuse

Berlin

I posted the facts and the evidences

a few thousand readers can both read and make their own conclusions

Posted by soon2795 > 2022-05-27 00:26 | Report Abuse

Ms Z planning to quit as minister. Will her new replacement be able to bring Malaysian palm oil to greater heights?

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2022/05/26/zuraida-quits-bersatu-for-pbm-to-talk-to-pm-about-resigning-as-minister/8885

Posted by everest29029 > 2022-05-27 09:32 | Report Abuse

soon2795, your question is valid...This is uncertainty. Similar to politics, the market does not like uncertainty. A major setback in palm oil policies & future direction.

Posted by myfuad > 2022-05-27 09:59 | Report Abuse

greedy rich people made people suffer all the time...wish them go to hell..

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2022-05-27 13:10 | Report Abuse

Thank you for this post, which helps to make things much clearer. I had been puzzled as to why these plantation counters are going down.

Sure, CPO prices have come down from the highest ever. But they are still very high historically. Which means these companies are still raking in a lot of money.

It didn't occur to me about these call warrants! Especially in how much the IBs will lose should the warrants end in the money.

There's an opportunity to add plantations to one's portfolio if their prices drop some more. If institutions and foreign investors do the same, the IBs will meet their match.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-05-27 13:54 | Report Abuse

How I wish if Bursa might as well closed for the next 6 months after that we come back to see how much will the plantation stocks worth.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-27 14:11 |

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Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-27 14:39 |

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Posted by Musang King > 2022-05-27 17:14 | Report Abuse

BOYCOTT BUYING ALL CALL WARRANTS AND LET ALL THE IB DIE BY THEMSELF IN FUTURE. THEY ARE THE CROOKS WHO STOLE ALL THE HARD EARNED MONIES FROM NEWBIES & RETAIL INVESTORS.

Posted by MuttsInvestor > 2022-05-27 17:18 | Report Abuse

" Caveat Emptor " = " the principle that the buyer alone is responsible for checking the quality and suitability of goods before a purchase is made. " ..... This includes Shares and Stocks.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2022-05-27 17:43 | Report Abuse

I wasn't interested in plantation counters then, around 2 years ago. Not exciting at all. But I've followed the market long enough, and had seen their price cycles. Especially when institutions and foreign investors come in. Would regret very much, and envious, not having plantation companies in my portfolio when that happened.

Have to acknowledge that your various posts on palm oil had led me to gradually make them a major component in my investing portfolio. Despite these being "so un-sexy" compared to many other counters at Bursa, I had bought TH Plantations when it was below 0.50. Despite being hesitant because Maybank IB had a Sell call on it, even at that price! (It has quietly changed to a higher TP). And also TSH.

My target was just a reasonable "50% of capital invested" within a couple of years or so. Well, got that and more. And gotten another bite of the cherry when prices started to go down. I guess there's also `good' when/if IBs are pushing the price downwards :) Despite reports of labour shortage etc., CPO prices are simply too attractive. Buying plantation counters is the easiest way for us urban folks to also `tumpang' the benefits.

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2022-05-27 18:56 | Report Abuse

so calvintaneng.... how do we fight the IBs? i am ready with my belt, and pen knife.... lets go to war :-)

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-27 19:46 | Report Abuse

Raymond

this is a very serious matter

In USA the ganging up of cartels to manipulate prices and stock market manipulation that victimizes innocent investors are offenses punishable by fines by hundreds of millions and jail sentences

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2022-05-27 22:09 | Report Abuse

you have your point calvin, but its hard to prove these so called sindikets and ib strategy, in order for them to surpress the mother share price, they need to stock up heavily in order to be able to sell, dont tell me they buy and and sell same time !! if they do this then price will stay the same.... so if what you say is true, then u need to prove how it works

Posted by Mabel > 2022-05-28 00:41 | Report Abuse

What Calvin said is correct.. Don't buy Call Warrant..

It's a double edge swords..

Just buy in small number mother shares and accumulate slowly if not enough money.

You get double bonus on capital appreciation and Dividend..

Why want to support IB?

Meow

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-28 07:14 |

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Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-28 07:32 | Report Abuse

Happy greetings to all who visited this page

7,000 thanks as of 7.30am on this day of 28th May 2022

Posted by Mabel > 2022-05-28 07:47 | Report Abuse

Good Morning Calvin

Absolutely.. Not only we tango in FGV, We also tango in TDM, SOP, TAANN, KLK, SIMEPLT, IOIPLT, TH PLT, BP PLT etc etc..

Now Mabel can goyang kaki oledi..

Yes please avoid Call Warrant. If still want to play warrant go for the company WA warrant..


IB will bites you. Mabel have seen similar strategy by IB in the Gloves industry.

Focus on the mother shares. Don't gamble with call warrant..

Thanks a million Calvin for all your sharing. You are the Real Darling..

To Our Success

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-28 16:20 |

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Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-28 19:01 | Report Abuse

The Issuers do not want the mother shares to go down.
In fact they want the mother share to go up, the higher the better.

They are not gambler, they want sure win.
The time they sell call warrants, there are mother shares in their hand to hedge against it.

Please ask some one who has worked in Investment Banks.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-28 19:21 | Report Abuse

i3gambler

if they really want the mother shares to go up then when Tsh was Rm1.50 to Rm1.60 THEY SHOULD NOT GIVE SELL CALL ON TSH TO GO SO LOW AS RM1.40

THEY SHOULD UPGRADE TSH TO RM3.00 or RM4.00

THE VERY FACT THEY GIVE SELL CALL SHOWS THEY HAVE NO INTENTION FOR MOTHER SHARE TO GO UP

AND IF THEY MEANT WHAT THEY SAID THEN THEY WILL FOLLOW THROUGH BY "THROWING DOWN" THE MOTHER SHARES TO OWN TO PRESS DOWN THEIR CALL WARRANTS
.ANYTHING CONTRARY DOES NOT MAKE SENSE AT ALL

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-28 19:36 |

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Posted by Pinky > 2022-05-28 23:16 | Report Abuse

When you buy warrants you are gambling on share price movements.

When you buy mother shares you are investing in businesses, and enjoy dividends.

You cannot retire on warrants. But you can retire owning shares of profitable businesses.

Talking of which, Ta Ann got warrants by IBs? :P

Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-29 09:39 | Report Abuse

Calvin,
With what basis did you come out with 7m mother share vs 200m CW?

Look at 27th May Trading,
The most active traded call warrants for KLK was KLK-C14.
Go to bursamalaysia.com and read CIMB monthly issuers's announcement for the month of April.
Total Issue Size of KLK-C14 is 150,000,000,
However, No. of KLK-C14 not held by CIMB on End April (meaning out in the market) was only 661,200 units.
The conversion ratio of KLK-C14 is 15, meaning 661200 / 15 = 44080 mother share.
This 44080 units is chicken feed compare to KLK volume 1,778,000 on Friday.
I do not think it is worth for CIMB to manipulate.

One guy from one Investment Bank told me that trading volume is one of the criteria set by Bursa (or SC?).
They can not get approval to issue structured warrant on mother share which are not actively traded.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-29 11:36 |

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Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-29 12:28 | Report Abuse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNJ8K0xiqLg

Watch the above explanation.

Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-29 12:45 | Report Abuse

My understanding of how the IBs manage call warrants business, take example of KLK-C14.
1) Let say Monday, some one buy 300,000 KLK-C14 from Issuer,
2) As the No of KLK-C14 not held by Issuer increase by 300,000, Issuer will immediately go and buy 20000 KLK.
3) 10 minutes later, if another guy sell 150,000 KLK-C14 to Issuer, the Issuer will go and sell 10000 KLK.
4) This will continue until before the 5 settlement days.
5) Then the Issuer will dispose slowly their mother share holding in that 5 settlement days.
6) Sure win for IBs, no need to manipulate the market.

Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2022-05-29 14:00 | Report Abuse

Hi i3gambler, can you explain why/how do issuers issue call warrants and how do they earn from this?

Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2022-05-29 14:37 | Report Abuse

The video doesn't say any details about how the bank or investor earn in specific. Let me take an example, SIMEPLT-C2
Current price RM5.05
Maturity 29 June 2022
Exercise price RM4.50
Warrant price RM0.065
Ratio 10:1
Premium: 0.20
Gearing 7.615

If I buy a 10000 warrant call, then I pay RM650? Then ratio of 10 means I get only 1000 mother shares?
It would means I get RM 4500 for the RM650 I paid?
Hey wait, it makes no sense....

Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-29 15:14 | Report Abuse

Investformilkmoney

1) They calculate the Historical Volatility (HV), let say it is 20%,
2) Apply a factor of, say for example 1.25, it is 20%*1.25=25%,
3) This 25% become Implied Volatility (IV)
4) Input 25% to Fair Value Calculator, and let say they get the Fair Value is 60 sen,
5) Then they set the ratio as 4, the issue price will be 60 sen / 4 = 15 sen.
6) After listing, they set market making, Buy at 15.0 sen and Sell at 15.5 sen,
7) The Spread 0.5 sen, that is 3.3%, and is their profit,
8) If the price go down to 10 sen, then 0.5 / 10, that is 5%, higher profit,
9) If the price go up, they can set buy / sell spread to 1.0 sen to maintain the profit margin,
10) But the problem is when the price go up further, let say to 50 sen,
11) They can set market making buy 50.0 and sell 52 sen,
12) But I can jump Q to buy 50.5 sen , or the person who have that CW can jump Q to sell at 51.5,
13) Then Issuer can not maintain their profit.

Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-29 15:31 | Report Abuse

Investformilkmoney

Input:
1) Dividend Yield = 0%, as there will be no dividend from now to Expiry.
2) Historical Volatility, 35% to 42%, I use 40%
3) Interest Rate, I use 4%.
4) Expiry, I use the 3rd settlement day, 24th June 2022.

My calculation show that the fair value for SIMEPLT-C2 is 0.0597.

May be you can read my post, SUNWAY-WB.

Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2022-05-29 15:38 | Report Abuse

If the current price RM5.05, the fair value is 0.0597, then as retail if I buy at 0.065 means it's not worth it for me? But if I buy at 0.065, I should wait the current price goes up to RM6.5? Just an example. I try search online on how it calculated but no result come up.

Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-29 15:39 | Report Abuse

If I buy a 10000 warrant call, then I pay RM650? Then ratio of 10 means I get only 1000 mother shares?
It would means I get RM 4500 for the RM650 I paid?
Hey wait, it makes no sense....

No, you will not get any mother share.
They will calculate the 5 days average price of SIMEPLT,
Let say the average is 5.1234,
Then (5.1234-4.50)/10 = 0.06234,
Then 10000*0.06234=623.40,
A few days after Expiry, your account will be credited with RM623.40.

If the average price is lower then 4.50, then you will not receive any money.

Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2022-05-29 15:47 | Report Abuse

Hi i3gambler, I see, so that's what exercise price means. This makes it much clearer.

Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2022-05-29 15:47 | Report Abuse

Thank you for the explanation.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-29 17:51 |

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