I would say a pretty good 4Q result. Sure it is lower than last year's 4Q by about RM3mil but 4Q2016 benefited from forex gain of RM7mil whereas there is no such paper gain in 4Q2017. Interest expenses is also lower by half. This qtr saw RM strengthening against USD plus many comments about MDF and Particleboard prices falling off the cliff. But if after falling off the cliff Evergreen only suffered some scratches, this means Evergreen's earnings are resilient. They managed to find a way to sustain their profit in such tough times and at such short notice (remember the RM suddenly appreciated so much in so little time).
This result really give me confidence of Evergreen's resilience and show their management can respond to changing environment quickly. This is unlike say Heveaboard who kept bemoaning shortage of workers even though it has been more than 6 months that it happened.
Evergreen's earning in this quarter is relatively okay if compared against other furniture and export-oriented companies. It is definitely not considered as good since high log price issue still persist and Thailand plant again has one production line stoppage issue. The management claimed that in Jan'18, the weather and log supply are okay. If such situation can continue in Feb & Mar'18, the coming quarter's earning will see improvement.
Malatlou..... which one time gain of RM8mil are you talking about? Is that the insurance compensation for their fire? If you take out compensation, you need to take out their losses due to a whole production line sitting there not producing but Evergreen still need to incur the fixed cost for the entire 3Q and 4Q. That big a line, I think just depreciation alone is probably like a RM1mil a month. If add in salary, add in general maintenance costs etc, how much fixed cost incurred every month? If talk about one time issues, then need to take out the deferred tax asset write off of RM7mil in 4Q alone. This is Evergreen mgmt being prudent in recognizing all potential losses first. So you can imagine if there was no fire and no deferred tax impact, Evergreen could easily announce a PAT of RM20mil this quarter! And this Q is where all the negative stuff like USD depreciate, particleboard price war, high log and glue costs all come in.
This shows how resilient Evergreen's earnings are and how their management is able to plan ahead and smooth out their earnings to avoid shocks to the investors.
If you compare with Hevea, sure they announced RM15mil PAT but RM5mil is from deferred tax ADDED IN! This is directly opposite from what Evergreen did by being conservative. If particleboard price war continues, Hevea may not be able to show high enough profit in 2018 and they might then need to write off their deferred tax assets in 2018. They also have additional OTHER INCOME of RM3mil which was not properly explained in the notes. What are these? one off items? More accounting magic like the deferred tax asset creation? Hevea explained away their bad result by focusing on the labor issue on the furniture segment. Ignoring the fact that Hevea's mgmt was not able to resolve the labor issues even after six months, Hevea's 3Q PARTICLEBOARD segment did not do well. Reason given was annual maintenance. In the past, their maintenance never had such a huge impact on their result where particleboard segment PBT dropped from RM11mil in 2Q to RM5mil in 3Q, a drop of more than 50%! In 4Q, we see the PBT is reported at RM8mil but if we take out the mysterious RM3mil in OTHER INCOME, we are left with RM5mil PBT, exactly similar PBT to 3Q. Cannot be due to 'annual maintenance' again right? I think their mgmt has been less than truthful on this because the market is rife with news of particleboard price wars but Hevea has told analysts that they are not affected since they do premium products. From the result, it is clear they are hit as well. I dont blame them for market vulgarities but they should have been honest to admit and come up with ways to smooth out their results like what Evergreen's mgmt did.
hi Mooxi, mauxi whichever duplicated ID it is... i thought you said you were ex-staff of Evergreen and you knew that Q4 2017 is in loss??? haha.. again, u r proven to be a joker and big big liar....
Q4 2017 results were pretty much within expectation and if not due to one stoppage line in the Thailand plant, it could have been better. Malaysia segment has actually improved, thanks for the new particleboard lines and improved margin from higher premium products...
when the upgradation work is done for that Thailand MDF line, we can expect the results to improve significantly...
after seeing Q4 results, it gives me more confidence to keep topping up...
as i have been saying.. Evergreen's current price has taken in all the previous + current negatives and it is fully reflected in its current price.. in fact, it is already undervalued...
U can also expect their cash flow to improve going forward, as they now only have very low capex/capital commitment of RM9.596 million (stated in Q4 2017 report) as compared to what they spent in the past 2 years (over hundreds of millions)...
the management said that most of the upgradation work has been completed in second half of 2017 (most capex done) and they are going to see improvement in efficiency and quality. This means that u will see better profit margin ahead...
and when they dont need much capex in future, they can use more cash from the operations to pay down loans... then they save loan interest charges too... cash flow will be better for them...
hi moneykj joker... is 13+million net profit not good? r u expecting 130million? let me know what is considered a good result? pls la.. stop being joker here and hater here... as i said, all negatives have been priced in, in fact, overly done... i expect results and share price to improve going forward... but you have to be a bit patient... it may take until end of 2018 or even 2019 to see good return on the share price .... can u wait for 1-2 years? if yes, buy now.. if not, go speculate on other shares...
@mooxi.... oledi is ur tp price mar.... how come u still said next flight to holland.... actually ur actual tp price is how much de... i want follow ur tp price to top up ler.... hehe... top up little bit...
For supporters, can see facts & figures being used to justify the position. For haters, cant see much aside from childish words and crude insults.
Value depends on price. Is Evergreen worth RM1? At current market environment, probably not. Is it only worth RM0.5 making market cap of RM450mil? With earnings of RM60mil forecasted for 2018, ABSOLUTELY.
So pls dont bring up history of RM1. If you invested in RM1 and didnt sell off when market condition changed, that's your problem, not Evergreen's management's problem. Their management's job is to make the best of the situation so that the company survives until the cycle turns again and reap the benefit.
Again, that's why I say cut lost. And most funny supporter says average down. If I were to average down since RM1 I might as well as die. Cutlost. Buy back in another 2 year time when it reach 4
hevea is better buy than evergreen. hevea=Starbucks evergreen=san Francisco. though Francisco is taste better than Starbucks but still Starbucks will have more business.
Below 60 cents is under value for Evergreen n HOng Leong Investment Bank is quite ridiculous to adjust target price down 33 cents in 2-3 months time...
Really amazed with this Mauxi. So thick skinned! Still dare to come here and claim insider information even though been proving wrong many times in the past.
Which major shareholders scold management? The major shareholders are the founding family members who are also holding the top mgmt positions. You mean they scold themselves ah? The fact that you have multiple personalities shown by your multiple avatars doesn't mean everyone else have split personalities as well.
Also the first time I hear that a profitable company is going bankrupt. I guess in mauxi's world nonsense is the norm.
@jupiter bro..... just forgive him lar.... dun scold him lar..... maybe he sai lang on this counter in early jor.... lost too much... now hate nevergreen lor.... hehe
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Jupiter
73 posts
Posted by Jupiter > 2018-02-27 19:32 | Report Abuse
I would say a pretty good 4Q result. Sure it is lower than last year's 4Q by about RM3mil but 4Q2016 benefited from forex gain of RM7mil whereas there is no such paper gain in 4Q2017. Interest expenses is also lower by half. This qtr saw RM strengthening against USD plus many comments about MDF and Particleboard prices falling off the cliff. But if after falling off the cliff Evergreen only suffered some scratches, this means Evergreen's earnings are resilient. They managed to find a way to sustain their profit in such tough times and at such short notice (remember the RM suddenly appreciated so much in so little time).
This result really give me confidence of Evergreen's resilience and show their management can respond to changing environment quickly. This is unlike say Heveaboard who kept bemoaning shortage of workers even though it has been more than 6 months that it happened.