At 60sen, Evergreen is valued at 500mil. Assuming fair PE of 10x, that means current price is fair if earnings sustained at 50mil or RM12.5m a quarter. In the 3Q evergreen reported 15mil. That's with one of it's MDF line out of action. That line probably still down in 4Q and with USD being even lower than 3Q and weather being worse as well, 4Q should be worse than 3Q. critical factor how much worse off. If can maintain above 10mil then it will mean Evergreen's result is resilient. When the mdf line comes back on line then result should be back to 3Q level. Don't think the high log price is sustainable in the long run as eventually, some users of log will go out of business and demand for log together with its price will drop.
Every business has a cycle. As long as Evergreen can pull through, it will reap the benefits during the up cycle. Those who thinks there are better opportunities or that the bottom is yet to come, just say your piece and then go to your better opportunities. Don't clutter up this forum with repetitive posts.
Ringgit will be peak at 1USD to RM3.85-3.95, may drop back to RM4.05-4.15 in near future . It seems like the market reaction is too big for export oriented counters ...
i had a high tea session with the HR manager in batu pahat plant yesterday. Apparently, they had recruited additional 80 workers for their new expansion. The bonus paid out was additional half month more than previous year.
it seemed to me that the company are making good money.
BankNegara increased interest rate 25 basis pts. This will be very nasty for evergreen is it? The co. has Rm211,786,000 of total borrowings but compare it earns so little each quarter. Not sure how bad it will impact the group.
The cost hike had passed down to customer since October. The impact of currency loss due to strong RM has been nutralize by the higher capacity utilization.
a) The regional industry is controlled by 5 players. and have huge barrierr entry due to high capital start up.
b) The company have competive edge with its multiple manufacturing location in malaysia, indonesia and Thailand. The advantagee in geography footprint made the company a world class in Asia pacific region.
So benjamin999 said he had a "high tea session with the HR manager in batu pahat plant yesterday." He talked wonderfully about evergreen. Then I saw an investor shares something today the reads like the following:
"Professional stock market analysts always write articles to favour the companies they visited. Remember all CEO and CFO will always say good things about the companies they manage. You must always read analysts’ recommendations with a pinch of salt."
To crash8593970308, your own comment a month ago: "conman counter burnt hand last time , unless you have the time to sit and watch the movement of price everyday stay clear there are more than 800 counter why bother with this"
So why ARE you bothering with Evergreen?
Seems like quite a number of commentators here are not taking their own advice but expect others to follow them when they say Evergreen is conman counter la, going to be red so stay far far away la bla bla bla when they themselves keep coming back here and spend time and effort to write multiple comments.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Yong Ji Yong Ji
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Posted by Yong Ji Yong Ji > 2018-01-19 19:21 | Report Abuse
Heart Attack