Crack spread correct down from USD32/bbl to USD27/bbl over the last few day is considered very normal after the spectacular surge from May. Don't have to cry until the house come down (some said cry father and cry mother). Just keep your mind cool and see the historic numbers below : (note : Avg crack spread (based on Spore Mogas 92 unleaded (PLATTS) Brent ) for year 2013 to 2022 which are computed by averaging 12-months end closing numbers of each year) FY2013 USD6.82/bbl FY2014 USD8.03/bbl FY2015 USD12.10/bbl FY2016 USD8.04/bbl FY2017 USD10.34/bbl FY2018 USD5.82/bbl FY2019 USD4.90/bbl FY2020 USD1.44/bbl FY2021 USD7.78/bbl Average 2013-2021 : USD7.25/bbl -------------------- Q1 2022 USD13.53/bbl YTDMay22 USD17.67/bbl Today USD27.43/bbl You must go to match the earnings of Petron and HY to the respective years' crack value and convinced yourself that these refinaries still made reasonable/good amount of profit during those years when crack spreads were below USD8/bbl most of the time! Barring any exceptional expenses or loss, Petron and HY only need crack spread of about USD2/bbl to breakeven. So, no need to cry father, cry mother, cry grandfather and grandmother too ! Stay invested and avoid the trap of manipulators/sharks who are waiting for you to dump. Numbers can not lie, human being do.
Hope this would not happen… But history is always repeat .. Petronm is the next topglov in make …
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stingray_ea stingray_ea still DONT FEEL any strong sell signal trigger for "Petromn" yet.
selling Petromn is like catching a falling knife for shorty. Good luck to you if you dare ...
Anytime Petronm price will bound from here to rm 10 to rm 15 like what happen to topglov early of cavid-19 (rm 4,5 to rm 7) And rm 15 to rm 30 due to BONGUS (nonus) issue
I personally feel many people in this forum bark the wrong tree. HY and Petron are NOT crude oil producers who benefit or suffer from crude oil price up /down. Instead, they are refiners who derive their profits from refining activity and selling the refined products. What matter to them is the difference between crude price and the refined products prices ie crack spread! crude oil price movement (up or down) merely impact the inventory value of physical stock and outstanding crude oil purchase contract. The risk of crude price change can easily be covered by prudent hedging and this is what both Petron and HY do. Also, the conversion cost of turning crude into refined products is merely about Usd2/bbl . Therefore, gross profit at refinery plant level is crack spread minus about usd2/bbl Crack spread level at USD28 today present insane amount of gross profit! Bear in mind that average crack from 2016-2021 was merely $6.39 and yet HY and Petron made reasonable level of profit. Simple enough reasoning ?
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
investor2021trading
999 posts
Posted by investor2021trading > 2022-06-08 10:28 | Report Abuse
follow d market! buy low sell high! that's d game in stock market to make a decent profit! especially for fuel stocks, don't sell if u lose money!