888next .... I beg to differ. As i k ew a few funds were actually buying up warrant which are undervalued. At the moment GCB warrants are still attractive, as after conversion by paying 1.65 it is still a very small premium over the mother share. If one is of the view that the mother share will touch 3.50-4.00, one will buy at this level and then convert to mother price and still in the money when it touch 4.
Well, there may be a few weak free warrant holder Who may sell but for me i would convert my free warrants to mother share and wait for it to go 5 in two years time. I m sure there are also some might think like me, i think
As compare to the recent serba warrant. Its so much out of the money and yet still so many chasing it. Reason being its a penny warrant that enable easier entry compare to gcb warrant which is over 1.40
888next.... if u are aware, warrant price will go towards zero as it reaches its expiry day....theoretically.....
Yes, if it goes 2.40 within a year i will sell and take profit....if it doesnt i will still convert and ride on the mother share....at times, mother share may move but warrant goes the other way....
Therefore, if i have free warrant i would hold, that hive me options to either take profit or convert....of i think it will reach 4. If iwarrant goes 2.40, well great. I will take profit of i choose to. If it doesnt go hand in hand with mother share, well i will convert.
Same as if i buy now, will do the same. Its a personal choice, the comfort level is always on mother share.
And if mother 4, u presume warrant will be 2.40z that is purely on text book or theoritically. Whatbif doesnt? And there were cases they didnt go hand in hand. Therefore the 1.65 conversion os attrractiive
And of course if within 6 mths, mother goes 4 and warrant goes 2.40, i will gladly dispose all mother and warrant in hands.....this will be my and many’s perfect goal!!!!
Market is so unpredictable, therefore, aNy prediction and well thought plan can just go bust!!!! The impeachement of trump and the ramification to the market could prove fatal. So, nothing is cock sure and safe
GCB will be huge. 4th largest cocoa processor globally. This is a BIG deal.
GCB-WB is a steal at current prices. How can a stable company with much expected growth have warrants that trade at such a low premium? And these are new warrants with a long window to expiry.
The logic is very simple too. If you expect the mother to increase, son will too. Even if there is no premium for WB, the % gain is much higher.
If GCB goes up 50c from 3.05 to 3.55 = 16.4% gain If GCB-WB goes up 50c from 1.48 to 1.98 = 33.8% gain
I doubt many buy the mum just for its div yield of 1.3%. Which means the market is buying into the expected growth potential. The div yield is a bonus. Extra bonus if mgmt decides to increase div payout. Even then, the % gain is still much better from WB.
Disclaimer: This is a short term view, say maybe over 2-6 months. If you're taking a much longer term view then of course the mum is the best to buy into.
Most Malaysian & Indon planters that has expanded bizness to Africa lose money because of Mgt difficulties e.g Sime, KLK, Wilmar, Wah Seong,etc.,especially in palm oil.
I doubt every much the expansion of grinding factory in Cote d'Ivoire and industrial choc factory in Germany will be profitable ventures in the future. Cocoa solids, cocoa butter and cocoa liquor are "commodities" and therefore such factories work best in Johor & Indonesia because of available & productive labour & machinery. There are too many cocoa & choc factories in Europe and also you need not grind in Africa as Mgt will be a major issue, just buy & send the beans to SE Asia.
Your next big choc market is in China & East Asia. Also countries like Japan's Royce can make better chocs than Germany or Spain.
Lee9fold....its good that let ppl take profit. Then only we will have volumes and activities.. when w resukts in abt a mth time, these ppl will reenter
max 2838 is view is full of bias and flaws. palm oil planting is africa experienced difficulty , does not means buying cocoa to grind ,will be in same dilemma, after all the nature of the business differ greatly, processing cocoa, need not going to buy large acreage of land for palm oil plantations, and hire large number of african native workers, who are difficult to control and manage,.GCB is not newcomer in the cocoa industry, but a experienced player for decades.with good established relation and supply its products to these branded multi national companies. and Max 2838 talks about "Japan's Royce can make better chocs than Germany or Spain", is very bias. Different countries have different taste preference.One man meat is another man's poison. we must not too quick to jump into conclusion.
Chill guys. Max2838 is just giving opinion. Well, he is just bearish bout gcb. I agree that the next big market is on China or SEA. That’s the reason i m bullish bout gcb.. If demand is really higher than supply, Malaysia factory supply to asia while African plant just concentrate on European markets.
talking about expand comsumers market, max 2838 thinks only about China and some asian countries, but he forgets Eastern european countries who are getting more wellof ,are also expanding consumers market for chocs.
Max2838 is entitled to his view, and we are entitled to disagree.
Time will tell how the investment in Africa will pan out. I'm sure there will always be some administrative and operational hiccups, especially dealing with new regulations, people and culture.
But the focus should be on the demand/application. And demand remains and is expected to remain robust.
Yes thats true guys and gals. Eveyone is entitled to their own view. As long as its constructive, all of us are matured enough to accept and comment and respond in a constructive manner. No matter to get work out. If one is still insist on his or her own view, we shall just leave it as it is. At the end of day, the truth and facts will prevail.
And no rewards for winning an arguement:). What is important is our own pocket. Right? One can argue until the cows come home, at the end its all about return on our own investment.
I dun blame some skeptics cos the share price had sky rocketed sky high. So its natural some will think it will nose dived soon cos of some ill treated investment from the management
I got into GCB in 2016, i havent sold any and keep adding before the bonus and free warrants offer. Ao i guess i have nothing much to prove and argue. I m just waiting for the right timing to.....
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
gemfinder
6,880 posts
Posted by gemfinder > 2019-12-21 09:47 | Report Abuse
Huge transaction done at 296 297.... good suport at 288 290