Upgrade to OUTPERFORM from MARKET PERFORM due to the recent retracement in share price with an unchanged Target Price of RM1.15. We believe its outlook is improving but still highly dependent on the execution of LRT3. Our TP implies FY20E PER of 7.8x, which is in-line with our ascribed multiple of 6.0-11.0x for the construction space.
GKent’s 1HFY20 earnings of RM25m (-44% YoY) were below both ours and consensus estimates mainly due to lower than expected contribution from LRT3 PDP JV as the project will only resume in 4QCY19 (as opposed to previous guidance of mid-2019) and back to full swing in CY20. YTD core PATAMI decreased due to lower contribution from all segments. GKent is targeting to grow profit contribution from its metering division to 50% (from 20%) in the short term and to 75% in the longer term given the slowdown in the domestic rail construction industry. The company is looking for potential M&A opportunities and also may form strategic alliances to expand geographical markets and diversify products range. Cut FY20-21 earnings by 17.6% and 6.6% while increase FY22 earnings by 7.4% after we adjusted LRT3 contract progress assumptions. Maintain BUY with lower SOP-driven TP of RM1.41 (from RM1.43) after earnings forecast adjustment.
I foresee if the pilot test is successful, and once the policy is set for all water meters in malaysia to be updated with the new solution, it will be huge market, and LRT3 is not recognised yet, which is anticipated as management has alluded the project to start in 2H19.
The smart meters are an add-on to existing meters that offer fixed network reading or mobile network reading, which allow state government to bill household remotely. It also enable authorities to access water consumption pattern and detect leakages in distributions system, thus address non-revenue water problem.
Already Gkent successful secure maiden award by Selangor state government in Sept 2019 to supply, deliver and install 5540 water meter fitted with these smart metering solution
short term water meter target increased by 2.5x (from present 20% to 50%) and long term by 3.75x (from present 20% to 70%). Water meter contribution presently average annual sales RM140mil and profit RM30mil. So in short term for water meter annual profit will be increased to RM75mil and long term to RM112.5mil assuming no change in margin. But margin could be improved since they have agreement with Honeywell to produce precision components locally. Believe this target growth include the smart meter.
Affin Hwang said it believed that the government is looking to revive the Klang Valley MRT Line 3 (MRT3) project, which will integrate the existing MRT and Light Rail Transit (LRT) lines as well as new lines being built such as the MRT2 and LRT3, in the Klang Valley.
Smart cities: 5G will enable wider applications in smart city initiatives from water and waste management, traffic monitoring to enhanced healthcare facilities. Smart Cities will enjoy the benefits of the new generation network as more and more sensors make their way into city infrastructure. Not only will 5G be capable of handling the massive data load, but it will also make the integration of various intelligent systems, constantly communicating with each other a reality, bringing the vision of a truly connected city closer.
Maintain outperform with an unchanged target price (TP) of RM1.15
Management is hopeful that the design for Light Rail Transit 3 (LRT3) can be finalised by year-end, while renegotiating a new contract with its work package contractors. Upon completion of its redesign, management hopes to resume work in full swing by early 2020.
As for future jobs, management is actively participating in more water and rail-related projects, which are water treatment plants overseas and locally with a total tender book of RM3.5 billion.
The rail projects eyed in the near term are mostly from overseas which are Singapore Land Transport Authority Track Works, and Bangkok Orange Line Second Phase Track Works.
Lastly, we do not rule out the possibility of acquisition of water-related companies overseas as part of their strategy to expand their footprint beyond Southeast Asia.
The future seems bleak for gkent. Those who bought above 1.60 must plan for a good cut loss point. No news regarding megaprojects for now. Technical also looking like its going down or sideways for some long period
Description Interim Single-tier dividend of 1.5 sen per ordinary share Amount RM 0.015 Ex Date 09-Oct-2019 Entitlement Date 10-Oct-2019 Payment Date 31-Oct-2019
I would say a company that buys back its own shares at low cheap prices, announces a dividend of 1.5 cent per share (8 million in dividends), is looking at a 6.7% dividend yield (based on last year dividends, this year definitely less), a return of revenue income from LRT3 and MRT2 next year (11 billion and 1 billion), a new product in smart meter (which they are local market leader in hongkong and singapore and malaysia) with technology sharing with honeywell (market leader in automation), where the smart meter sales are already in place with gkent to cover (exclusively sell) asia territories 26 in total including 15 new asian territories (https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/george-kent-gets-honeywell-licence-manufacture-water-meter-components), guaranteed sales with more in the years to come.
I really dont see why you feel the future is bleak. But to each his own.
All I see is discount day, and more purchases on my end.
All the announcements have been made, now is just to collect and wait for the incoming revenue realization and profit returns.
Did I mention that GKENT has more than 235 million in cash on 70 million debt? With such a shareholder centric approach, and good well run management
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gorengking69 The future seems bleak for gkent. Those who bought above 1.60 must plan for a good cut loss point. No news regarding megaprojects for now. Technical also looking like its going down or sideways for some long period 30/09/2019 5:06 PM
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
RainT
8,448 posts
Posted by RainT > 2019-09-25 09:05 | Report Abuse
oh no