Posted by DreamPlunderer > 2016-01-05 13:21 | Report Abuse

yah kah

Posted by yuefei01 > 2016-01-05 13:33 | Report Abuse

Anyone still remember petron s doing major maintenance shutdown for 40 days in 4Q15? That will cause them hell a lot of money and significant drop in profit. almost half of the quarter their plant were shut down for maintenance and need to buy gasoline and diesel for all petron station.

Posted by Alex Woo > 2016-01-05 14:15 | Report Abuse

EPS Q1+Q2+Q3= 75sen ,without 4Q15 eps,the price also still under value. if p/e 10 , the price must become $7.50. u see petdag how much p/e, is 34,eps Q1+Q2+Q3=70.2,price now $24.46

Posted by Alex Woo > 2016-01-05 14:18 | Report Abuse

if p/e 15 , price is $11.25, that's why this few weeks many people bought this share.

Posted by Alex Woo > 2016-01-05 14:21 | Report Abuse

i think the price min can go up tp $8 anytime.

Posted by AllWin > 2016-01-05 14:26 | Report Abuse

yuefei, pls share the news link.

Posted by Chewchew > 2016-01-05 14:28 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/01/05/petron-sees-huge-potential-in-lubricant-business/?style=biz

Posted by yuefei01 > 2016-01-05 14:55 | Report Abuse

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/petron-malaysia-seeks-nearly-430-100556586.html

Posted by ladyluck > 2016-01-05 15:07 | Report Abuse

yufei that news already past now is 2016 YEAR JAN...

Posted by yuefei01 > 2016-01-05 15:16 | Report Abuse

I shared it for AllWin

Posted by luckycharm > 2016-01-05 16:31 | Report Abuse

between i believe PETRONM still have room to zoom....lets the game begin ...

Posted by luckycharm > 2016-01-05 16:53 | Report Abuse

phewit....today closin cantik...

Posted by ladyluck > 2016-01-05 17:11 | Report Abuse

let those seller buy back at higher price....then we can move higher ^_-

Posted by stmah > 2016-01-05 17:13 | Report Abuse

im new kids on the block.. lets hope the price can shoot up like PETDAG... woohoo..

Posted by kahhoeng > 2016-01-05 20:49 | Report Abuse

Guess that's why PetronM is making so much money lately!

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/saudi-aramco-raises-asia-oil-pricing-amid-higher-refiner-profits?type=Corporate

Saudi Aramco raises Asia oil pricing amid higher refiner profits

DUBAI (Jan 5): Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, raised pricing for all February oil sales to Asia amid higher refining margins in the region. It kept levels unchanged for most grades sold to the U.S.

State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. increased its official selling price for Arab Light crude sold to Asia by 60 cents a barrel to 80 cents below the regional benchmark, it said in an e-mailed statement. The company, known as Saudi Aramco, was expected to narrow the discount for Arab Light to Asia by 55 cents a barrel, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of six refiners and traders.

The profit that refiners in Asia make from turning crude into gasoline and diesel rose from US$15.93 per barrel on Nov 30 to US$17.66 per barrel on Dec 31, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in OPEC, won’t limit production and will seek to supply any demand from the market, Ali Al-Naimi, the country’s oil minister, said Dec 30 on state television. The country pumped 10.25 million barrels daily last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided last month, to set aside any formal target for production. The group has exceeded its previous target of 30 million barrels a day since May 2014, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Supply Glut

Brent crude tumbled 35% last year, as Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC chose to protect their market share instead of cutting output in an effort to support prices. Brent dropped from more than US$100 a barrel in July 2014, to trade at about US$37 on Tuesday, amid a global glut.

Saudi Aramco reduced the premium for Arab Extra Light crude to the U.S. by 50 cents a barrel to US$2.35 a barrel more than the benchmark, and kept price differentials for all other grades to the U.S. unchanged from January.

The company widened discounts for sales of all grades of crude to Northwest Europe for February, while keeping discounts for all crudes but Arab Light unchanged for buyers in the Mediterranean region.

Middle Eastern producers are competing increasingly with cargoes from Latin America, North Africa and Russia for buyers in Asia, its largest market. Producers in the Persian Gulf region sell mostly under long-term contracts to refiners. Most of the Gulf’s state oil companies price their crude at a premium or discount to a benchmark. For Asia, the benchmark is the average of Oman and Dubai oil grades.

Posted by Kelvin Chan > 2016-01-05 23:26 | Report Abuse

Yuefei, petronm is the only one who's r not keeping any expensive old stock. it's had cleared all b4 maintainance. Within this bad periods, petronm is the winners.

Posted by kahhoeng > 2016-01-05 23:34 | Report Abuse

kevin chan, every refiner keeps stock! And their stocks should adopt FIFO accounting practice (first in, first out), i.e., old stocks are sold first. Refiners with retail presence benefits from recent managed float gasoline and diesel pricing mechanism, i.e., price for this month is based on last month's price. When crude price is on a downtrend, PETRON is benefitting from selling stock at a marked up price, so long crude price is on a downtrend. If crude oil price is on a uptrend, the benefit from managed float price mechanism will be gone. Though, since crude oil is still expected to be on a downtrend or flat at best, this should bode well for refiners, especially when the refiners are enjoying high refining margin, see above news I posted earlier... just sharing what I have learnt, do correct me if I were wrong, thanks!

Posted by yuefei01 > 2016-01-06 00:33 | Report Abuse

Kelvin, you are right that normally petronm keep very low level of stock at just about 2 weeks of required gasoline for their petrol station. So crude oil price fluctuation will not have significant impact on petronm. However, it will be difference for Q4. Try to think if your plant going to shutdown for 40~45 days next month, will you keep stock? Petronm will not keep crude oil but have to keep the product like gasoline, diesel and gasoil. Maybe not the physical stock but in supply contract. Other refiner will sure raise the price cause they know petronm need it. Good article from Kahheong tell us that refinery margin is sky high in Q4 (margin only less than USD 8 per barrel in Q3, some month even as low as USD2). This mean that petronm possible buying expensive gasoline to sell in their petrol station (just my assumption). Refiner like petron should do well in next few quarter before new refinery commission later this year and 2017. Even with new refinery capacity commission, still widely believe that refinery margin can maintain at USD 6~7 if not significant increase in crude oil price which is still profitable for refiner. I sell petronm because I see better opportunity in other refiner and not because petronm prospect is not good.

Posted by yuefei01 > 2016-01-06 00:39 | Report Abuse

And you can notice that most of the petrol station in Malaysia is having Euro 5 diesel. First with BHP, the PETRONAS and now Shell in Dec 15 (I think shell upgraded their plant facility during their maintenance shutdown in Q3). So, soon petronm going to upgrade their facility too to meet Euro 5 standard. They will need big capex for the upgrade. Maybe they upgraded it during their maintenance shutdown in Q4 last year.

Posted by yuefei01 > 2016-01-06 00:43 | Report Abuse

That is the fundamental. But Malaysia stock only follow chart and petronm is still technically uptrend maybe until they declare a not so good result next month.

Posted by Kelvin Chan > 2016-01-06 09:12 | Report Abuse

Yuefei, is this a maintenance break or purposely cleared the stocks for a good defensive of CPO?

Posted by Kelvin Chan > 2016-01-06 09:13 | Report Abuse

N not 2 week of keeping stock, is 3 days only actually.

Posted by yuefei01 > 2016-01-06 09:25 | Report Abuse

that is major maintenance shutdown. normally only shutdown once in every 6~8 years for maintenance, DOSH inspection (Malaysia regulation), vessel heat exchanger cleaning, system upgrade to meet new environmental regulation, Euro 5 diesel etc... one turn around shutdown could cause few hundred million and some company will spread the cost to 4 quarter so that their account will look better. Maybe you are right it is only 3 days but cant remember where I read it is 2 weeks.

Posted by yuefei01 > 2016-01-06 09:28 | Report Abuse

Petron is petroleum crude oil refinery and not CPO. CPO refinery will not need this kind of major turn around cause their cost of shutting down is low and they can shutdown anytime.

Posted by Kelvin Chan > 2016-01-06 09:29 | Report Abuse

2 weeks u r rite, but the management change it to 3 days

Posted by Kelvin Chan > 2016-01-06 09:30 | Report Abuse

Happy trading all

Posted by vicky168 > 2016-01-06 09:34 | Report Abuse

Well, all I can said is that this share hasn't achieve its target price yet. That's why it climb up further 0.10 this morning. No point arguing, let's wait and see the results. They are adjusting their share price which is undervalue for years. You will never lose by keeping PETRONM.

Posted by kahhoeng > 2016-01-06 09:35 | Report Abuse

yuefei01, thank you! You are right, I almost miss an important piece of information.

Posted by kahhoeng > 2016-01-06 09:36 | Report Abuse

kelvin Chan, is there anywhere to learn the 3 days shutdown? Thanks.

Posted by yuefei01 > 2016-01-06 09:50 | Report Abuse

vicky168. you are right that we will never lose keeping this stock as it gain a lots of new customer in their campaign in Q4 (short term cost will be high to run the campaign cause they giving all kind of voucher and high loyalty point collection) but good for long term. Now their refinery don't even having enough gasoline to support their petrol station and need to buy from other refiner. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/petron-malaysia-seeks-3-6-020313908.html. One concern is how our government set the gasoline price. I think Shell CEO complaint a lot on the refinery environment in Malaysia that is difficult to make profit.

Posted by yuefei01 > 2016-01-06 09:53 | Report Abuse

I am still pumping petron gasoline even I have sold all their share in pass few days. : ). The loyalty point collection is the higest around all the petrol station.

Posted by Alex Woo > 2016-01-06 09:54 | Report Abuse

price new hight $5.72

Posted by ladyluck > 2016-01-06 09:56 | Report Abuse

petronm wow....rm 6 comin....

Posted by kahhoeng > 2016-01-06 10:25 | Report Abuse

after listening to yuefei01's comment, I sold half of my Petron at 5.72 to buy the same amount of Shell to spread out my risk of refiners...

Posted by vicky168 > 2016-01-06 10:26 | Report Abuse

Yup, RM6 is coming and maybe will hit by end of today

Posted by Faizul Phg > 2016-01-06 10:37 | Report Abuse

Ready to rm 6.00

Posted by keepcoming > 2016-01-06 10:45 | Report Abuse

i didnt hentam alot, only 10 lots :(

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2016-01-06 10:55 | Report Abuse

Fantastic run! If eps again circa 25, that 1.00 ringgit by Q4.
@ PE 10 that's 10.00!

Possible?

Posted by vicky168 > 2016-01-06 10:58 | Report Abuse

I will hold until 7.50, just bought back 5.50 and it will take time to climb up to my target price. Record is go up 0.50 per trading day so let's just wait and be patience.

Posted by Alex Chan > 2016-01-06 10:58 | Report Abuse

That will explain the frantic buying..

Posted by Alex Chan > 2016-01-06 11:01 | Report Abuse

Counter quite illiquid. Up to operator to push...
not much free float

Posted by vicky168 > 2016-01-06 11:05 | Report Abuse

Today quite slow maybe those funds manager still didn't wake up and it will be better in the afternoon usually

Posted by luckycharm > 2016-01-06 12:05 | Report Abuse

undervalue stock....keeping finger cross...

Posted by Alex Chan > 2016-01-06 15:13 | Report Abuse

Quite convince the coming Q results would be good.
insiders buying.....

Posted by vicky168 > 2016-01-06 15:18 | Report Abuse

That's why don't sell so fast, it will continue to climb up further

Posted by Alex Chan > 2016-01-06 15:49 | Report Abuse

Hahaha...look at the buying frenzy

Buy some more?

Posted by Alex Chan > 2016-01-06 15:56 | Report Abuse

Wow...single digit seller left

Posted by keepcoming > 2016-01-06 16:04 | Report Abuse

no more handbrake?

Posted by stmah > 2016-01-06 16:18 | Report Abuse

huat arr...

Posted by cmLai > 2016-01-06 16:21 | Report Abuse

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