Posted by Nepo > 2020-12-03 14:17 | Report Abuse

Mahathir also disagrees with Langkawi's tobacco tax
December 03, 2020

https://www.enanyang.my/%E8%A6%81%E9%97%BB/%E6%B5%AE%E7%BD%97%E4%BA%A4%E6%80%A1%E8%A1%8C%E7%83%9F%E8%8D%89%E7%A8%8E-%E9%A9%AC%E5%93%88%E8%BF%AA%E4%B9%9F%E4%B8%8D%E5%90%8C%E6%84%8F

Posted by pBlue > 2020-12-03 14:21 | Report Abuse

The high taxes on cigarettes in 2015, that caused the rise of illegal cigarettes is still there. All the 2021 budget has done is put a tax on vape market, so the 'natural' reaction is for the emergence of illegal e-cigarettes and vape liquid.

I think the only way to return the tobacco market to pre-2015 profitability is to simultaneously reduce taxes on legal cigarette, increase crack down on illegal cigarettes and for BAT to branch into E-cigarettes.

Anything less, and I don't don't think BAT will recover to RM40 per share value.

The currently economic conditions are pushing people to buy cheaper and cheaper cigarettes which traditional legal cigarettes cannot compete. Market force just make illegal cigarettes too profitable.

Illegal cigarettes accounted for 65% of all cigarettes sold in Malaysia and by the end of 2020 JIT estimate that number to reach 70%.

I think we should be cautious.

Posted by freeze789 > 2020-12-03 14:21 | Report Abuse

With or without will not impact much on BAT.

Posted by Donator > 2020-12-03 15:02 | Report Abuse

Conclusion ... all in....

Posted by UncleFollower > 2020-12-03 15:28 | Report Abuse

If you know vapes..BAT's Vuse Vape is the best there is. It trumps Juul. This is an entirely new revenue stream very soon

Posted by UncleFollower > 2020-12-03 15:28 | Report Abuse

But stingray is right...

ax or not tax is not an issue.
Budget not an issue .
Illegal cigarettes market is not issue.

Posted by UncleFollower > 2020-12-03 15:28 | Report Abuse

Valuations je

Posted by UncleFollower > 2020-12-03 15:29 | Report Abuse

Soon Uncle Koon come, standby

Posted by wallstreetrookie > 2020-12-03 15:31 | Report Abuse

People are weird. When share price down and on discount, so many naysayers. Say sunset industry la die la bankrupt. Now share price go up. Suddenly say BAT has bright future, good dividend yield and post high TPs. Haha

Posted by UncleFollower > 2020-12-03 15:34 | Report Abuse

wallst your statement is generally right...but not applicable to BAT forum. BAT shareholders have been very consistent on both sides. The bulls have been bulls at 10 and 12 and 15. The bears have been bearish at 10 and 12 and 15 too lol

Posted by UncleFollower > 2020-12-03 15:39 | Report Abuse

Don't break is ok...give others a chance to enter. Afterall stingray tried very hard to inform the public on this great find.

Posted by Larrytrader > 2020-12-03 15:39 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Yslow20 > 2020-12-03 15:56 | Report Abuse

More than 2.5m share transacted. Means many strong investors is buying BAT now. They will buy gradually in order to get better price.

Posted by wkc5657 > 2020-12-03 17:00 | Report Abuse

tomorrow possible red, but likely a small red....or close flat

if lagi green, ho seh liao.....

Posted by 360Capitalist > 2020-12-03 17:07 | Report Abuse

Looking at BAT volume today, any price pull-back will be well absorbed by investors. We may see Gap-Up Opening tomorrow.

Posted by Moneyking888 > 2020-12-03 18:32 | Report Abuse

Steady..... 2moro I put up again to 13.50

Posted by Fundamental123 > 2020-12-03 19:08 | Report Abuse

Hi Guys,

If you are experienced players on TA, you would find this counter shares have aggressively been collected for investment since this week. Who have collected the shares ? Of course , not retail investors but big players for short term and funds for short- middle term investment.

Good luck !

Posted by We Can Bull Cather > 2020-12-03 20:12 | Report Abuse

Fundatemental123, does this mean that, they the big players goes off (after short-middle term), the price will start dropping and thats when an investor should start considering letting go?

Posted by Fundamental123 > 2020-12-03 21:08 | Report Abuse

Hi Cather,

You should apply financial performance and business fundamental knowledge, study analysis with TA skill, market trend etc to for your investment TP like RM16-18 for example.

Big players ( experienced players) are always with their share app to monitor the market trend ; do not forget, they just want to take good profit when the share price hit certain very high price on some calculation or on some serious bad news for this company; do you remember BAT share price dropped from RM30 plus to RM10.00 was due to illegal cigarettes and vape issue but it is good chance to collect as its fundamental has not changed.


this counter is different from other counters as BAT is a OLIGOPOLY company which is very good for uptrend on underestimated performance as market is in bull run.( yeah, now market is on the bull run).


Funds managers move are quite clear on collecting particular during bull run.

Very Low price with good fundamental ( like oligopoly business) plus current good news ( do your homework as there is no free lunch in share market) is good for experienced players to collect with share trend analysis APP.


We Can Bull Cather Fundatemental123, does this mean that, they the big players goes off (after short-middle term), the price will start dropping and thats when an investor should start considering letting go?

Posted by freeze789 > 2020-12-04 00:23 | Report Abuse

https://focusmalaysia.my/business/the-virtues-of-bat-malaysias-award-winning-annual-report/

Posted by williamh > 2020-12-04 05:54 | Report Abuse

Last calling before bat break 16 and closing in toward 20.

Posted by 360Capitalist > 2020-12-04 09:41 | Report Abuse

BAT new TP set by Analyst at RM17.48..

Posted by freeze789 > 2020-12-04 09:46 | Report Abuse

360Capitalist where you get the info?

Posted by We Can Bull Cather > 2020-12-04 10:00 | Report Abuse

Hi Fundamental123, thank you. I am very new at this and very willing to learn. Thank you so much for taking your time to even type out such a long, concise answer to a random someone that you don't know at all. You're awesome.

I will definitely do more research and keep reading and reading! :)

Posted by somo1 > 2020-12-04 10:00 | Report Abuse

By CIMB. Also published on today's Edge Daily.

Posted by 360Capitalist > 2020-12-04 10:19 | Report Abuse

...

Kamarul also raised his TP on BAT to RM17.48 — representing 38.1% upside from the current closing price — from RM12.65 previously, with an unchanged 'Buy' call, mainly due to the upward revision in BAT’s long-term growth rate to 3% from 1%, on the back of improving sales prospects. At the time of writing, this TP revision is the highest seen among those who cover the stock.

Posted by 360Capitalist > 2020-12-04 10:21 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/after-pushing-past-consensus-target-26-jump-past-month-will-bat-continue-climb

Posted by freeze789 > 2020-12-04 10:22 | Report Abuse

Yah saw it.. thank you somo1.

Posted by 360Capitalist > 2020-12-04 10:22 | Report Abuse

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 4): The share price of British American Tobacco (Malaysia) Bhd (BAT) has jumped 26% in just a month to its highest in six months, which saw the only listed tobacco manufacturer on Bursa Malaysia adding over half a billion ringgit during the period to its market capitalisation, which now stands at RM3.62 billion.


The stock was the fourth largest gainer by value on Bursa Malaysia yesterday. It rose as much as 7.97% or 96 sen in the morning, before paring some gains to finish at RM12.66 — still up 5.15% or 62 sen from Wednesday's close.

From the trough of RM8.80 on March 23 of this year, the counter has climbed 43.9%. Still, it is down 10.1% year-to-date, from when it was trading at RM14.08.

Sponsored Content

Achieving maximum e-learning potential
The Covid-19 pandemic has seen even the most conventional industries ­— from events to classroom learning — go online. Technology played a huge role in supporting teaching and learning continuity during the recent lockdowns. And now, it is changing what and how we learn.

READ MORE
Once trading at its all-time high of RM52.61 in 2014, BAT has been hovering below the RM20-level since August 2019, as its earnings declined amid a continued contraction of the legal cigarette market.

The recent rally in its share price, however, has pushed the stock past analysts’ consensus target price (TP) of RM11.08 by 14.3%, with the stock surpassing the TP of 12, out of 14 research houses that cover it, according to Bloomberg data at market close yesterday.

The stock currently has five 'Buy' calls, seven 'Holds', and two 'Sells', according to Bloomberg.

In terms of valuation, BAT is trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (TTM P/E) of 13.55 times, compared with 11.54 times at the beginning of this year. Still, it is cheaper when compared with its five-year average P/E of 14.68 times.

And with an indicative dividend yield of 7.03%, BAT would be deemed attractive by investors who look for dividend stocks.

Potential earnings upside seen on more effective enforcement activities
In its latest note to clients, CGS-CIMB Research raised its earnings forecast for financial year 2021 (FY21) and FY22 by 4%-5%, as it increased its sales assumptions on BAT's flagship Dunhill and its value-for-money brand Kyo, as sales rebound following the supply disruption seen under initial phases of the movement control order period.

"There could be potential upside to our forecasts. For one, our revised aggregate sales growth of 4% year-on-year for FY21 may be conservative if the Royal Malaysian Customs Department can effectively clamp down on cigarette transshipments next year. Our 3% y-o-y sales growth assumption for Dunhill will not bring back its FY21 sales volume to pre-MCO levels. It is inevitable that more smokers will down-trade or switch to vapes.

"But BAT will be in for a treat, if Dunhill’s sales can grow at a bigger clip than what we have pencilled in. As expensive as Dunhill is, the demand seems to hold steady among the higher-income, older smokers that have associated the brand with “prestige” and “quality”. The group said Dunhill held circa 55% of the legal premium cigarettes’ market share year-to-date," its analyst Kamarul Anwar wrote.

Kamarul also raised his TP on BAT to RM17.48 — representing 38.1% upside from the current closing price — from RM12.65 previously, with an unchanged 'Buy' call, mainly due to the upward revision in BAT’s long-term growth rate to 3% from 1%, on the back of improving sales prospects. At the time of writing, this TP revision is the highest seen among those who cover the stock.

Optimism on the tobacco manufacturer’s prospects came after the government announced measures under Budget 2021 to strengthen enforcement against the illegal cigarette trade, including the bolstering of the Multi-Agency Task Force with the participation of the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission and the National Financial Crime Centre to combat the black economy.

The government would also be looking at limiting transshipments of cigarettes to dedicated ports, as well as imposing a tax on the import of cigarettes with drawback facilities for reexport.

The transhipment of cigarettes and the reexport of cigarettes by small boats would also be disallowed, according to Finance Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz when reading out the budget speech, with such products only allowed to be transported in internationally recognised intermodal containers.

In addition, he said the government would be tightening the renewal for cigarette import licences through a review of licence conditions, including the imposition of import quota.

Malaysia's illegal cigarette trade reached a new all-time monthly high of 64.5% in August from 62% a month prior, according to the latest Illicit Cigarettes Study (ICS) by the Confederation of Malaysian Tobacco Manufacturers (CMTM).

Tan Choe Choe

Posted by JohnFarmer458 > 2020-12-04 10:23 | Report Abuse

Very limited downside, potential upside to rm20

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-12-04 10:29 | Report Abuse

profit taking like that only lah??

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-12-04 10:30 | Report Abuse

no c red meh?

Posted by 360Capitalist > 2020-12-04 11:01 | Report Abuse

BAT is not pure tabacco company : It is into CoviD Vaccine development and E-Cigarette.
We should see more news coming on Vaccine Progress soon
The Vaccine Play is Too Huge, Massive and Impactful on share price when the final details approved by FDA.

https://meaww.com/coronavirus-cigarette-makers-using-tobacco-plants-to-develop-vaccine-covid-19

BAT and Philip Morris claim they're developing 'faster and safer' coronavirus vaccine using tobacco plants

Posted by 360Capitalist > 2020-12-04 11:11 | Report Abuse

https://journalnow.com/business/bat-awaits-fda-approval-to-begin-covid-19-vaccine-trial-by-reynolds-subsidiary/article_1bbd222e-b7cf-5d2b-a120-88c6abdede93.html

BAT said on May 15 that “the potential vaccine has been shown to produce a positive immune response.”

“As such, the vaccine candidate is now poised to progress to the next stage, which will be Phase 1 human clinical trials pending FDA authorization.”

Phase I trials are designed to determine the best dosage of a drug. If a drug is found to be safe enough for patients, it can be tested in a phase II clinical trial.

“We have submitted our pre-investigative new drug package to the FDA, (which) has acknowledged its submission whilst our correspondence with other government agencies around the world continues,” BAT said May 15. “We are hopeful to receive further feedback in the coming weeks.”

The FDA has said that “generally (it) cannot confirm or deny the existence of or comment on any pending investigational new drug applications.”

“Vaccine development is challenging and complex work, but we believe we have made a significant breakthrough with our tobacco plant technology platform and stand ready to work with governments and all stakeholders to help win the war against COVID-19,” said Dr. David O’Reilly, BAT’s director of scientific research.

Hugh Haydon, Kentucky BioProcessing’s chief executive, told Politico in February that “people can be cynical. But the fact is that we might be able to help.”

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-12-04 11:11 | Report Abuse

That’s old news. They’re in phase 1 & 2 on human’s trial...

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-12-04 11:12 | Report Abuse

But a little bit slow compared to the genetic drugs companies

Posted by 360Capitalist > 2020-12-04 11:12 | Report Abuse

https://trialsitenews.com/british-american-tobacco-giant-enters-covid-19-vaccine-race-with-tobacco-plant-platform/

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-12-04 11:18 | Report Abuse

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04473690

Posted by Simon_khoo > 2020-12-04 11:19 | Report Abuse

KBP-201 is BAT’s vaccine code

Posted by Fundamental123 > 2020-12-04 12:00 | Report Abuse

Look like Fund are moving up following good counters moving up like Heng Yuan

Posted by wkc5657 > 2020-12-04 12:01 | Report Abuse

to be objective, unlikely that their vaccine revenue will flow into BAT malaysia's books...

ours purely tobacco and vape revenue....

unless someday malaysia entity selected by their HQ to sell their (if approved) vaccine for this region.

Posted by somo1 > 2020-12-04 12:05 | Report Abuse

Yeap. Totally irrelevant.

Posted by slts > 2020-12-04 12:06 | Report Abuse

BAT vaccines no need injected one, deliver by smoking . no joke

Posted by kokchengkai > 2020-12-04 12:09 | Report Abuse

Old news dun published la hello...
Retailer is no power to push Bat price up alot....

Posted by Gusen > 2020-12-04 12:23 | Report Abuse

privatize?

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-12-04 12:26 | Report Abuse

Very very the strong....

Posted by silverwave > 2020-12-04 12:31 | Report Abuse

not bad, it is still pushing through although it is oversold

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-12-04 12:41 | Report Abuse

shoot past rm13... cimb upgrade to 17.48

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2020-12-04 12:42 | Report Abuse

Wow!, its price resistance at RM13.20 was just breached w/o any trouble so hopefully, the bulls can still keep charging ahead.

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-12-04 12:45 | Report Abuse

Mayb...maybe later kyy will post to promote BAT...certainly better than AT lah...lol