As per my calculation, coming QR eps will be around 1.50 - 1.90 , if based on forward eps 6 x 10pe , the fair value at least 0.60 , today closing 0.39, think about that....... -------- unquote ------- QR 1.44 , nearly hit my expectation 1.50, still maintain my TP 0.60 , cheers......
The company notes that at the opening, the casino establishment will have 281 gaming tables, 1,126 slot machines, and 134 electronic table games for both the mass and VIP markets.
undervalue by 75%..earning forecast over 50%..over 400% earning grew last year.. with the good news from our friends in thai and Philippine..i am definitely jump in..
RGB International Bhd (RGB) @ 42.5 Sen – A Gaming gem with valuation of 60 Sen to 72 Sen
Currently at 42.5 Sen it is trading at historical PE 10.81 based on CORE EPS of 3.93 Sen (audited EPS of 1.65 Sen for FY 2023 adding back all exceptional expenses per attached Excel Worksheet).
RGB at 42.5 Sen, presents an enticing investment opportunity with substantial upside potential. Our analysis suggests a conservative valuation range of 60 Sen to 72 Sen, reflecting a compelling 41% to 69% upside, contingent upon the Mr. Market's recognition of RGB's true value.
Valuation Our valuation is underpinned by robust financial modelling, projecting an EPS of 6 Sen for FY 2024. This projection is supported by the recent securing of a significant contract worth RM381 million for the supply and delivery of Slot Machine Equipment in FY 2024. Based on a PE range of 10 to 12, our model suggests a fair valuation of 60 Sen to 72 Sen.
Financial Performance RGB's Q1 FY 2024 results demonstrated a remarkable improvement over FY 2023, with a revenue of RM210 million and reported a PBT of RM25.276 mil and a PAT of RM22.005 million with EPS of 1.44 Sen. Compared to FY 2023 where the revenue was RM699 mil with PBT of RM32.79 mil (the adjusted core PBT after adding back the exceptional expenses was RM72.125 mil) and the PAT was RM34.0 mil (Core PAT = RM60.546 mil) with an EPS of 1.65 Sen (core EPS adding back exceptional items = 3.93 Sen).
Notably, the company reported no bank borrowings and maintains a healthy cash balance of RM185.5 million, indicative of its strong financial position. Additionally, RGB has consistently generated positive operating cash flow, with Q1 FY 2024 recording RM24.4 million.
Catalysts for Rerating Several catalysts support our bullish outlook on RGB: • Exceptional Q1 2024 results with significant growth compared to FY 2023. Q1 PAT of RM22.005 mil is 36.3% of FY 2023 Core PAT of RM60.546 per the excel worksheet attached.
• Securing a lucrative contract from Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation ("PAGCOR") for the supply and delivery of Slot Machine Equipment, valued at RM381 million.
• The anticipated positive contribution to earnings and net assets per share from the PAGCOR contract in FY 2024 commencing from Q3.
• At conservative net margin after tax of about 10% (we understand from investor briefing net margin range from 9% to 12% depending on order quantity), we estimated the impact after tax of the contract could be about RM38 million net profit given the Macau tax rate is 12%.
• Favourable industry dynamics driven by the resurgence of the gaming sector post-pandemic and increased demand for gaming facilities.
Strong Financial • The Company has a cash balance of RM185.5 mil (including other investments) with no bank borrowing on 31 March 2024.
• The cash per share is about 12.04 Sen compared to the net asset of the Company of 17 Sen. The Company has been in net cash position since 2015.
• Strong business cashflow with cash generated from operation for Q1 amounted to RM24.4 mil and for FY 2023 the cash generated from operation was RM123.81 mil.
The booming tourism industry and arrival of tourists is driving up the business of gaming resorts and gaming outlets operators. We understand the gaming industry is back to pre-pandemic level and all operators are operating at optimum capacity and looking at expanding their facilities and upgrading to newer EGM (electronic gaming machine). This demand augurs well for RGB.
The Company business in Philippines (its major market) is going to benefit from new casinos scheduled to open in the next few years as well as from the privatization of 41 casinos by the Philippines Gaming Regulator (PAGCOR). Do take note that on 30 May 2024 the Company had announced its subsidiary in Macau had secured a RM381 mil new order of gaming machines from a new Casino in Philippines for deliveries in FY 2024. RGB International Bhd (“RGB”), a leading casino machine supplier has been in the gaming industry for over 30 years. As international border is now reopened, and casino licenses have been rolling out extensively to boost economy, we believe RGB is poised for a growth in FY2023 and onwards.
Investment Merits • Group successfully secured a RM381 million contract for a new casino in Philippines to be delivered in FY 2024 which will bolster its profit.
• Exclusive distributor for two main slot machines suppliers (Light & Wonder and Aristocrat) in the Philippines where the company hopes to benefit from the casinos scheduled to open in the next few years as well as from the privatization of 41 casinos by the Philippines gaming regulator (PAGCOR).
• Increasing Gross Profit margin to about 19.4%.
• Strong Balance Sheet with Net Asset per share of 17 Sen
• Cash balance of RM185.5 mil and cash per share of 12.04 Sen per share
• Gearing: Nil
• Net positive operating Cashflow of RM24.4 mil for 3 mths FY 2024 (RM123.8 mil FY 2023)
Conclusion
A share worth to buy in on weakness @42.5 Sen with huge potential upside of 41% to 69% with a valuation of 60.0 Sen to 72.0 Sen using PE 10 to PE 12.
Share Price RM0.425 Market Capital (RM): 658.0 million Number of Share: 1.541 billion EPS: 3.11 Sen (4 rolling qtrs.) Estimated FY 2024 EPS: 6.0 Sen P/E Ratio using FY 2024 Estimated EPS: 7.08 ROE (%): 18.29% NTA/share: RM 0.17 Share Price range (1 Year): 25.5 Sen to 46 Sen
A new integrated resort by billionaire Enrique Razon's Bloombery Resorts Corp will open in Manila later in 2024, while up to eight more casino projects are being planned, Mr Alejandro Tengco, chairman and chief executive of state regulator Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (Pagcor), said in an interview a
Following the Company's announcements on 28 August 2023, 29 August 2023 and 4 September 2023, the Board of Directors of RGBI wish to inform that the matter in reference to RGB Sdn Bhd and Dato' Seri Chuah Kim Seah with the authority, has been completed and resolved, with no further action on the part of the authority.
RGB International– BUY (Jack Goh) • Well-positioned to capture the exponential slot machine growth in ASEAN gaming jurisdictions. The ASEAN gaming scene, especially in the Philippines, remains highly charged with aggressive gaming capacity expansion and post-pandemic replacement cycle. Hence, RGB is poised to largely benefit from this trend. Note that RGB has >70% market share in the Indochina and the Philippines’ slot machines markets. • Sequential years of lucrative earnings base in the making; on track for record-high earnings in 2024. RGB’s sales, support and marketing division is poised to deliver sales of about 4,500 slot machines for 2024 (vs 1,500-1,700 units before the COVID-19 pandemic). Meanwhile, the concession-based technical support and management division has been recovering progressively and is set to recover to 80-90% of 2019’s profitability levels in 2024. Including RM8m-12m in interest income (5% interest on RM160m-246m net cash) and contributions from the engineering services division, RGB is forecasted to achieve a record-high profit of RM113m in 2024. • On cloud nine after securing massive SSM orderbook from PACGOR. At end-May 24, RGB revealed that the group secured a RM383m (US$81.3m) contract from Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR) to supply 1,968 electronic gaming machines and accessories. We believe this is to support PACGOR’s modernisation programme which includes revamping the gaming floor and rolling out new slot machines ahead of the privatisation of its casino operations. We expect these orderbooks to be fulfilled and translated into RGB’s earnings in 2Q-3Q24, which will pave the way for RGB to deliver meaningful qoq earnings growth in the upcoming quarters. • Deep-in-value financial matrixes reaffirm our investment thesis. Despite a >40% ytd share price rally, RGB’s bargain valuations of 6x 2024F PE (4x ex-cash PE) still offer palatable potential capital upside. More importantly, RGB’s current net cash of about RM185m (27% of market cap) is more than sufficient to support our 40% dividend payout forecasts and lush yields of 7-8% in 2024-25. Should management raise the dividend payout ratio to 50%, prospective yields will likely be 8-10%. • Maintain BUY and target price of RM0.66, which implies 9x 2024F PE (pre-pandemic mean), 4x 2024F ex-cash PE, and 4.5x 2024 EV/EBITDA.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
ceoshare
546 posts
Posted by ceoshare > 2024-05-21 16:48 | Report Abuse
这个星期可以动到0.45吗 ?