Hahahaha MoneyMakers, Make up your mind, is it USD 10 or USD 15?
Just to help you: In term of profitability vis-a vis crack spread : Petron's NPAT : Q12022 - RM106.4 mil , 2021 - RM238.5 mil , 2020 - (13.3 mil) Avg crack spread : Q12022 - about USd14 , 2021 -about USD8.3 , 2020 -aboutUSD1.70
Posted by investor2021trading > 8 hours ago | Report Abuse can sailang now touched 7.61!
Posted by investor2021trading > 8 hours ago | Report Abuse sorry, my sailang is to sell n buy on dip for new high!
Posted by investor2021trading > 5 hours ago | Report Abuse back to 7.73 new high as fuel shortage persist! .............................................................................................. Posted by probability > 11 seconds ago ........why worry on hedging loss / gain? Its just the effects of lagging 1 month trailing 3 months profit
Example 1 — Fixing Refiner Margins Through a Simple 1:1 Crack Spread
In January, a refiner reviews his crude oil acquisition strategy and his potential gasoline margins for the spring. He sees that gasoline prices are strong, and plans a two-month crude-to-gasoline spread strategy that will allow him to lock in his margins. Similarly, a professional trader can analyze the technical charts and decide to “sell” the crack spread as a directional play, if the trader takes a view that current crack spread levels are relatively high, and will probably decline in the future.
In January, the spread between April crude oil futures ($50.00 per barrel) and May RBOB gasoline futures ($1.60 per gallon or $67.20 per barrel) presents what the refiner believes to be a favorable 1:1 crack spread of $17.20 per barrel. Typically, refiners purchase crude oil for processing in a particular month, and sell the refined products one month later.
The refiner decides to “sell” the crack spread by selling RBOB gasoline futures, and buying crude oil futures, thereby locking in the $17.20 per barrel crack spread value. He executes this by selling May RBOB gasoline futures at $1.60 per gallon (or $67.20 per barrel), and buying April crude oil futures at $50.00 per barrel.
Two months later, in March, the refiner purchases the crude oil at $60.00 per barrel in the cash market for refining into products. At the same time, he also sells gasoline from his existing stock in the cash market for $1.75 per gallon, or $73.50 per barrel. His crack spread value in the cash market has declined since January, and is now $13.50 per barrel ($73.50 per barrel gasoline less $60.00 per barrel for crude oil).
Since the futures market reflects the cash market, April crude oil futures are also selling at $60.00 per barrel in March — $10 more than when he purchased them. May RBOB gasoline futures are also trading higher at $1.75 per gallon ($73.50 per barrel). To complete the crack spread transaction, the refiner buys back the crack spread by first repurchasing the gasoline futures he sold in January, and he also sells back the crude oil futures. The refiner locks in a $3.70 per barrel profit on this crack spread futures trade.
The refiner has successfully locked in a crack spread of $17.20 (the futures gain of $3.70 is added to the cash market cracking margin of $13.50). Had the refiner been un-hedged, his cracking margin would have been limited to the $13.50 gain he had in the cash market. Instead, combined with the futures gain, his final net cracking margin with the hedge is $17.20 — the favorable margin he originally sought in January.
SINGAPORE MOGAS 92 UNLEADED (PLATTS) BRENT CRACK SPREAD FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)NYMEX 27.429 D USD −0.626 (−2.23%) MARKET OPEN 28.055 PREV 27.429 OPEN
Aiyoyo Mogas92 spread drop again from 28.055 to 27.429
stingray_ea still DONT FEEL any strong sell signal trigger for "Petromn" yet.
selling Petromn is like catching a falling knife for shorty. Good luck to you if you dare ...
Anytime Petronm price will bound from here to rm 10 to rm 15 like what happen to topglov early of cavid-19 (rm 4,5 to rm 7) And rm 15 to rm 30 due to BONGUS (nonus) issue
strong sell signal trigger issued by stingray_ea for INARI (RM4.xx) on last year 2021 Dec before INARI crashed to rm 2.3. There few counters already setup for BIG selling on last year Dec 2021 for this years
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Stock: [INARI]: INARI AMERTRON BHD Dec 7, 2021 2:33 PM | Report Abuse stingray_ea ...run run run ........
Stock: [INARI]: INARI AMERTRON BHD Dec 7, 2021 2:25 PM | Report Abuse strong selling trigger
Stock: [INARI]: INARI AMERTRON BHD Jan 13, 2022 3:37 PM | Report Abuse
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Sslee
6,806 posts
Posted by Sslee > 2022-06-07 15:03 | Report Abuse
Hahahaha MoneyMakers,
Make up your mind, is it USD 10 or USD 15?
Just to help you:
In term of profitability vis-a vis crack spread :
Petron's NPAT :
Q12022 - RM106.4 mil ,
2021 - RM238.5 mil ,
2020 - (13.3 mil)
Avg crack spread :
Q12022 - about USd14 ,
2021 -about USD8.3 ,
2020 -aboutUSD1.70