dragonking, now you mentioned glomac is the taiko now i know why it doesn't really jalan.
tell me when do you see the taiko jalan in front when there's a war or something?
they shout and the soldiers or its '"kelefe" all charge first. If all die he runs, if the fight looks good then he charge to its max. so we must wait longer then. haha!
Rating Fair Value Last Price RM1.10 Kenanga Trading Buy RM1.27 Consensus NEUTRAL RM1.22
INVESTMENT MERIT · 9M14 results below expectations. 9M14 results made up 57% of consensus estimates, as core earnings were RM71m (after stripping off RM15m one-off gain on disposal of its Australian investments), due to higher costs from construction and land conversion premium in Saujana Rawang. The group has also lowered its FY14E sales target to RM0.5b from RM0.7b as they hold back launches (e.g. Lakeside Resideces) due to challenging market conditions. As at 9M14, Glomac has unbilled sales of RM792m, which provides slightly more than 1 year earnings visibility. Management is targeting at least RM800m launches in FY15 with main contributors being Glomac Damansara Retail Mall, Saujana Rawang, Centro V and also Lakeside Residence. Assuming a 70% take-up rate, FY15 sales could be around RM0.5-0.6b. We have reduced our FY14E earnings assumption by 12.8% to RM111m since our last On Our Radar note issued on 11th June 2013. · Affordable township landbanking in Johor. On 21st March 2014, Glomac entered into a SPA with Precious Quest Sdn Bhd to acquire the latter for RM22.7m (RM3psf) which has the rights to develop 174.2ac of leasehold land in Kulaijaya, Johor. The project GDV is RM700m and is slated to be a mixed development focusing on the more resilient landed affordable housing market. Significant earnings contribution is likely post FY16. Glomac’s remaining GDV of RM6.8b comprises of 97% Klang Valley, and 3% Johor. The Johor based project is Sri Saujana in Kota Tinggi, which started back in 1995. · Sizeable affordable housing content to bolster demand going forward. In light of recent government policies aimed at combating speculation in the property market, we believe the affordable housing segment will prove resilient as it targets more genuine house buyers. Glomac’s affordable housing projects is est. at 60%- 70% of total GDV. The group will be launching properties with price range of RM400-600k for 2-storey link houses, and RM800k+ for Semi-D’s in Saujana Rawang. Furthermore, we anticipate demand surge in 2HCY14 pre-GST implementation (April 2015), especially for affordable landed properties. · Stable dividends. Management recently proposed a single tier interim dividend of 2.25 sen during the 3Q14 results. Despite not having a formal dividend policy, the group is targeting 4.9 sen NDPS in FY14F, which suggest 4.4% dividend yield at current levels. · TP has been lowered to RM1.27 based on wider 50% discount on our updated FD RNAV of RM2.54. Back when we issued our On The Radar note back on 11th June 2013, our TP was RM1.45 based on 30% discount to its FD RNAV of RM2.08. The higher RNAV is due to updating of new landbanks and balance sheet figures. However, we opted to widen their RNAV discount factor to 50% to reflect the more challenging environment. The discount is wider than our average discount of 40% for developers under our coverage due to its market capitalisation size. Additionally, our TP implies 6.6x FY15E PER which is within its peer’s range of 6.7x but below their historical average of 7.5x. Even with our conservative TP, it provides a decent total return of 19.9%. Trading BUY.
Comment: Last week, GLOMAC confirmed a breakout from the “Symmetrical Triangle” resistance level at RM1.08. This was seen as a major bullish move, hinting that the share is poised to enter into another round of bull run. Despite the temporary consolidation, we reckon that the long-term technical outlook of GLOMAC is bullish. With the share price now hovering just above the “resistance-turned-support” level, traders should take any share price weakness as an opportunity to buy on dips. From here, we expect the share price to eventually rally towards RM1.50 in one year time. Meanwhile, downside should be limited by placing a stop-loss level at RM1.05.
About the stock: Name : Glomac Bhd Bursa Code : GLOMAC CAT Code : 5020 Key Support & Resistance level Resistance : RM1.18 (R1) RM1.24 (R2) RM1.32 (R3) Support : RM1.08 (S1) RM1.00 (S2) RM0.93 (S3) Outlook : Bullish
BUSINESS OVERVIEW Glomac Berhad is a property development company which was established back in 1988 and listed in 2000. The groups core business remains property development with greater focus on prime land in the Klang Valley and greater Kuala Lumpur region. The group has completed more than RM4b in total sales value for townships, residential, commercial, and mixed development properties and has a total GDV of RM10.8b. BUSINESS SEGMENTS Glomac’s current projects are mainly located in the the Klang Valley, one township in Johor and townships in Cyberjaya. The groups core business breakdown by EBIT is; (i) Property Development (98%), and Construction (2%).
Hmmm...No so agree, their plan suddenly can change one, last year also announced 1billion but lastly reduce to 700million and price sudden drop, shareholder get trap and loss... Futhermore bnm going to increase interest rate on end of june meeting, which may have impact on property segment...
VALUE INVESTOR: U tik BNM will going to increase interest rate? bt i dnt tik so. If tis year interest rate increase, next year GST. So wat will the rakyat respon to tis changing? hehe... My opinion is tis year interest rate remain unchange. Nid wait to next year lor. Properties sales in Glomac tis round should be good. Coz due to GST, no ppl wan to pay more buy properties whn GST started. U try imagine, 1 unit cost 600 k, been charge 6 % = 36 k. Wat u feel...
GST will increase the housing price. 1 unit 600k, u buy after GST is around 636 k. U nid pay another extra 36 k. So for those afford to buy properties, they will buy now bt not after. Whn implementation of GST, the properties counter will face negatic impact, tat is increase of input cost due to GST, less buying power. So nid time to solute tis impact. Property syer still can invest now but not after GST. Tis is my view. Any comment, welcome share to me.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
johnwooo23
68 posts
Posted by johnwooo23 > 2014-04-12 19:34 | Report Abuse
Of course you are right patience wil pay one day.tambun I bought 0.75 until 1.91 I sold all.but I still stuck in instaco. Saddddd