SHOW ME YOUR POWER--first firing of the powerplant, end of march, mudajaya will shoot up... second firing at the end of 2nd quarter, price will shoot up again,, then 3rd and 4th... if everything moves like what is said, my god this counter is going to shoot up vertically..., not a slope anymore
CIMB reported : http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/valueinvestorresearchklse/47644.jsp Mudajaya Group Bhd, which has carved a niche for itself as builder of power plants in the country, is touted to be the prime beneficiary from the award of the 2,000 MW power plant to the joint venture of 1Malaysia Development Bhd-Mitsui Co Ltd. According to industry officials when the joint venture was preparing its technical and financial proposal for the tender, much of the input came from Mudajaya that has undertaken the civil works for most of the power plants in the country.
"Mudajaya is the civil contractor for the two ongoing coal-fired power plant projects. It was the company that the 1MDB-Mitsui joint venture were working with," said an industry official. Mudajaya officials were tight-lipped when asked about the prospects of the group benefiting from the power plant job that is estimated to be RM11bn. Mudajaya COO James Wong, however, said that they were looking forward to be involved in the civil work construction job for the much-touted 2,000 MW coal-fired power plant project.
i think the news did mention that mudajay has been acting as a consultant for 1MDB in certain aspect. I believed high potential mudajaya will get piece of the pie. Only matter of size.
Suprising all this good news fail to lift the stock. In fact, seem like there is alot of selling with the good news
rerating will only take place when they start firing their 4 powerplants in india.. market is waiting for this..for the 1MDB- project, sure mudajaya will get it because of their past good record, further more if not mistaken they are the only one that are specialist in this field.. not small piece, i think a bigger one they will get from 1MDB
If India power plant can delay for one year, then don't you think there's a possibility for India power plant to delay two years, or maybe even three years? Maybe they need another 2 years to complete the India project instead of another 1 year.
Of course there's lots of selling pressure even though there's the 1MDB news. Because the order book is depleting with no new projects to replace the completed projects. So, earnings will be low for the next few quarter results.
Don't worry la ! Today no power up because of pass tense managing director ng yi long dispose a bit share ma . He is hantu . Sell already after few days then buy back .. Remember lembaga bought this shares price until 2.78 .. Normally will up more la .. Steady a bit .. Power plant have to run already . Coz the whole building also set up already . If not build for what handsome n pretties . Buy Jor close eyes la .. Don't see the stock up down everyday . Waste time only
YES for this stock do not look everyday, just buy n hold it... get a good entry point using TA or bollinger.. doing business in india is very very very hard, a lot of red indians there
CIMB in it report "Road projects worth about RM40bn expected over the next three to four years" A 465.3km road linking Kota Baru to Simpang Pelangi in Bentong, Pahang, worth RM8bn, is also in the works. It has been reported that a joint venture between MMC Corporation Bhd and Mudajaya Group Bhd is the front-runner for the job. So, hope Mudajaya will "Jaya"!
CIMB projected an average growth of 18% over next 3 years. The intrinsic value is about RM7.70 (using the growth of 9%, or half of what CIMB said), say if we follow margin of safety, we should buy below RM7.70 x 35% = RM2.70 per share (which trading at around RM2.70). Perhaps that is why Mr Koon invested so much in this stocks, and of course, he knows the management well. So, upside is a about 2.5 times. If it doesn't move, keep it. Just like Coastal, it stays undervalued for a few years around RM2.00, today it is around RM4.80. Just waiting for for the catalyst and the actual result to convince the sceptics. CIMB used 40% x RNAV = RM3.30 as its target price. Not sure if CIMB is looking at one year horizon.
CAGR of EPS by CIMB for next 3 years is 18% p.a., I have used 9% CAGR to calculate the LT intrinsic value. Note, you only buy when it is traded not more than 35% of the intrinsic value (by Benjamin). Time will tell.
Kidex highway end of year. India power plant end of year. IMDB power plant?.....seem like all waiting end of year. Will this year end bull for mudajaya?
This is a good purchase opportunity for medium term investors (1-2 yrs). At 2.70, the margin of safety is great. Although the intrinsic value is RM7.70 (using half the growth rate), as I mentioned earlier, there is a lot of limitation to this formula, hence, must always give discount to it. Even, say half of the IV price comes through, it is about RM3.85, giving us an upside of about 42%. Not too bad for one to two years of investment. Risk of going wrong is limited.
using the buffet calculator also show the intrinsic value is 4.40.....not sure did i do it right but hope if will shoot up high. If 50% in 2 yrs...that will be awesome.
1. adequate size of co (market cap and liquidity) 2. strong financials - low gearing 3. No losses for last 10 years 4. 10 years growth of at least 3% p.a. 5. Price of stock <1.5 of book value 6. Price must be less than 15x PE for last three years 7. Consistent dividend for last 20 years
If you use this in Bursa's stocks, I don't think you can find many. So, please, the formula is just a reference. Example, if an analyst assume growth of 10% growth of EPS for next 2 years, the growth rate we used for calculation should not be more than 3%.
mudajaya do have gearing even before the sukuk programme for raising fund this year. It's financial position show goods as the indian venture and some property investment are below 50% stake. Accounting standards allowed not to consolidate the assets and liabilities into the company financial position. So a lot of off balance sheet items we might not be able to see.
Thanks titus. Would be helpful. However, it would be great if we know the Technical Analysis as well. That way, we do not need to wait for years (sometimes).
this stock nice to swing trade.. LOL.. made few rounds profit buying and selling and buying back.. buy 2.75, sold 2.97, buy again 2.75 sold 2.87, buy again 2.71
For the past few weeks now, can clearly see somebody trying to distribute the Mudajaya shares. The seller tries hard not to push down the price too much. The seller would replenish the sell queue whenever the sell queue thins. And then at the end of the day, the seller would try to push the price up back to its previous closing price. In the hope that the following day the seller can continue to distribute around this closing price.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
valuelurker
1,133 posts
Posted by valuelurker > 2014-03-01 10:51 | Report Abuse
the gravy train will leave soon....