this is just a short term trade, anyone buy in remember to lock profit (even just 50-100 ringgit), then shall cabut. SA tips for big kaki only, earn a few cents will sell (small fish buy at high price will be trapped)
Johan's NAV is 0.32 so I am very sure some people are already slowly collecting. The venture into property is a good idea but at a wrong time. However, Tan Sri is smart to think how to move things. He has a lot of China connection now thanks to GK's rail bids.
How ever you want to slice the numbers, the conclusion is still the same. Johan Holding is a loss-making company which most probably will still be loss making in FY19. Even after excluding the RM64.3 mil losses in investment securities, the company would still have a big loss of almost RM30mil from its operation from Jan to Sept of 2018.
What is more worrying is the company potential to fall under the PN17 status (once they come out with their audited 2018 account) given that the shareholders fund is already below the 25% limit of the total paid up capital based on the 3Q18 report. Shareholders fund is only at RM93mil vs share capital of RM381mil which means the shareholders fund only represent 24.4% of the paid-up capital. Investors just need to be reminded of the risk in investing in PN17 company by looking at Perisai Petroleum which face delisting in February (trading has already been suspended).
If you are looking to diversify your portfolio outside of Johan Holdings (due to its earnings uncertainties and potential risk of given the PN17 status) I would recommend you to look at MBMR.
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.9x PE (based on target FY18 profit of RM145mil. 9m profit is already RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.7x BV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year's 4Q17.
FY19 growth will be driven by the still high demand of the new Myvi and the newly launched SUV Aruz and also the newly revamp Alza in 2H19. The recent announcement of closure and potential disposal of the loss-making alloy wheel manufacturing business alone is expected to boost the company’s profit by an additional RM20mil. I am projecting a profit to shareholder of RM170 mil for FY19 which at the current price values MBMR at only 5.9x PE.
Please go through the analyst reports (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp) and do your own analysis before making any decisions. There are 8 analysts in total covering the stock with most of them having a TP of above RM3 (all have a buy rating). The average TP for the 8 analysts is around RM3.50.
In the event of PN17, what would Tan Sri do? Will he be willing to relinquish all his own shares by delisting the company? Adding the number of shares of his wife and all friendly parties, the last thing to do is to de-list I think.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Ongjimmy
72 posts
Posted by Ongjimmy > 2018-05-16 12:37 | Report Abuse
Hold on guys.....it's accelerating now !!!
Gonna fly .