Its heart breaking that I sold off all my 10000 e&o shares last week at 2.73. Am glad for all that gained today. But beware guys, interest rate hike is around the corner.
Brother Saturn hit it again....both on OPR and Chinese peg currency at Franfurt....the link below was written yesterday but I read it like 4 to 5 mths ago...dejawu?.....Kekekeke
Now that Part 1,2,3 all happened or happening, what are you to do? Not too long ago I wrote a few pieces of article on hedging and merger and mentioned I believed that M&A will prevail because of tough times ahead. For those who recall, very well and those who don't, can read them in my posting. I am revisiting this subject as most of you would have noted that there are a lot of M&A happening. This is not rocket science and neither am I a clairvoyant in stock market. This is simply just a cycle in the market place and everything goes around.
Why am I writing the follow up? I am writing because some of you asked on what to expect next, now that the stories are coming together.
Of late we have seen quite a few M&A, and quite a few hedging in property. I believe the M&A portion I have already explained very detail however the hedging portion is from the down stream is something I would like to write about today! When I talk about hedging, I mean purchasing of property, landed or ur landed assets. This may be anywhere in the world however i still believe Malaysian property is still at the exploiting stage. (Pls read my earlier comments on infrastructure in Malaysia which will bring up all the property, ammenities, value, foreign investment and etc )
Why ppl hedge? I have explained GOLD as a form of trading especially by Chinese and barter trading in Messopotamia with the earliest recorded history way back in 6000BC. Once trading in whatever form was accepted, ppl started realizing the worth of their valuable and assets. These assets maybe natural resources or produce that is unique to certain countries and became an object of value during a trade or exchange. When that happen, ppl started to learn hedging. But in today's world that is without borders in transaction, this may only hold true partially depending on the commodity. The worlds top 2 commodity Gold and Oil will prove otherwise. Reason being, the top countries producing them may not be the countries with top reserve. Example top Gold producing may be China but they may not be the one with the highest gold reserve, in fact they are at the 6th spot. Hence if we understand the analogy above, we would understand that value is determine by the world market, culture , supply & demand, enforcement and control, most traded Commodiy and so on placing a value on them. So comes the next question, why not money?
Why not money to hedge? Money is hedge thru FOREX and is also traded. Base on what I have written, should give you a good idea why Malaysian ringgit is so weak........trade, supply and demand, enforcement and control etc, all play a determining factor and hence to hedge RM would not be very wise unless we see something of a great difference in the way we do business and being decisive in our business and govt policies. From a foreign view of Malaysia, with its indecisive Govt policies, would already give you a good understanding as to WHY?
So what else is there to hedge? OSK has sold it Financial Business and was left with dwindling ideas which include Property and Developement. Similarly with Felda who has got loads of land and decided on Property and development. And many many more examples but this two maybe close to our hearts at this point. While the World population is at all time high 7 billion, the stats show it will be exponential growth moving forward. And while our fathers, grand father and great grandfathers each have build, bought or own a property this is unlikely to sustain the growing population. Ppl are looking at better, more convenient, more growth, more more more of a property in today's market hence the value is also driven up up up on top and above the inflation. So for those who are waiting for property prices to fall, should expect on properties in lesser demand areas to drop because like any valuable commodity like gold and oil, it will attract foreign buyers especially with our weak ringgit.
So the strategy employed by developers moving forward is to create alliances, partnership or M&A for all the reasons I have stated. For those who are asking and saying loans are difficult to get, and so on being the reason for property prices to fall better think again.......
When I first wrote about M&A which was quite some months back, almost a year ago to be precise, was in recognition of 3 things. 1) the enviroment of late 80s and in particular 97 Asian financial crisis in which Malaysia slipped into recession 2) the difference in Forex, indices and information gathering inclusive of data mining between the 90s and those available today 3) the structure of organized information from no 2 with more intervention from World Bank, IMF, FED Reserve, EU, and of course the variable equation opened by China into the market
I have time and time again mentioned Oil, Gold in many things I talk about. These are manipulated commodity in the market place and Malaysia is just a follower. There are many more however these two commodities are close to my heart. What these means is when the leader does the manipulation, by the time it trickles down to the follower, the leader is ready to play the next card. Hence a quick reversal can happen and many are left caught in a dilemma. This bring along contrarian views like those shared especially in some examples of CPO where many ppl start collecting when the prices are down due to fear selling of further downside or prolong sideways trading. With the contrarian views backed by trends and period in charts together with fundamental analysis, these contrarian have formed a group of leaders armed with the right strategy to combat these manipulators. We have seen very honorable investors who are able to foresee the trends whether in the charts or environmental to recognise when to move in with their buying spree. I think you know who these ppl are. However there are also those who manipulate further by sending their own message out only to sell when the price goes up.
Cont'd Ever heard of the saying, you cannot fight the market? When the rogue manipulator in our local market want to manipulate, they sell a couple of thousand shrs to provide a springboard to ensure momentum after they send some rumors out prior. Thus when you see a shr moving up at low volume, these could mean two things. One being some one is collecting and do not want to be notice and they buy many rounds as if they are different buyer as opposed to one buy queue of high volume. This enviroment is very well suited if there are large volume of sellers. This is because when there is a large volume of sellers, they can buy many times for the same price. Second, those that want to move the price with the springboard method mentioned. This enviroment is very good if sellers are low volume so that the rogue manipulator don't need to throw out to much money to move the price at their expense. Thus if you see a large volume at a price of seller (some call it road block), it is difficult for manipulator to move the shr price and normally is not desired.
Now coming back to the 3 points that I mentioned in the beginning of this writeup. We are now at the new cycle after all the recession woes, European/ECB, woes, Feds reversal of interest rate, China market and manipulation etc, . A new cycle only happens after a great furore,calamity, acute changes and never ever during boom. During Boom, everyone is too busy making money and during CRISIS everyone is downsizing or finding reactive solutions to their woes and this will be the period with the most ups and downs which we have seen. What I am adding here is what happens after the BOOM and after the CRISIS which is what I wrote on about the M&A. This is much the same as what the world did after the last Tsunami where they took steps to strengthen themselves with early warning system and a warning to the world on nuclear plants. A lot of standards and action were derived and taken as prevention and safety measures.
So in terms of M&A in Malaysia and the world, it's is a form of regroup, strengthen and prevention of certain weakness. While the world in general has change since the 80s and 90s compared to today, the behavior of during BOOM and after CRISIS, never change. This brings me to my second point, with all the data mining, charts, fundamental analysis, indexes, etc that we are now experiencing the intermediate cycle of recovery before the next BOOM. However, the period of BOOM will be indeterministic. Reason being the coming BOOM is unpredictable is because many things have been introduce into the global system/market. Example cashless transaction, global cashless transaction, new minting like Bitcoin, new denomination, new indices and banking like Islamic system etc. now that we are at the RECOVERY, taKing position and strengthening is key thus M&A will ensure the next anchor and position. Of course the above is considered the past now, and while recovery, what is thought to be the best position is collecting the undervalued stocks. Last Friday, there was one which I cover amongst the many undervalued stock covered by many finacial gurus here, however my intent here is not selling that stock but understand what will happen next.
Not that I m back writing but it gets pretty boring fishing in the high seas. At one point I thought I caught a whale when my Bauer or was it my Cabela felt stuck like an anchor station at the base. These are mighty fine rods and for it to snap, it really must have taken a beating. However it turned out to be a Pollock quite common in the US waters. So how did it turn out that a superb rod can snap by a common fish? Well my crew mates said they saw a swordfish ate my catch when I was abt to reel it in just before the rod snap. So it was actually the sword fish that did the damage and not the pollock. Pollocks are actually fishes that makes a large catch by US fisheries. Still considered valuable however a prize catch like a swordfish would have seal my status as a super fisherman...one who is a first timer in the US high seas.
Looking back at the past two hrs of action , I m back to my chair now almost feeling sea sick. What if i did a first timer catch of a swordfish...what should I do if I had reel it up ......what what what? Well it didn't happen....but if it did, I would not have the time to contempt with the risk that I would have faced.....I would have reacted like the trained investor I am.......I would have first ascertain the size first and wait and wait and wait until the swordfish gives up and then reel in the prize catch. I will NOT however take the quick approach of shooting or maiming the creature as it takes away all the fun of the battle of the will and wits. I have landed BIG fishes in the share market before and acknowledge they don't come often. I have seen some like Daiboichi, Axiata, RHB.....and the latest Ecoworld and I believe Insas could be a potential. Those mention had achieve more than 40% in a short stretch albeit some did above 100% like Axiata even at rights issue at 1.80 and see what it is today. We term them as marathoner. There are those Marathoners that can do many sprint to complete the marathon. These are desirable stocks and I do not distinguish them.
So it is obvious you can see a BIG fish, so you thought....I was there and I thought I only caught a pollock but had the swordfish tugging away at my catch. In most cases, our catch are not what it is.....most of the time it is indirect approach that helps us catch the BIG fish. Example if CIMB takes/buyout RHB who will benefit immediate in the share price? I think the answer is obvious and we need to see these few steps ahead instead and unlike my case where my catch was mistaken all because I did not have my eyes on the prize catch and did not even notice it was a price catch but focus on my broken rod.....
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Pitochu
125 posts
Posted by Pitochu > 2014-07-07 20:10 | Report Abuse
Share market is serious lor....and you write broadcast.....