Posted by pitbull > 2017-02-21 12:05 | Report Abuse

Ron 100
On market ady
Few months ago gov up oil prices
Out let still increase now ard 600 branches..
If this coming qtr also eps 6..
Reasonable price should be 4.8 lo

Posted by pitbull > 2017-02-21 12:06 | Report Abuse

I estimate is very negative results also have to maintain RM 4.8..

Posted by pitbull > 2017-02-21 12:07 | Report Abuse

Abit weird.....

Posted by pitbull > 2017-02-21 12:10 | Report Abuse

PE so low...
DY so good...
Eps not bad...
Petron quite popular..i also use petron
Dividend coming soon...
How come so weird this few days

Posted by pitbull > 2017-02-21 12:11 | Report Abuse

Last week up so fast and strong
This week drop so fast ..

Posted by red_85 > 2017-02-21 12:38 | Report Abuse

drop until you scare ma..shark's plan

Posted by ankahill > 2017-02-21 15:13 | Report Abuse

Wah lao eh..... No brake leh!! :(

Posted by jki3 > 2017-02-21 15:57 | Report Abuse

So tempting...here I come

Posted by Jay > 2017-02-21 16:31 | Report Abuse

testing the strength of your heart, if you really believe in this counter, these few days may be your chance to enter

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-02-21 17:06 | Report Abuse

Entered ... let's try

Posted by lloydlim > 2017-02-21 17:15 | Report Abuse

Qtr results might disappointed, insider selling down!

Posted by sumato88 > 2017-02-21 18:53 | Report Abuse

Petronm and Shell Refining's share price was bashed down yesterday. Checking around and I can't find any reason except the news of new oil refinery to be built in Kedah which I think it is irrelevant as the new refined products are meant for export to China. I also read the comments among the forum members and I think I may offer my 2 cents on the stock.

Firstly, I must declared that I own some Petronm share for sometime. I believe the stock is significantly undervalued (I think the co can make rm200-300m profit a year in 2016 and 2017, which translates to 5-7x PE) as many investors (from what I observed in the forum) kind of confused or misunderstood the business model.

Petronm is an integrated downstream O&G player which owns the oil refinery (process the crude oil into gasoline/petrol fuel, jet fuel, kerosene etc) and the distribution network (petrol stations) to market its refined products to the consumers. Among the two, petrol station is the stable and profitable business where market tend to value this business like a concession. This is evident by the market valuation of Petronas Dagangan which has always been trading above 20x PE.

While for oil refinery, the profit tends to be volatile as the profitability depends on 3 key drivers, namely (1) crack spread (processing margin), (2) crude oil price which will have an impact on its inventory value, and (3) USD exchange rate.

Crack spread can be volatile as it depends on market supply and demand which I gather from my friend who is working in the industry that crack spread has been going up since Nov 2016. From what I understand, crack spread has improved from the avg of USD5/bbl in 3Q16 to USD7/bbl in 4Q16, and now at about USD8-9/bbl. in other words, Petronm's refinery margin will be stronger in 4Q16 and 1Q17 before taking into account the impact on its inventory gain/loss (sometime, overall refinery margin will be weaker even though crack spread remain the same as inventory loss due to lower crude oil price may eat into its refinery margin, this was what happened in 3Q16)

For the inventory gain/loss, like it or not, it is part and parcel of the oil refinery business as the refinery always hold some inventory (usually about 3-4 weeks inventory) to make sure the refinery has sufficient input material to process. Hence, when the crude oil price goes up, oil refinery will profit from the inventory gain, and vice versa. The good news for Petronm is crude oil price has been recovering from less than USD50/bbl in Sept16 to about USD55/bbl now. Hence, 2 out of the 3 key earnings drivers for the refinery biz are in Petronm's favour.

Lastly, we have to evaluate the impact of USD to Petronm's profitability. This is, in my view, the most difficult part to estimate. But if we take a cue from the historical trend, we can conclude that PetronM has a net long exposure on USD after taken into account its hedging position, As i noticed that Petronm always report net forex (both realized and unrealized) and derivatives gain when USD strengthen against Ringgit. Again, USD has been strengthening since Nov16 (+7% in 4Q16 vs 3Q16) which is another positive earnings driver for Petronm's refinery biz.

With all the key operating environments working in favor of Petronm, I would expect a record profit in 4Q16, and very likely a stronger profit in 1Q17 which serve as a key rerating catalyst for the stock. So what is the fair valuation for the stock?

Conservatively, we can assume 10x PE, a valuation between Petdag and Shell refining as it owns both of the marketing and refinery business which was separately owned by the 2 companies.

Posted by Target888 > 2017-02-21 19:46 | Report Abuse

Free fall with high volume, hopefully is just a big shark trick, not quarter result problem.

Posted by zoizai > 2017-02-21 20:07 | Report Abuse

Petdag just reported good quarter results. hope Petronm is same.

Posted by cheoky > 2017-02-21 20:10 | Report Abuse

Dear sumato, any factor that cause crack spread to go upward?

Posted by wltan22 > 2017-02-21 20:29 | Report Abuse

sumato88, all point to good qtr, but yet to see, hopefully everything goes well as your sharing, thanks a lot

Posted by pitbull > 2017-02-21 23:12 | Report Abuse

All point is good...why the petronm drop so serious? Weird

Posted by wltan22 > 2017-02-21 23:41 | Report Abuse

my only advice, if you still think this stock undervalued, if your reason to own this stock still intact, if your answer is affirmative, so take a break, just ignored daily price fluctuations, got time pay more visit to Petron station help a bit the business...wait till QR out then make decision whether the price drop due to company performance or others factor

Posted by sumato88 > 2017-02-22 00:06 | Report Abuse

Just wait for the results, I believe my analysis is right.

Posted by cskok72 > 2017-02-22 01:37 | Report Abuse

sumato88 thanks so much ur analysis is time to add more

Posted by Jay > 2017-02-22 08:20 | Report Abuse

higher selling price and improved margins, let's see will petron follow the same trend

Posted by cheoky > 2017-02-22 08:23 | Report Abuse

Of all positives, any negative on this company? Like year end plant shut down, anything?

Posted by pitbull > 2017-02-22 09:25 | Report Abuse

Negative is share price drop lo

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-02-22 10:15 | Report Abuse

Refinery Plant shut down maintenance is every 3 years once, last one was at 2015.

Whereas few negative part of this counter that I can think of are :

1) share liquidity is not too good, the owner hold 73.39% plus other institutions & long term investors holding, I guess the actual shares actively floating in the market is around15-20% of the total issued shares. Since it is a low trading volume counter, this will easily allow some intended party for manipulation of share prices.

2) earning is quite unpredictable in a way due to the earning is very much affected of fluctuations of oil prices, USD as well as refinery margin.

3) the possibility of privatization. If I m the owner I will consider this option. As the company's asset is undervalue.

Posted by Jay > 2017-02-22 10:38 | Report Abuse

yup why petron is trading at a discount to petdag is not only because they are smaller but also because their earnings are relatively volatile. if they can manage to churn steady profits like petdag then they will probably get re-rate to mid-teens PE

I don't think Petron Corp would privatise it. it's good for them to keep a market presence and be visible since it's a Philippines brand

Posted by cheoky > 2017-02-22 10:52 | Report Abuse

thx for great insights, Yao Zi and Jay. Btw why shut down for 3 years interval instead of yearly?

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-02-22 11:02 | Report Abuse

U shut down only when u need to, it is mandatory shut down for maintenance & safety checks under the regulation.

Posted by NavinShah > 2017-02-22 14:07 | Report Abuse

This stock play and play.

Posted by Jay > 2017-02-22 15:52 | Report Abuse

now I'm really interested to know how the dec results will turn out

Posted by stockraider > 2017-02-22 15:54 | Report Abuse

Raider say coming result...not only good but very good loh....!!
Don miss opportunity by panicking loh....!!

Posted by Risk Rider > 2017-02-22 15:59 | Report Abuse

Don't understand, what if result not good? Curse you? Stockraider?

Posted by Risk Rider > 2017-02-22 15:59 | Report Abuse

If result is damn good, then people will say thank you & you will gain face. Seem like you prefer to take face rather than conservative.

Posted by stockraider > 2017-02-22 17:04 | Report Abuse

Fly robbin fly....!!
Fly Petron fly....!!
Up..up...too the sky...!!

Posted by AllWin > 2017-02-22 17:05 | Report Abuse

Superb result

Posted by bluelight > 2017-02-22 17:05 | Report Abuse

Way, super good result, Q4 EPS 41.71

Posted by stockraider > 2017-02-22 17:05 | Report Abuse

Raider already say Petron....result very good mah....!!
People simply panic...lost opportunity loh....!!

Posted by zoizai > 2017-02-22 17:08 | Report Abuse

Wowo tmr gap up

Posted by IamGoogle > 2017-02-22 17:21 | Report Abuse

stockraider, good call!

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5343253

Posted by IamGoogle > 2017-02-22 17:26 | Report Abuse

Go back to 7 again?

Posted by investers > 2017-02-22 17:27 | Report Abuse

yesssssssssssssss

Posted by Op3rs > 2017-02-22 17:28 | Report Abuse

sky is the limit

Posted by cheoky > 2017-02-22 17:28 | Report Abuse

yessss. raider here. sure shoot up

Posted by cheoky > 2017-02-22 17:32 | Report Abuse

thx forumers here... baru masuk dah ini macam bagus.

Posted by gcke > 2017-02-22 17:35 | Report Abuse

QR just out 558% increase in profits viv-a-vis QR 2016.Good luck.Smile.

Posted by cheoky > 2017-02-22 17:36 | Report Abuse

compared with esso, this san miguel company keep paring down debt and with government subsidy removal. It is a free market to price their end product. Jelly good. All good quality company checklist ticked.

Posted by zoizai > 2017-02-22 17:39 | Report Abuse

Rm7 in one week

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-02-22 17:48 | Report Abuse

As long as oil price next month is 52 and the next Q should be similar.. Anyway the OPEC have the goal to stabilise oil price above 60... yeah i hope this stock go to above 7..

Posted by Jay > 2017-02-22 17:49 | Report Abuse

wow mind blowing results, congrats to all petronm shareholders

Posted by boon1515 > 2017-02-22 17:52 | Report Abuse

so few days back host purposely press share price and kick ppl out

Posted by zoizai > 2017-02-22 17:55 | Report Abuse

tmr top up. rocket lauching tmr.