In q2 2012, Genting Singapore made S$311 million ($250.03 million)in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), or core earnings, in the quarter
Genting Singapore Limited (SGX: G13) has really outdone itself this quarter! Their adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA), which is really a fancy way of saying their profit before certain expenses, reached S$345.4 million in Q3 2023.
Genting Singapore EBITDA exceeded SGD 350 million in the latest quarter ended Sept 2023, hence it has outperformed my earlier projection of yearly EBITDA of SGD1.4 billion (as stated in my earlier report in Jan 2023).
In the absence of any further lockdown, Genting Singapore earnings will only expand in coming years as it rolls out Sentosa 2.0 expansion till 2031. It is scheduled to add over 700 hotel rooms in next few years from current 1,600+ rooms, so a 43% expansion in next few years.
It achieved non-gaming revenue of SGD230 million in the latest quarter, annualised to SGD920 million. This non-gaming revenue is expected to increase by 40% or more in coming years due to the scheduled hotel room additions, or an increase of SGD400 million a year.
It achieved an EBITDA margin of 50% in the latest quarter, assuming the same EBITDA margin, its EBITDA is going to increase by another SGD200 million a year just from non-gaming segment alone.
If its gaming segment also increases by similar quantum, then total EBITDA may hit SGD1.8 billion in a few years time. Genting Singapore is still in net cash position with SGD3.3 billion of cash, so enterprise value would top easily 8 x SGD1.8b + 3.3 = SGD 17.7 billion.
At current share price of SGD0.99, Genting Singapore is worth 12.094b x SGD0.99 x 3.50 x 52.5% = RM22.0 billion to Genting. This is already higher than current market cap of Genting at RM18.22 billion.
This means investors are getting Genting Malaysia, Genting Plantation, Resorts World Las Vegas, and its oil & gas and power businesses for free!
@pang72, don't forget the potentials for Genm to successfully dispose off its Maimi land in next 2 months and clinching of a lucrative New York full casino licence.
If US Fed starts cutting interest rates from March 2024 as the market prices in now, we can expect meaningful reduction in interest expenses in Genting from 2024 as it gradually rolls over its debts.
Singapore dollars again rose past RM3.50 yesterday. With Singapore economy expected to grow strongly, Singapore dollars are expected to remain strong in coming years.
Singapore dollar was exchanging at RM2.20-2.25 back in 2012-2013, and has strengthened over 59% against the ringgit over the past 10 years.
Who knows how much Singapore dollar may be by 2031-2033 when Sentosa 2.0 expansion completes and Genting Singapore EBITDA hit SGD1.8 billion a year. Genting Singapore is expected to remain in net cash position by 2031-2033 as its operating cashflows are strong (over SGD1.0 billion a year from 2024) and sufficient to fund its expansion capex (remaining SGD5.3 billion to be spent over next 8 years). Allowing for 4 sen dividend every year (or SGD480 million), Genting Singapore will still have over SGD500 million operating cashflows a year to fund the capex (averaged at SGD660 million a year) as it has net cash of SGD3.3 billion now.
So by 2031-2033, Genting Singapore free cashflows may top SGD1.8 billion a year (as no interest expenses but may have interest income), and if multiply by the exchange rate then say at SGD1.00:RM4.00 then it may have free cashflows of RM7.2 billion a year available for dividend payouts. For its 52.5% stakes in Genting Singapore, Genting Bhd will be entitled to potentially RM3.8 billion of dividend payouts from Genting Singapore (if 100% payout ratio). That would be almost RM1.00 per share of dividend for Genting Bhd shareholders every year then!! At 5% dividend yield, Genting Bhd could be trading at RM20.00 per share then.
@keyman, I am not sure if there will be another lockdown in Singapore, no one knows at the moment, I guess this is the risk investors need to assess for themselves. I have no answer to that.
I think if you are long term investors, at least with a view to hold it till 2031 to see through the Sentosa 2.0 expansion, you need not worry too much for another lockdown.
Just like what we have seen, Genting share was trading at as high as RM9.00-10.00 before the pandemic then collapsed to a low of RM3.00 now up to RM4.70. If there were to be another lockdown in 2024 (though I think the chance is low), the lockdown would not be as severe as in 2020. And you would bet Genting share price would at worst fall back to RM3.00 level.
But if the lockdown did get lifted off in 2024, and Genting Sentosa 2.0 expansion gets full stream ahead in coming years, then we may potentially see Genting share price rising back to RM9.00-10.00 level as before the pandemic, or even higher to RM20.00 if its expansion plans go well ahead.
UOB Kay Hian keeps ‘market weight’ on aviation sector, cites Chinese visitor arrival driven-growth..
In his Dec 11 report, Chen notes the increase of Singapore’s air traffic recovery being more driven by Singaporeans travelling overseas, which have “ already exceeded pre-pandemic levels at 105% to 110% in 10MFY23.
The number of foreign visitors to the city-state has also slowly but surely been recovering at less than 80% of pre-pandemic levels, except for Chinese visitors, who are currently only at about 50% of pre-pandemic levels.
“Before the pandemic, China was Singapore’s largest source market of international visitors, forming 19% of total international visitor arrivals to Singapore in 2019.
Nothing changes ……same old arguments (green wave, Corona virus, tax, etc etc) ….put forward. Fact remains the same…share price is determined by supply / demand ….. more sellers than buyers emerge after small gains from previous price falls ….
Ask yourself. Will it file in bankruptcy even the worst senario. If yes, then just sell it. If no, what to worry for. Sorry to say, I am still waiting for cheap tickets 😉
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
lek1957
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Posted by lek1957 > 2023-12-16 00:03 | Report Abuse
I wish to join genting telegram group, anyone can share the links pls.