🔹 *4Q23 result within expectations.* RGB reported a yoy weaker 4Q23 revenue of RM108.6m (-9% yoy, -36% qoq) and core net profit of RM13m (+39% yoy, -50% qoq). The QoQ weaker earnings are mainly due to lower SSM sales from 3Q23’s high base where there’s a bulk order delivered. 2023 record-high core profit of RM76m made up 100% of our forecast.
🔸 *Reported earnings slumped into huge losses due to impairment.* In 4Q23, RGB kitchen sink some of its aging trade receivables totalling RM35.1m. Management alluded that the impairments are merely conservative accounting practises and some of the debtors have been repaying the debts on schedule, which may allow writebacks of these impairments in upcoming quarters. More importantly, these impairments are non-cash items and does not affect core earnings.
🔹 *Declared 0.8sen interim dividend.* In 4Q23, RGB also declared an interim dividend of 0.8sen. This bring 2023 dividend to 2.0sen, which implies full-year dividend yield of 6.9%.
🔸 *Still well-positioned to capitalize on ASEAN jurisdiction’s booming gaming scene and exponential growth.* We retain our view that RGB is set to continue delivering meaningful earnings growth throughout 2024-25F. Key growth drivers arise from the Philippines’ mushrooming new IRs, friendly legislation such as higher slots capacity quotas, and supportive remote gaming policies.
🔹 *Deep-in-value financial matrixes solidify our investment thesis.* RGB’s bargain valuations of 4.6x 2024F PE (<2x ex-cash 2024F PE) and 1.2x 2024F book value offer tremendous potential capital upside. More importantly, RGB’s prospective net cash of RM175m-256m (36-53% of current market cap) is more than sufficient to support its minimum 30% dividend payout policy and lush yields of >6% in 2024-25F.
🔸 *Maintain BUY with unchanged target price of RM0.46,* which implies 7x 2024F PE, <2x 2024F ex-cash PE, and 3x 2024F EV/EBITDA. We believe there should be *potential knee-jerk selldown* reacting to the lackluster reported earnings, but we advocate investors to look beyond the non-cash impairments and *accumulate on weakness.*
RGB's generous dividend declared totaling 2.0ct for FY'23 is rewarding to shareholders which amounts to Dividend Yield (YD) of 6.35%. Many investors are buying in to enjoy this generous dividend forthcoming.
MANILA: The Philippines can overtake Singapore as soon as next year as Asia’s second-largest gambling destination after Macau, the head of Manila’s gaming agency said, with new integrated resorts seen boosting visitors and offsetting a decline in Chinese tourist arrivals.
A new integrated resort by billionaire Enrique Razon’s Bloombery Resorts Corp. will open in Manila later this year, while up to eight more casino projects are being planned, Alejandro Tengco (pic), chairman and chief executive officer of state regulator Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp, or Pagcor, said in an interview at his office on Tuesday (March 12). The regulator also plans to sell state-run casinos by no later than early 2026, he said.
"If Singapore doesn’t expand, they will plateau. Don’t be surprised if next year we will surpass them,” Tengco said. The Philippines expects gross gaming revenue to reach a new high of 336 billion pesos (US$6.1 billion) this year, up from last year’s record 285 billion pesos.
Singapore’s Gambling Regulatory Authority said it has no comment when Bloomberg News asked regarding Tengco’s remarks and referred to the financial statements of Genting Singapore Ltd and Las Vegas Sands Corp for the revenues of the two integrated resorts in the city-state.
Tengco estimates Singapore’s annual gross gaming revenue to be around $6 billion.
Manila is counting on its integrated resorts and casinos to help boost tourist arrivals hit hard during the Covid pandemic. This year, the country is targeting 7.7 million foreign tourists after drawing in 5.45 million in 2023, still below the pre-pandemic level of 8.26 million in 2019.
The nation’s future casinos, which can cost up to $1.2 billion, will be in the capital Manila and at the former US airbase Clark, as well as in tourist magnets like Cebu and Boracay, he said. StarPicks UDA collaborates with Johor Education Department on school environmental programmes
"As you open new markets, new customers will come,” he said.
Slower Chinese tourist arrivals will not hinder the industry’s growth, Tengco said, with Philippine casinos mostly drawing in locals and those from South Korea, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore.
Chinese tourist arrivals to the Philippines dropped last year to just 15% of 2019 levels, according to government data. The decline comes at a time when tensions between the Philippines and China over territorial disputes in the South China Sea have escalated in recent months.
With the Philippines’ gaming revenue rising, new integrated resorts will "hopefully neutralise the decline in Chinese tourist arrivals,” said Tengco, adding that Chinese high rollers are still playing in the country.
The Philippines is also building out its online casino industry, which contributed to a fifth of the country’s gross gaming revenue last year and is expected to grow faster than brick-and-mortar casinos.
"Our advantage over Macau is they don’t have online gaming,” Tengco said. Pagcor plans to launch its own online gaming website later this year, and is seeking a joint venture partner to operate it, he said.
That is part of Pagcor’s efforts to boost the revenue stream of the agency’s Casino Filipino brand - a collection of 41 mostly small casino outlets - ahead of a planned sale of its casino assets so the agency can solely focus on being a regulator.
"We want to decouple because Pagcor has been wearing two hats for too long,” he said, adding the company’s remit is rare in the gambling world.
The law that created the agency as gaming regulator and casino operator is set to expire in 2033. An amendment to the regulation is needed for Pagcor to privatise its casino assets and extend the agency’s corporate life by another 25 years.
Pagcor aims to offer its casinos in bundles - grouped according to location - by late next year or early 2026, and expects to raise 60 billion to 80 billion pesos from the sale, he said. Its planned gaming website will also be sold, he added.
"If we’re successful in the privatisation efforts, investors will have more confidence to invest,” Tengco said. - Bloomberg L.P.
Given the current momentum, the casino law could be ratified in 2024, with the first license tender following soon after. This swift process positions Thailand to potentially outpace Japan in opening Asia's next multi-billion dollar casino resor
Malaysia govt mulls country’s second casino, says report (25/4/2024)
Malaysia’s prime minister has reportedly been in talks with two of the country’s gaming entrepreneurs, Lim Kok Thay of global casino group Genting, and Vincent Tan of lottery specialist Berjaya Corp Bhd, about the possibility of putting a casino in a struggling US$100-billion real estate development that has Chinese backing, called Forest City in Johor, close to the border with Singapore. That is according to a Thursday report by Bloomberg, citing people it did not name, but said were familiar with the matter. Genting runs what is currently Malaysia’s only casino resort, Resorts World Genting, at Genting Highlands, outside the national Kuala Lumpur.
As per my calculation, coming QR eps will be around 1.50 - 1.90 , if based on forward eps 6 x 10pe , the fair value at least 0.60 , today closing 0.39, think about that.......
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
ceoshare
546 posts
Posted by ceoshare > 2024-03-01 09:49 | Report Abuse
*RGB International (RGB MK/BUY/RM0.29/TP:RM0.46)*
_Kitchen Sinking Dragging Reported Earnings🚰_
🔹 *4Q23 result within expectations.* RGB reported a yoy weaker 4Q23 revenue of RM108.6m (-9% yoy, -36% qoq) and core net profit of RM13m (+39% yoy, -50% qoq). The QoQ weaker earnings are mainly due to lower SSM sales from 3Q23’s high base where there’s a bulk order delivered. 2023 record-high core profit of RM76m made up 100% of our forecast.
🔸 *Reported earnings slumped into huge losses due to impairment.* In 4Q23, RGB kitchen sink some of its aging trade receivables totalling RM35.1m. Management alluded that the impairments are merely conservative accounting practises and some of the debtors have been repaying the debts on schedule, which may allow writebacks of these impairments in upcoming quarters. More importantly, these impairments are non-cash items and does not affect core earnings.
🔹 *Declared 0.8sen interim dividend.* In 4Q23, RGB also declared an interim dividend of 0.8sen. This bring 2023 dividend to 2.0sen, which implies full-year dividend yield of 6.9%.
🔸 *Still well-positioned to capitalize on ASEAN jurisdiction’s booming gaming scene and exponential growth.* We retain our view that RGB is set to continue delivering meaningful earnings growth throughout 2024-25F. Key growth drivers arise from the Philippines’ mushrooming new IRs, friendly legislation such as higher slots capacity quotas, and supportive remote gaming policies.
🔹 *Deep-in-value financial matrixes solidify our investment thesis.* RGB’s bargain valuations of 4.6x 2024F PE (<2x ex-cash 2024F PE) and 1.2x 2024F book value offer tremendous potential capital upside. More importantly, RGB’s prospective net cash of RM175m-256m (36-53% of current market cap) is more than sufficient to support its minimum 30% dividend payout policy and lush yields of >6% in 2024-25F.
🔸 *Maintain BUY with unchanged target price of RM0.46,* which implies 7x 2024F PE, <2x 2024F ex-cash PE, and 3x 2024F EV/EBITDA. We believe there should be *potential knee-jerk selldown* reacting to the lackluster reported earnings, but we advocate investors to look beyond the non-cash impairments and *accumulate on weakness.*