GUAN CHONG BHD

KLSE (MYR): GCB (5102)

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Last Price

2.80

Today's Change

-0.07 (2.44%)

Day's Change

2.80 - 2.88

Trading Volume

475,700


13 people like this.

4,266 comment(s). Last comment by ScotFree 2 weeks ago

gemfinder

6,880 posts

Posted by gemfinder > 2019-12-21 09:47 | Report Abuse

Huge transaction done at 296 297.... good suport at 288 290

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-21 14:39 | Report Abuse

Q at 2.85 past two days cant get any

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-21 17:56 | Report Abuse

888next ....
I beg to differ. As i k ew a few funds were actually buying up warrant which are undervalued. At the moment GCB warrants are still attractive, as after conversion by paying 1.65 it is still a very small premium over the mother share. If one is of the view that the mother share will touch 3.50-4.00, one will buy at this level and then convert to mother price and still in the money when it touch 4.

Well, there may be a few weak free warrant holder Who may sell but for me i would convert my free warrants to mother share and wait for it to go 5 in two years time. I m sure there are also some might think like me, i think

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-21 17:57 | Report Abuse

As compare to the recent serba warrant. Its so much out of the money and yet still so many chasing it. Reason being its a penny warrant that enable easier entry compare to gcb warrant which is over 1.40

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-21 22:54 | Report Abuse

888next.... if u are aware, warrant price will go towards zero as it reaches its expiry day....theoretically.....

Yes, if it goes 2.40 within a year i will sell and take profit....if it doesnt i will still convert and ride on the mother share....at times, mother share may move but warrant goes the other way....

Therefore, if i have free warrant i would hold, that hive me options to either take profit or convert....of i think it will reach 4. If iwarrant goes 2.40, well great. I will take profit of i choose to. If it doesnt go hand in hand with mother share, well i will convert.

Same as if i buy now, will do the same. Its a personal choice, the comfort level is always on mother share.

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-21 22:56 | Report Abuse

And if mother 4, u presume warrant will be 2.40z that is purely on text book or theoritically. Whatbif doesnt? And there were cases they didnt go hand in hand. Therefore the 1.65 conversion os attrractiive

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-21 22:57 | Report Abuse

And of course if within 6 mths, mother goes 4 and warrant goes 2.40, i will gladly dispose all mother and warrant in hands.....this will be my and many’s perfect goal!!!!

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-21 23:00 | Report Abuse

Market is so unpredictable, therefore, aNy prediction and well thought plan can just go bust!!!! The impeachement of trump and the ramification to the market could prove fatal. So, nothing is cock sure and safe

gemfinder

6,880 posts

Posted by gemfinder > 2019-12-22 09:14 | Report Abuse

Next week can surpass rm3

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-22 12:02 | Report Abuse

Thats why i said theoritically.....

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-22 12:04 | Report Abuse

I m nor optimist nor pessimist, i m just opportunist!!!

bizzybone

286 posts

Posted by bizzybone > 2019-12-23 09:25 | Report Abuse

GCB will be huge. 4th largest cocoa processor globally. This is a BIG deal.

GCB-WB is a steal at current prices. How can a stable company with much expected growth have warrants that trade at such a low premium? And these are new warrants with a long window to expiry.

Once WB breaks 1.48, everyone will chase.

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-23 09:44 | Report Abuse

Bizzybone.... well said

longranger

220 posts

Posted by longranger > 2019-12-23 09:44 | Report Abuse

its is too obvious, wa is better choice.

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-23 09:44 | Report Abuse

Guys and gays.....ho ho ho. GCB IS COMING TO TOWN....for today

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-23 09:45 | Report Abuse

Hope it holds

lching

1,402 posts

Posted by lching > 2019-12-23 09:55 | Report Abuse

judging from the mother share price, WB is still very cheap.

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-23 09:56 | Report Abuse

Some warrants are trading at 30% premium with mother shares making losses q on q

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-23 10:01 | Report Abuse

Iching....... shhhh....hhhhh... not many realise that....pls keep it low.... still wana collect:)

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-23 10:04 | Report Abuse

Rhb latest valuation mother at 3.49. Thus theoritically warrant shall be 1.84 without premium

bizzybone

286 posts

Posted by bizzybone > 2019-12-23 10:10 | Report Abuse

The logic is very simple too. If you expect the mother to increase, son will too. Even if there is no premium for WB, the % gain is much higher.

If GCB goes up 50c from 3.05 to 3.55 = 16.4% gain
If GCB-WB goes up 50c from 1.48 to 1.98 = 33.8% gain

I doubt many buy the mum just for its div yield of 1.3%. Which means the market is buying into the expected growth potential. The div yield is a bonus. Extra bonus if mgmt decides to increase div payout. Even then, the % gain is still much better from WB.

Disclaimer: This is a short term view, say maybe over 2-6 months. If you're taking a much longer term view then of course the mum is the best to buy into.

Max2838

502 posts

Posted by Max2838 > 2019-12-23 13:39 | Report Abuse

Most Malaysian & Indon planters that has expanded bizness to Africa lose money because of Mgt difficulties e.g Sime, KLK, Wilmar, Wah Seong,etc.,especially in palm oil.

I doubt every much the expansion of grinding factory in Cote d'Ivoire and industrial choc factory in Germany will be profitable ventures in the future. Cocoa solids, cocoa butter and cocoa liquor are "commodities" and therefore such factories work best in Johor & Indonesia because of available & productive labour & machinery. There are too many cocoa & choc factories in Europe and also you need not grind in Africa as Mgt will be a major issue, just buy & send the beans to SE Asia.

Your next big choc market is in China & East Asia. Also countries like Japan's Royce can make better chocs than Germany or Spain.

slts

2,236 posts

Posted by slts > 2019-12-23 13:50 | Report Abuse

Max2838. ie is y u r a punter
n gcb owners r billionaires

lee9fold

4,730 posts

Posted by lee9fold > 2019-12-23 14:22 | Report Abuse

looks like alot of short term players taking profit

kllady_fidah

1,700 posts

Posted by kllady_fidah > 2019-12-23 14:28 | Report Abuse

portion sold

gemfinder

6,880 posts

Posted by gemfinder > 2019-12-23 15:48 | Report Abuse

Must hold above rm3

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-23 17:02 | Report Abuse

Slts.....well said:)

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-23 17:03 | Report Abuse

Lee9fold....its good that let ppl take profit. Then only we will have volumes and activities.. when w resukts in abt a mth time, these ppl will reenter

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-23 17:04 | Report Abuse

Kilady...:2nd or 3rd Berkins beg in the pipeline?:)

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-23 17:06 | Report Abuse

Slts....in every situation, there are always skeptics and optimist...its normal...but i think GCB has proven many wrong in the past 18 mths...

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-23 17:10 | Report Abuse

Gemfinder....phew! It closed barely above 3. The show will continue

enning22

2,932 posts

Posted by enning22 > 2019-12-23 18:30 | Report Abuse

max 2838 is view is full of bias and flaws. palm oil planting is africa experienced difficulty , does not means buying cocoa to grind ,will be in same dilemma, after all the nature of the business differ greatly, processing cocoa, need not going to buy large acreage of land for palm oil plantations, and hire large number of african native workers, who are difficult to control and manage,.GCB is not newcomer in the cocoa industry, but a experienced player for decades.with good established relation and supply its products to these branded multi national companies. and Max 2838 talks about "Japan's Royce can make better chocs than Germany or Spain", is very bias. Different countries have different taste preference.One man meat is another man's poison. we must not too quick to jump into conclusion.

Kei2

96 posts

Posted by Kei2 > 2019-12-23 18:44 | Report Abuse

Chill guys. Max2838 is just giving opinion. Well, he is just bearish bout gcb. I agree that the next big market is on China or SEA. That’s the reason i m bullish bout gcb.. If demand is really higher than supply, Malaysia factory supply to asia while African plant just concentrate on European markets.

Kei2

96 posts

Posted by Kei2 > 2019-12-23 18:50 | Report Abuse

Expansion and diversification carries risk. I think all investment does. If u bliv In gcb management, and they can keep up to it, future is bright.

enning22

2,932 posts

Posted by enning22 > 2019-12-23 18:50 | Report Abuse

talking about expand comsumers market, max 2838 thinks only about China and some asian countries, but he forgets Eastern european countries who are getting more wellof ,are also expanding consumers market for chocs.

ooihk899

2,057 posts

Posted by ooihk899 > 2019-12-23 23:11 | Report Abuse

The Busy Weekly has wrote 2 very good articles about on GCB this year.
No need to argue or speculate here.

enning22

2,932 posts

Posted by enning22 > 2019-12-23 23:41 | Report Abuse

the fact is ,bull and bear always argue and speculate, with buying and selling ;otherwise there would be no trading,just flat out.

gemfinder

6,880 posts

Posted by gemfinder > 2019-12-24 07:14 | Report Abuse

The huge selling q at each bid are fake.. all vanish after trading at last during closing

gemfinder

6,880 posts

Posted by gemfinder > 2019-12-24 09:26 | Report Abuse

3.20 coming

Teh1986

306 posts

Posted by Teh1986 > 2019-12-24 09:31 | Report Abuse

3.20 half years

bizzybone

286 posts

Posted by bizzybone > 2019-12-24 09:35 | Report Abuse

Max2838 is entitled to his view, and we are entitled to disagree.

Time will tell how the investment in Africa will pan out. I'm sure there will always be some administrative and operational hiccups, especially dealing with new regulations, people and culture.

But the focus should be on the demand/application. And demand remains and is expected to remain robust.

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-24 09:52 | Report Abuse

Yes thats true guys and gals. Eveyone is entitled to their own view. As long as its constructive, all of us are matured enough to accept and comment and respond in a constructive manner. No matter to get work out. If one is still insist on his or her own view, we shall just leave it as it is.
At the end of day, the truth and facts will prevail.

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-24 09:54 | Report Abuse

And no rewards for winning an arguement:). What is important is our own pocket. Right? One can argue until the cows come home, at the end its all about return on our own investment.

I dun blame some skeptics cos the share price had sky rocketed sky high. So its natural some will think it will nose dived soon cos of some ill treated investment from the management

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-24 09:56 | Report Abuse

I got into GCB in 2016, i havent sold any and keep adding before the bonus and free warrants offer. Ao i guess i have nothing much to prove and argue. I m just waiting for the right timing to.....

bizzybone

286 posts

Posted by bizzybone > 2019-12-24 09:59 | Report Abuse

I've been following GCB for close to 10 years now. Through the ups and downs.

But I have been skeptical for the past 2-3 years and I have been proven so wrong.

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-24 09:59 | Report Abuse

Gemfinder....3.20 is just a whisker away

Agjl

5,755 posts

Posted by Agjl > 2019-12-24 10:00 | Report Abuse

Teh1986.....i dun think we need half year to reach 3.20. Hopefully before CNY...

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