Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-07 12:14 | Report Abuse

A longer term view on MAYBANK is their long term business growth / return on capital.
My gut feel is the business is still good for around 9% p.a. returns over the next, where roughly 6%-6.5% comes from Dividend Yield and 2.5%-3% comes from Price gains. And the current price since Covid lows in 2020 gives better than average chances to earn substantially higher than 3% p.a. price gains sometime over the next 5 years.

Past 3 years was great opportunity for Investors to accumulate MAYBANK, to earn returns that significantly beat EPF average returns of 5.5-6% p.a. over next 5 years or so.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-07 12:18 | Report Abuse

9% per annum total returns over next 5 years is nothing to scoff at.
KLCI returns past 5 years is negative.
Compare to that, that's around 10% per annum outperformance, although we compare 2 different periods and strictly not comparable.
It should also beat EPF.
However, in Malaysia and in stock market, anything can happen, and one stock ownership is extremely dangerous. Hence, diversify to as a protection of our ignorance - we will never know everything about 1 company ever, even with the most transparent reporting, which Malaysia doesn't quite rank highly globally.

Posted by edwing9981 > 2024-01-07 12:22 | Report Abuse

@dividendguy67 how you get 9% annual return for Maybank? Dividend yield is about 6.4% based on current price.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-07 12:30 | Report Abuse

One thing I love about MAYBANK is that it's not the best stock out there for long term investors.
But it gives a GREAT BENCHMARK to compare against all other stocks.
Especially when your outlook is longer like next 5-10-20 years.
It is not easy, to find good businesses with long term economics that is better than MAYBANK. The basis is returns to shareholders i.e. dividend payouts and price gains.
SELF HONEST is critical - if the investment returns (both DPS and Price gains) are not as PREDICTABLE as MAYBANK, then, consider what if your other investment is really as good as MAYBANK, or you are just a price speculator hoping to sell at a higher price than what you buy. Vast, vast majority of commentators in i3 are short term speculators.

Posted by speakup > 2024-01-07 12:31 | Report Abuse

He calculate based on his entry price not current share price

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-07 12:36 | Report Abuse

@edwing, as long term investors, I measure total portfolio growth as the yardstick for investing. This means if I deposited say RM100k, what returns can I realize 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 20 years later after all expenses.

This means TOTAL RETURNS, coming from both (1) dividend yields and (2) price gains, and measured against something (price, DPS, EPS) that keeps changing every day.

But long term observers note that:
1. If you pull out MAYBANK long term charts over say past 20 years.
2. Compare it's NTA over past 20 years (or as long as possible)
3. You will see that past 3 years prices are at the "bottom half" of its price chart and its NTA keeps rising albeit very gradually and lumpy fashion.

So, it's just a very high level benchmark. In reality your actual price returns will fluctuate greatly. But when we look at the future, the next 5 years, we need to have some expectation that is consistent with other stocks and it's really just a guess. There is no precise answers when looking forward into the future.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-07 12:45 | Report Abuse

My mathematics on Price gains % is a simple one, overlay with conservatism.
It goes something like this.
Consider next 5 years. If it's shorter than 5 years, it's a bonus.
Assume you buy at RM9.
To get 2.5% per annum returns, what price do you need to see MAYBANK trading at?
Answer is RM9 x 1.025 ^ 5 = 10.2.

So, you ask yourself this simple question.

Over next 5 years, what are the odds that MAYBANK will rise to RM10.2?

If you think the odds are near certainty, then, it's a reasonably safe investment.

It's never certainty of course.

Along the way, MAYBANK might crash next 5 years.

So, you really have to pull out long term charts like 20 years to see how badly it can crash and how euphoric it can rise.

But don't get caught up with Valuations and Charts. The 3 most important factors in investing are:
1. Is this a Quality stock? Does it possess superior long term economic characteristics where in 10-20 years time, its business will keep growing and get bigger than what it is today? Has it proven itself via EPS and DPS growth? You'll find in Malaysia, it's extremely hard to find such kind of stocks/businesses, but when you find them, you know you own a Quality business.
2. Is it run by honest and trustworthy managers? This is very hard to judge, but if you see rising EPS and DPS, the odds are it probably is run by above average honest and trustworthy managers.
3. Is the price attractive? The worst mistakes is to buy at the peak and it takes an incredibly long time for DPS growth and EPS growth to catch up and price crashes and stay lower than your entry price. This is what Buffett means by his Rule No 1 - Never Lose Money and his Rule No 2 - Remember Rule No 1.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-07 13:08 | Report Abuse

Talking about Buffett, I urge everyone to read his Berkshire Hathaway Annual Chairman's Letter.
A particularly interesting one is his 2017 letter, documenting the outcome of his 10 year bet with Protoge Partners, that low cost index fund will beat the most brilliant group of hedge funds over the next 10 years - his bet started in 2008.

And true enough, in the first year, the hedge funds beat S&P as markets crashed, and hedge funds doesn't need to stay invested 100% in equities and could even short.

But next 9 years, the low cost index funds beat the smartest portfolio managers as a group.

Over the 10 years from 2008-2017, Vanguard low cost earned 7.7% per annum returns - Buffett described this period as "typical" and "neutral". So, if MAYBANK can do 9% per annum returns long term, that is already superior to the average S&P500 company.

Read the 2017 Annual Report - page 11-13 and page 24-26. Buffett describes it far, far better than I can.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-07 13:14 | Report Abuse

As for the other 5 Fund of funds - the smartest people incentivised by high incentives like 2+20 - over the 9 year period, their investors only earned a paltry 2.2% per annum. Which means the investors would do better to park their monies into FD with no worries.

There are many star hedge funds who earns exceptional returns in the short term. But they are too few and far between. The odds of you identifying them is extremely small over the next 10, 20 years and it's not wise to bet on your selection being right - it's like picking winning horses and it's really gambling.

Much safer to invest in low cost index funds. Over 10 year periods, you are almost sure / virtually sure to beat FD and EPF.

The challenge in Malaysia is that KLCI index is not the same quality as S&P500. And there's no real index funds. Hence, I have to create one myself. The beauty is it doesn't take much effort if you have the right background, training and experience. I hold a very committed full time job and I only have a few minutes each workday to look at the market usually after it closes, and I enjoy spending time on weekends reading when markets are closed.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-07 13:26 | Report Abuse

For comparison, I also own Unit Trusts in Malaysia and life insurance investment linked policies in Malaysia. They are diversified. But because of fees, my own index fund outperform. Plus, I don't have a fully invested mandate that these professionals have - I can sit in huge amounts of cash waiting for the right opportunity for as long as I want and nobody kacau me. So my internal rate of return on my own index fund far outperforms my own unit trust and my own life insurance investment linked policies. Typically by over 5% per annum since inception, and to date is closer to 10% per annum outperformance. Because it's my own funds, I have no qualms to stay in cash waiting for as long as it's needed. Malaysia stock market is not like the US where US can run. Malaysia stock market is more like up down, up down, flat, up a bit, down a bit, down down down, up up then down. It hasn't gone anywhere the past 5 years so, maybe it's about time it goes somewhere but I am not betting on this to happen for my base-case scenario.

Posted by stkoay > 2024-01-07 13:28 | Report Abuse

Wow, superb weekend investing lesson by DividendGuy67.
Thanks for Good 👍 sharing.

Posted by xiaoeh > 2024-01-07 13:34 | Report Abuse

Good Sharing DividendGuy67
Thanks

Posted by edwing9981 > 2024-01-07 16:25 | Report Abuse

Agreed this is a must has dividend stock in portfolio.

Posted by edwing9981 > 2024-01-07 16:26 | Report Abuse

Thanks for good sharing DividendGuy67

Posted by ultranippon18 > 2024-01-07 17:54 | Report Abuse

@DividendGuy67, thank you for share your investment fundamentals

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2024-01-07 18:12 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2024-01-07 23:16 | Report Abuse

Added more MAYBANK shares into my stock portfolio over the last few days between rm9.06 and rm8.89 at the expense of YTLPOWR though I still hold onto YTL stock.
@DividendGuy67
I did notice your 5-year timeframe scenarios and always have MAYBANK stock in mind for long term investment but never above 8% of my total funds while ~67% are consisted of 2 large market cap US Nasdaq (AI related) stocks.
Looking forward in the search of 2 more wonderful stocks at a fair price to include into my stock portfolio, soon.

Posted by stkoay > 2024-01-08 12:57 | Report Abuse

Happy to see some buddies way back in 2014 in KSL forum....now the price starts to run, hope they make some good money.....pak see boh chow kaki.....:p

Posted by M55555 > 2024-01-10 10:27 | Report Abuse

Collecting chance again.

Posted by stkoay > 2024-01-10 14:05 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/2024-01-10-story-h-210588423-WHY_IS_DIVIDEND_IMPORTANT_From_Dr_Neoh_Soon_Kean_s_STOCK_MARKET_INVESTM

Posted by stkoay > 2024-01-10 17:00 | Report Abuse

It seems big institution funds controlled the whole market....
....up or down is for them to play play...haha.

Posted by stkoay > 2024-01-11 20:14 | Report Abuse

PNB sold 20M shares...
ASB bought 40M shares...
.....who sold the other 20M?
....so, ASB is still cash rich.

Posted by nhbeen > 2024-01-11 21:58 | Report Abuse

@stkoay. Just do not comprehend why these financial institutions probably buy/sell huge volume amongst themselves. Any clue?

Posted by stkoay > 2024-01-12 15:28 | Report Abuse

@nhbeen, I am also clueless.
The PNB ASB one was probably off market deal, and it doesn't affect market price.
but EPF sold aggressively during last 2 weeks of December till 3/1/24 and price dropped as a result....and they started to buy from 4/1/24 when price was higher than they sold....
so, in short EPF was selling low and buying high .....haha

Posted by stkoay > 2024-01-12 15:28 | Report Abuse

So, we might as well not bother what they do.....buy if you think the price is attractive and sell if you think it's over bought or expensive....but I treat this as my fixed income, so I am holding irrespective the price.

Posted by Smokey Investor > 2024-01-12 17:25 | Report Abuse

Will continue to do dollar averaging accumulation. any interim up/downs just noise that I usually ignore. lol

Posted by nhbeen > 2024-01-12 22:09 | Report Abuse

@stkoay. Absolutely make sense. I am also the same. Buying in consistently over time and holds for long term, irrespective of its price movement. Over the long term, it will work out handsomely provided that Maybank business performance and profitability maintain its momentum.

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2024-01-15 18:47 | Report Abuse

@stkoay buying between huge funds normal as they want to deprieve retailers from hoarding also their mandate requires them to trade in only big cap stocks. Selling for gains normal for various reasons including dividend declaration and window dressing among others I guess.

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2024-01-15 18:53 | Report Abuse

I also forsee that banking stocks will not gain much this year as well as BNM would be unlikely to raise rates.. The Feds will not raise anytime soon due to huge budget USD30+ trillion expected this year.. the US also may not get the congress approval to continue funding its overseas campaign in middle east as well as eastern Europe. So yeah I expect the rates to at least maintain into 2024. Which would be less favorable to Banking stocks as it has no push momentum unless something unforeseeable happens

Posted by stkoay > 2024-01-15 22:01 | Report Abuse

@jeffchan1901, noted, thanks for sharing.

Posted by derricksyl > 2024-01-16 10:33 | Report Abuse

DIVIDEND COOMING SOON

Posted by Gkhan > 2024-01-17 12:59 | Report Abuse

This year 10rm.wait n see.

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2024-01-18 15:30 | Report Abuse

Maybank very strong lately, only slightly affected by market turbulence. Expect another 30-32 sen dividend to be announced end of next month.

Posted by jazmaster > 2024-01-19 16:33 | Report Abuse

Meaning we will get dividend on March?

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2024-01-20 17:42 | Report Abuse

Over the last 12 years, Maybank investors received their final dividend once in July, 5 times in June, 4 times in May. Last year, investors received their final dividend in March and in 2022, payment was made in April. Perhaps Maybank understood the "hardship" faced by small investors (including ASB investors) and decided to pay early.

Posted by M55555 > 2024-01-26 17:07 | Report Abuse

Harimau sudah bangun. Bulan January sudah mau berlalu.. Feb will be more active.

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2024-01-26 22:22 | Report Abuse

Don't worry about Maybank. It is one of the safest if not the safest stock to invest in. It has never failed to deliver over the past 12 to 13 years.

Posted by M55555 > 2024-01-29 09:52 | Report Abuse

YEH ,Harimau kuat ini hari

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2024-01-29 11:11 | Report Abuse

Finally! some action.. looking good at 9.22.. falling asleep due to not much movement. Maybe this is in anticipation of the second interim dividend likely to be announce end Feb as per last few years. I'll be careful as fund managers can also be starting to set traps for bilis to 'chase high'. I am surprise if much upward movement in price this year seeing likelyhood of BNM rising rates to be very slim in view of easing inflationary pressures and mirroring Fed Reserve. What do you all think?

Posted by foo > 2024-01-29 11:15 | Report Abuse

slowly up

Posted by foo > 2024-01-29 11:16 | Report Abuse

waiting one day 9.99

Posted by OnionK1ng > 2024-01-29 14:18 | Report Abuse

up up up

Posted by stkoay > 2024-01-29 16:59 | Report Abuse

@jeffchan1901, steady rate is good for NIM recovery.
Last year NIM was affected by competitive FD rates among banks and switching of CASA to FD by depositers .

Posted by jeffchan1901 > 2024-01-29 17:06 | Report Abuse

@stkoay Yes agreed. Nevertheless always happy to see Harimau wake up again. It was so slow until I stopped looking at it. If this continues, hopefully it can stay around the 9.50 mark. it's time for this stock to set a new high.

Posted by derricksyl > 2024-01-29 19:41 | Report Abuse

Years end break 10.00

Posted by sorrynaiklorry > 2024-01-30 17:57 | Report Abuse

Actually why you all so happy price increase? Don't plan to buy more in future?

Posted by prudentinvestor > 2024-01-31 16:01 | Report Abuse

Maybank is expected to move up again once its final quarter financial results are announced. Investors can expect a final dividend of at least 30 sen a share.

Posted by derricksyl > 2024-01-31 16:12 | Report Abuse

End of Feb will announce the Final dividend 28 sen to 30 sen

Posted by smartly > 2024-01-31 17:07 | Report Abuse

let me guess. i think will declare 32sen final dividend

Posted by stkoay > 2024-01-31 19:47 | Report Abuse

Yes, I also bet on 32 sen.