Do you have live feed? The major shareholders are pushing hard the mother today, so they able to sell higher price for the warrant. That's their plan for next week..
Of late we have heard many market concerns and ppl who derive at very complex conclusion on what will happen next in the global economy. These same ppl who concluded the negative outcome pointed to many materials they obtain on the web and thru self interpretation, they derive at the point that market will collapse.
Market will probably collapse one of these days but not to the conclusion derived by these individuals. Many market factors hv pointed to an over saddled market and one that has been overly loaded with complex derivative and global pressure. After all, in a globalise market, we are all guilty of crossing border with our investment may it be trading market, property market, exports, money in foreign bank, forex, even mutual fund, foreign commissions and etc.
So in that sense, we are all stakeholders in the global market and in someways contributed to the flow of globalise money. Some may not agree, but think of it this way, if money that has been paid in foreign currency and do not comeback to Malaysia such as Sales Commisions can be viewed as a form of hedging. While also property purchase in a foreign country in view of faster growth in their market is also a form of outflow. In addition, money used in trading say DJIA market, is also churning an economy outside Malaysia. Hence while we blame foreign investors for pulling out, we should also view ourselves as global stakeholders. After all we are where the money is good and we should not blame the foreign investors for doing the same.
If such is the way the market performs, it is no wander why US is trying so hard to moderate this part of the world with TPPA? This is because in a free market, that is not moderated properly, IP ( ntellectual Property) may not exist and market pioneers and principals will not survive. If this happens, R&D will die while the market will slowdown due to lesser and lesser development happening. We hv seen in the case of China copying IP with far less of their own R&D expenditure at the expense of their competitor. Thus, as we move along, those companies that are sucked dry by the parasites will not be able to compete on cost while the parasites that prevail would not be able to contribute in technology moving forward. Hence everything will slowdown at some point and the world will need to establish more global policies to ensure our continued growth.
Now if we rewind and go back to TPPA as one source of this policy before all those that I have mentioned happens, we are all le to secure more gradual growth and healthy development and completion. Right? So what has this to do with the market collapsing? Everything actually, because as we hv concluded earlier that we are in a way stakeholders of the global market due to our investment nature. Today, to give you an insight, without moderation, oil price can be at the mercy rogue conglomerates as we are seeing right now.
Saturn, with ur statement below another 30sen since 24jan ...can sell ...hehe
Oh dear the blind wants to call others blind. PakCC, you must understand behavior like the burger is because he bought into it but wrong timing. In 1 year the shr went up and down 3 times and peak at 3.18. If he didn't sell, nobody can help. how is it possible that each hike is always 30 to 35cents and ppl don't make money? The only way is they never sell. Is that you cheeseburger?
Next for E&O is the beginning of the tender process. The tender by itself is not important however the progression is. The progression here means that if the tender process proceeds, they will likely meet the March tender award. Upon the award would mean that contractors are in place and E&O can proceed to planning the re-valuation methodology. One of which is to sub-sell the first piece of the parcel to another developer. That would be one of the strategy however not the only one because pending on the land valuation at Tanjong Tokong maybe another.
The former is mooted because it will allow E&O to hv a pre-valuation of their other phases to come which will also give investors the confidence and at the same time hv the monies needed to spur and accelerate the proceeding phases. While a growth in neighboring Tanjong Tokong maybe preferred as it gives both trajectory of projects to come and the expectation of the demands.
As optimistic as I am, I am also a cotrarian. While I believe the property sector will do well in the first quarter due to the GST in April (ie beating the GST deadline), I am also very very cautious of March, April period this year. Being a contrarian does not win me many votes and neither friends but it does win me other aspects of abundance.
Now coming back to March, while many view the ushering in of Wooden Goat beyond Feb CNY will bring many luck and wealth but in my view many challenges will stack up against Malaysia and the world at large. This however does not mean that market will collapse as many suggested. While I am no clairvoyant, but I do know that the cautions that has been thrown in the wind will soon catch up. This will be the time to wait and buy in as many investor are at the sideline awaiting this opportunity while they sporadically bet on exports businesses as the ringgit weakens.
This bet will be due also because many 1st Quarter results will be expected and includes many of the indexes. In addition, the ECB will also be put in the spot to make a decision once the financial indicators of Europe is out. You can choose to bet before April but your loses may be greater than if you win if the odds decides to fall on the weaker indicator. Furthermore the KLCI will be very heated by then as GST will be implemented In Apr (the mth after the first Q) YOUR BET to put in before Apr will be one which may run IF GST is delayed. Currently this will be the best news for everyone in Malaysia but the PM is adamant to proceed.
While many depend on TA and FA to guide their trading, not everything is TA and FA? For instance, Ecoworld with a PE 4x EnO and still gaining much support. They probably favor the TA side because the TA would look upon the volume of support of the price. Example if many buy in say at 2.26 and subsequently it drops to 2.24 and more buyers come in. This would indicate support but more so the interest to get in. This interest is more important because the buyers will take in whatever the seller throws and turn it into support. This is just an example.
If you understand the above, this type of buying is like futures. Even if you see the PE being extremely high, the buyers continue to support. After all, we know that at the present rate of debt management, the futures may be inflated many times. so while many are awaiting for property to comedown, and worst, drawing parallel to Singapore maybe in for a rude awakening. For those who wish to understand what I am saying, pls read on my older remarks which I believe the solution is those property outskirt where prices may be more accommodative. Note at this debt rate, the country can be indirectly bought over. The Chinese are buying and invading Iskandar, Sabah, Penang and the middle eastern is tackling our Golden Triangle. Even Melaka properties are taken up many by Singaporean. Hence it may not be literally taking over Malaysia but our economy will depend on them. When such things happen, it is as good as selling the country because our debts may not be sufficient to cover.
seilok is correct. At RM2.25 the warrants is worth around 60-65sen depending of what historical volatility one use for Black Scholes Model. At 30% is around 60sen. At 35% is around 65sen. At RM2.37, the warrant should worth more but it must be able to sustain. That said, the premium at 65sen is around 37% at current price, which in my opinion is not excessive. So I'm not surprise if share price for mother sustain, the warrants will go pass 65sen eventually
Nice reading of some feedback. Tq at least some are thinking with some strategy and technical reference. Base on my take on the warrant, a very obvious 3 things will happen now to narrow the premium ie to slowly reduce the premium 1. Warrant price come down 2. Mother price go up 3. Mother go up and warrant come down same time
My ideal first drop should be 13 to 18% before it goes below 10%. Why? Because the 30cents factor on mother I mentioned earlier hwas been breached yesterday. (2.04 - 2.37)
According to Impartiallity below....Warren Buffett must be stupid to want to buy in companies in Europe if base on Impartiality. But then again the statement from him on 3M Shrs to TT by Sime is wrong. How to challenge high grade investors like Warren lah??
impartiality Sime sold the 3M back to TT because they have genuine concerns about his ability to manage the company due to huge amount of time he spends in London. His misadventure into London will prove more costly than ever. The europe economy has not bottomed out and the contagion from the Greek Exit will cause more chaos than ever. UK is a matured economy with minimal GDP growth anyway. GDP has not grown above 2 percent since the Lehmann collapse anyway 30/01/2015 12:07
W00761kit I don't know how you can lose ? The share went up to 3.18 and you didn't sell? Then went down to 2.04 and you didn't buy? And then went up to 2.59 and you didn't sell? And then went down to 2.04 again and you didn't buy? What about the free warrant you got? I am confuse how you can lose 40k with 60 lots and how you manage to accumulate at 2.80 all the way when the price was fluctuating.
You shud count 10/11 for those bought before ex date lar. And avg with those bought after ex. Then only factor in the warrant. Just now you say loss 40k now you say make 5k. You sure Boh you know what you are doing?
In my opinion, there are a lot self fulfilling prophecy here. No one stock can be operated forever, if there is any in the first place. Volatility is part of the game. Real investors just have to have a longer term vision to reap the reward. I'm not a shareholders yet, but warrants do look interesting to me.
For those who are still not clear what to do, pls refer to my earlier writing on deadline which was Feb5. That was for the warrant. After all my target at best was only 43cents and when it surpassed that to 55cents, it was a no brainer for me to sell. Free warrant for me is exactly it....FREE! Many will argue that the warrant will have a higher gearing ie 45cents + 2.60 = 3.05 while the current mother is only at 2.30.. Not even meeting the exercise price for warrant leave alone the warrant. Sometime back when E&O had their rights exercise, there was an automatic conversion clause, if the price of the right was at a certain price with the mother. That focus and conversion has been achieved. Today the free warrant serve as a supplementary and at best with very high gearing ie premium to mother. If the cat and mouse chase is on between the mother and warrant, I believe the gap has to be much narrower in this case. As with my earlier example of the rights issue, there was focus to bring the cat to the mouse. However in this case, if allowed to distant, the cat may not see the light of the mouse because there is no reason or interest to do so. If the premium was reduce and at certain point overtake by the mother ie mother higher than the warrant + exercise = negative premium, this will be the time they need to increase the market capital. I don't think it will be very long. The run up must be more attractive to convert than to play macQuarrie group just entailed a target at 3.50 within 1year. This is more positive than the AMMB or CIMB or RHB because I know all of their reasons for projecting those number. CIMB and RHB have bothe lowered their target for that same reason while AMMB and ECM are playing up. (Find out their relationship)
There are more retail sellers than buyer (insti or retail) just by looking at numbers of units per order. Again, someone has successful creates enough fear to pull out the sellers. Strong and long term investors should pay attention to this counter.
You cannot view a premium for a warrant without looking at its gearing. Secondly, you cannot view warrant without understand the the historical/implied volatility on the warrant. Because of its gearing is 5x; i.e. Every 1% up in mother share will result in 5% up in warrant "theoretically", so you cannot say 31% premium is expensive. You have to look at the premium relative to gearing.
The warrant present much better return to the mother share.
The option 1 & 3 all pointed to warrant going down just to narrow the premium. That in my opinion will only happen; ie, the premium between the mother share and warrant is narrowed ONLY when the warrants are In The Money. Thereafter (after RM2.60), you are buying intrinsic value of the warrant and yes the premium will narrow. But until then, the choice is obvious. Warrant will give higher return compare to mother share.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
PakChuiCheng
110 posts
Posted by PakChuiCheng > 2015-01-30 14:56 | Report Abuse
For property buyers in UK snapping up ...temberang again.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2790403/how-foreign-buyers-snapping-starter-homes-uk-advantage-booming-property-market.html