Gkent please don’t involve in any new PH gov contracts... focus in smart water meter is good... Become a water meter” king” , don’t become a political slave beg for contracts then U turn here Uturn there... God bless Gkent
is there any +ve catalyst such as new projects,better QR, a strong major holder, to support n lift the share price, in the next 3 mths ? if not, the technical chart shows that it can only kept sliding lower n lower.
If dont take small lose now, dont cry mother,father, blame this,blame that, blame PH govt, etc but not blame ownself, for investing in false HOPE.. The whole macro environment is darkening, n who knows what will happen nxt year ...
Yes, no need to worry about short term volatility, gkent had gone up from 1.01 and up to 1.09 . So is it a good deal or a bad deal? My advice is to ignore the noise from oil, pH, bursa and trade war. Just look to the business and understand the business. The main points to predict and understand is still the same.
1. Is gkent still doing lrt3 job? If they are what is the difference between PDP and turnkey? And in essence, once it is complete what will be gkent net profit to shareholders? 2. Will the net profit and revenue be more in the next few years than it is today? 3 will the dividend be more or less in the next few years compared to previous year? Will they declare no dividend? 4. Will the profit from water meter business alone be enough to pay growing dividend? Will they have competitors in their industry portions?
Everything else is an assumption. These are details which you can ask and find out from the AGM and their competitors and subcontractors.
Please note that the price going up and down has come before quarterly report announcement, meaning it is all speculation. Quarterly report is the real fact on business performance.
Again I always say if the previous quaterv report was good enough for you to make an investment ( which I did from rm 1.12-1.15), if the share price drop without news or announcement from management, it can only mean 2 things, a change in short term perspective ( meaning discount day), or a change in insider information trading ( which is why I rarely buy into smallcaps).
In either case investment should be done upon valuation of information and long term prospects, not based on charts, patterns and conjecture.
pertaining to your points , i would share as follow
1.turnkey or PDP will have profit margin effect to GKENT this is why PH gomen want to review all the big projects and cut companies who get high margin frm this project
2.the profit and sales will be more until the construction project is finish. take note that GKENT do not have high replenish order book as before already, and PH gomen also do less big project already so can good until finish the rail project only or miracle happen (PH turn smarter focus on economy, focus less on racial issue)
3.dividend is tie with company prospect, profit and cash flows. Bleak future prospect (after rail project), less profit, less free cash flow, less dividend additional points : current dividend yield is of past event, it does not necessary reflect future dividend payment also
4.undeniable water meter is part of GKENT competence but dont forget all the years before this the big star contribution is from construction segment and not water meter, profit margin from water meter also far lower than construction segment
what i try to means is GKENT will be good until rail project only,water meter is so so (dont lie to yourself, open eyes see big big)
I've remember Gkent boss said they are interested to tender for more rail projects in Thailand and Singapore. So far talk only. Not easy. Hopefullyy they can get one.
1.turnkey or PDP will have profit margin effect to GKENT this is why PH gomen want to review all the big projects and cut companies who get high margin frm this project.
Lim pointed out that the government and Prasarana Malaysia Bhd had renegotiated the 6% fees for the PDP, which amounted to RM948mil.
“The payments will now be based on a fixed fee contract, which is tied to fixed costs, and this means the 6% fee term does not exist,” he said.
Previously their fees is only for project delivery partner, meaning is consultation and management fees.
Now we are looking at fixed contract of 16.6 billion, so their profit margins are based on this fixed contract, meaning based on renegotiation ( reduced underground, reduced tracks and size of stations, reduced number of stations), anything gkent makes will be based on how efficient they are in handling these costs. I will be the first person to say it is being handled very well.
At a turnkey contractor profit of 10% ( overall), they are looking at additional profit of 1.6 billion for the same project which is even better. Take note on the reduction of size and expenses of lrt3, it will play a huge portion in the final net profit due to mrcb and gkent. If we just look at gkent only on PDP end management they still earn 948 million, the cost cutting measure will see them earning even more.
A. KUALA LUMPUR (April 12): Malaysia Rail Link Sdn Bhd (MRL) and China Communications Construction Co Ltd (CCCC) have signed a supplementary agreement pursuant to the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) project, which will proceed at a lower cost of RM44 billion
How sure are you gkent will not get a portion of these two mega projects (90 BILLION altogether)? A company profile with a track record of completing lrt, mrt2(2022) trackworks and trains, and lrt3 I believe will always have a higher chance than other local companies that do not have a track record. If course I may be wrong as usual and rainT already has the full list of subcontractors.
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2.the profit and sales will be more until the construction project is finish. take note that GKENT do not have high replenish order book as before already, and PH gomen also do less big project already
A. Water meter B. Water treatment plant construction and operation C. Hospitals construction D. Railways systems
I think a company like this is far better than those that just concentrate on building condos and houses and hotels and stuck with high assets but huge debts.
Who would you rather have building your railways? Binapuri,spsetia, Sunway, gamuda or Gkent?
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4.undeniable water meter is part of GKENT competence but dont forget all the years before this the big star contribution is from construction segment and not water meter, profit margin from water meter also far lower than construction segment
The one that made Gkent investable is not LRT or construction. Its the risk ratio. Price right now, is the value of the meter segment. The construction segment seems to have been discounted after PH takeover.
From what we know, government squeeze gkent for discount, they squeeze us for discount. But still fair price, so its win-win.
Hopefully I can get more info from forumers on the status of these projects 1. Design and Build 150-Bed District Hospital in Tanjung Karang (progress claim submission) - 277 million 2. Design and build 220-bed Hospital Endokrin in Precinct 7, Putrajaya from Public Works Department -364.9 million 3. the mrt2 package ssp-sy-204 (1 billion JV CCCC and gkent) still to be completed in May 1st 2021 (work package for trackworks, maintenance vehicles and work trains for the entire 52.2-km Sungai Buloh-Serdang-Putrajaya (SSP) mass rapid transit (MRT) alignment, also known as MRT2.
anyone have any idea what is going on with these other contracts?
LRT3 total budget RM16.6bil with RM11.8b awarded to MRCB-GK JV, balance RM4.8 for land acquisition and finaning costs. So, we are looking at profit on the RM11.8b.
MRT2 progress reached 36% as in May 2019 to be completed in July 2021 (refer annual report 2019)
Hospital Tanjung Karang to be completed in November 2020 and Hospital Endokrin to be completed in January 2020, according to annual report 2019, both on schedule.
THE Mass Rapid Transit Sungai Buloh-Serdang-Putrajaya (SSP) Line (MRT2) work progress is 54% complete with its Phase 1 set to begin operation in July 2021.
According to MMC-Gamuda KVMRT (PDP SSP) Sdn Bhd, the contractor for the underground portion of the MRT2 project, Phase 1 will start from the Sungai Buloh station to the Kampung Batu station, while Phase 2 is slated to begin operation in July 2022.
-The transfer of the production facilities is currently in “full swing”
-The Group is also making preparations to establish a strong presence in the “15 new territories”.
-The Selangor state water authority in September 2019 “awarded a contract” to the Group to supply, deliver and install 5,540 water meters fitted with the Group’s Smart Metering solution for a six-month pilot test.
-results are expected to improve in the second half of the financial year as export orders that were anticipated for the first half of the year are realised.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Vincent Soh
711 posts
Posted by Vincent Soh > 2019-09-06 19:22 | Report Abuse
I hold since 1.19 and drop till today.... My heart is bleeding. happy holiday