Without taking into account the future disposal or other corporate exercises relating to the Indonesian land, I arrive at my short term TP of RM0.85 (approx 8% discount from NA of 0.93 after disposal of Klang land to 1MDB)
But longer term, market should price in the possible land disposal or any corporate exercise at some sort for its land in Indonesia. Mid-long term TP = approx RM1.50
"Without taking into account the future disposal or other corporate exercises relating to the Indonesian land, I arrive at my short term TP of RM0.85 (approx 8% discount from NA of 0.93 after disposal of Klang land to 1MDB)
But longer term, market should price in the possible land disposal or any corporate exercise at some sort for its land in Indonesia. Mid-long term TP = approx RM1.50 "
You should feel sick after you read today Star newspaper about who is behind the Tadmax company. Will it be another case like what happened to PKFZ is in the offing? Offloading an unwanted lands to government at attractive price. A land where no one wants it if you sell at market value. But 1MDB wants it.
That was one of the reason why i wasn't sure for the Indonesia land whether will it be an outright disposal or other sort of corporate exercise.
Having done further research into it, this is my interpretation now:
It seems like the land is owned by Indonesian government and not TADMAX. However, TADMAX's two 90% owned subsidiary (which they acquired in 2011), holds the concession rights to undertake timber logging and oil palm plantation for 35 years for their 40,000 ha of land each (upon issuance of approval).
Based on the independent valuation report submitted to Bursa at the time of acquiring the two subsidiaries back in October 2011, the estimated income receivable from extractable timber on the said land was RM872.7 million per year for 6 years.
Assuming income from oil palm plantation only come in from year 10 onwards and peak at year 16, a quick calculation on my side give it a valuation of at least RM1.5 billion (using conservative numbers). To put things into perspective, 80,000 ha is almost equivalent to the combined planted area of IJM Plantations Berhad and Sarawak Plantation Berhad. Due to their 90% shareholdings and potential JV of some sort with experienced oil palm companies, 50% of the RM1.5 billion already give it a price tag of RM750 million, which is equivalent to approx RM2/share.
Of course that is assuming that TADMAX obtains all the approvals in a timely and orderly manner.
50:50 chance but looks bearish coz co losing money at 2.33 cts per share from the quarterly report . The possibility of moving sideways and going south further is great . that was the reason why it was traded down in the closing hours....
We refer to the article in the New Straits Times dated 6 February 2014 entitled “ Tadmax in RM1b land sale talks? ”.
The Company wishes to state that it is in very preliminary discussions with various parties, including Felda Global Ventures Bhd, with regards to its holdings in Indonesia. No definitive terms have been discussed with any party to date and discussions have been generally exploratory. The Company also further wishes to state that it has not appointed any Investment Banker for the purpose. As such the Company wishes to inform that there is no basis for the contents of the aforesaid article.
This means there still discussion with FGV regarding the Indonesia land deal. there will still be news coming soon
Based on ta, there will b another uptrend so now im looking closely the support n where is the bottom price or how long will it trade like crabs. Maybe not long as there is stil shortage of one upleg before it goes in sleeping mode. My 2s only.
There is a piece of very good news in Business Times today ..... After reading it, I believed this counter still has plenty of potential to move up as they intend to also sell the irian jaya land and focus in malaysia? The new owner also wants to strengthen their shareholding in this counter.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
ronaldo96
763 posts
Posted by ronaldo96 > 2014-02-21 11:06 | Report Abuse
Ahairytrader, what is the TP for you?