Asian stock markets and U.S. futures tumbled Sunday evening following a sharp drop in crude prices, rattling investors who were already grappling with economic disruptions from the coronavirus outbreak.
Dow futures plunged 1,200 points and Standard & Poor’s 500 futures dropped 4.4%. Stocks in Asia plummeted, with Japan's Nikkei 225 sliding 5.7% while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 shed 5.8%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index lost 4%.
Bond yields, meanwhile, slumped to new unprecedented lows. Global markets have endured multiple roller coaster weeks following uncertainty over how much damage the deadly virus will do to the global economy.
Investors were spooked further Sunday after oil prices briefly dropped 30% following Saudi Arabia's decision to cut its export oil prices over the weekend, a move that has sparked concerns over a global oil price war, analysts say.
Saudi Arabia's move came after OPEC failed to strike a deal with its allies on a cut to oil production. An agreement would have contained the plunge in the price of crude caused by the virus outbreak’s disruption to world business, analysts say.
Guys dji tonight crazy crash - 2000 points, this counter tomorrow open jump 0.050 or lower! Run fast! This price should maintain long term seems virus getting serious and Saudi keeps fighting for market shares!!
MasterYoda Mabel you took mind off the falling stock for a while Meow 09/03/2020 3:21 PM
Sure MasterYoda!
Studies have repeatedly shown that when that occurs, many ordinary investors found the losses too much to bear and sell stocks, often at or around the market lows.
U.S. shale growth is about to decline, becoming an immediate victim of the Saudi-Russian price war.
Saudi Aramco said that it would increase oil production to 12.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April, a shocking escalation of the war for market share. That level of output is believed to be beyond what Aramco can produce on a sustainable basis. In other words, Saudi Arabia is going all-out to flood the market.
Also, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman didn’t sound interested in meeting with Russia anytime soon. “I fail to see the wisdom for holding meetings in May-June that would only demonstrate our failure in attending to what we should have done in a crisis like this and taking the necessary measures,” Prince Abdulaziz told Reuters.
According to Energy Intelligence, Saudi Arabia is conducting budgeting exercises to game out scenarios in which oil crashes to between $12 to $20 per barrel, and will even look at an extreme scenario in which oil falls below $10.
Russia says it can withstand the price war at $25 to $30 per barrel for 6 to 10 years. Neither side appears willing to budge.
“Monday will go down as one of the bleakest market days in the history of the energy sector,” Raymond James wrote in a note. “Was this capitulation day? It certainly feels like it... it is hard to imagine how much worse sentiment can get.” Related: Russia Fires Back: Could Boost Oil Production By 500,000 Bpd
As a result, the immediate victim will be U.S. shale. “[O]il should bottom out when producers begin physically shutting in wells, which is indeed what set the floor four years ago,” the investment bank added.
The reaction was swift. With share prices in freefall, the number of shale companies announcing budget cuts multiplied at the start of the week. Diamondback Energy and Parsley Energy immediately announced plans to cut spending and reduce drilling activity.
Canadian oil company Cenovus Energy slashed 2020 capex by 32 percent and its production guidance by 5 percent. Ovintiv said it would cut spending and tried to reassure skittish investors that it had enough liquidity. Marathon Oil cut spending by $500 million.
Even Chevron admitted that it might need to cut spending, just days after it unveiled lofty goals on free cash flow over the next five years. “We are reviewing alternatives to reduce capital expenditures, that are expected to lower short-term production and preserve long-term value,” Chevron said in a statement to Reuters late on Monday. Chevron was the first oil major to suggest that it might cut spending, and the oil giant said that it needs $55 per barrel in order to cover its spending and shareholder payouts.
At these prices almost no shale well drilled today can make money. Rystad Energy says just a handful of companies have breakevens lower than today’s oil price. Friezo Loughrey of data firm Oil Well Partners LLC told Bloomberg that Permian breakevens are closer to $68 per barrel if investors want an adequate return within 24 months. Today, prices are trading at half of that. Related: Saudi Arabia's Archenemy Is Taking Advantage Of The Oil War
“Many US fracking companies already had their backs to the wall before the price slump due to high debts and financing difficulties,” Commerzbank wrote in a note. “Drilling activity declined continuously until mid-January, and has since stagnated at a low level.”
The one-two combo of the coronavirus pandemic and the Saudi-Russia price war could deliver a knockout blow to U.S. shale.
But perspectives on the impact on production vary. JBC Energy said that they “prefer a more cautious call on US supply declines,” adding that it may take a few months before production begins to fall.
But others see an immediate retreat. “A decline in US shale oil production of 1-2m bl/day from current total US oil production of 13.1m bl/day is natural to expect,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said in a statement. “We now think that a last-minute deal between Russia and OPEC before the expiry of the current cuts at the end of March 2020 is very unlikely. Russia has probably firmly decided that now is the time to pull away the rug from under the feet of the shale oil producers, so now is the time for the second shale oil reset.”
The plunge in crude oil prices is likely to cause the government to lose billions of ringgit in oil revenue that could see the fiscal deficit balloon under current spending plans.
At the price of US$48 per barrel for oil, Malaysia stands to have RM4.5bil shaved off from its oil revenue. And should the prices plummet to the range of US$20 to US$25 per barrel, the additional losses would be to the tune of between RM11.1bil and RM12.6bil.
Brent crude oil was at the range of US$36 per barrel as at press time.
Brent crude was trading down $1.03, or 2.9%, at $$34.76 by around 0130 GMT having switched in and out of positive territory before the U.S. announcement. The contract fell nearly 4% on Thursday.
U.S. crude was down $1.13, or 3.4%, at $31.85 after dropping 4% in the previous session.
the only consolation for malaysian is not 100% ppl will jump rivers, some smart traders still got good profit from selling short. For US 100% sure all shale oil companies will bankrupt n jump down from grand canyon !!
Oil prices dropped as much as 8% on Thursday as crude continues to take a hit on both the supply and demand side. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is now down more than 25% this week, putting it on track for its worst week since December 2008, and its third largest weekly decline on record.
On Thursday WTI fell $2.04, or 6.2%, to trade at $30.95 per barrel. Earlier in the session it traded as low as $30.02.
International benchmark Brent crude fell $2.51, or 7%, to trade at $33.26 per barrel.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Concern
11 posts
Posted by Concern > 2020-03-09 11:52 | Report Abuse
Now mineral water more expensive than oil.