Posted by Knavi > 2013-05-22 16:31 | Report Abuse

tis time i will see wat my TA say 1st b4 go in~~

Posted by balvin71 > 2013-05-22 16:35 | Report Abuse

let me know also....we go in together

Posted by janetrohan > 2013-05-22 17:04 | Report Abuse

me too......

Posted by Greenpower > 2013-05-22 17:09 | Report Abuse

Me too....

Posted by mingtee3 > 2013-05-22 18:30 | Report Abuse

Me too

Posted by Titicamara > 2013-05-22 19:37 | Report Abuse

Big shareholder is selling.

Posted by kcfan > 2013-05-22 19:42 | Report Abuse

Sold half on today trade too.

Posted by alkop > 2013-05-22 19:45 | Report Abuse

then we wait for the new big brother buying...look at dayang n perisai..the history of dayang n perisai is the same..big shareholder selling at low price now u see the price triple when new big brother buying....ha ha ha ...look at brighter future...be optimistic..up n down is natural ...gud luck

Posted by tonylim > 2013-05-22 19:48 | Report Abuse

well said. alkop

Posted by ch741001 > 2013-05-22 20:38 | Report Abuse

Second round will move higher because it had a oil n gas counter

Posted by Edmundleekoklam > 2013-05-22 21:18 | Report Abuse

Its healthy to have corrections. Its a cheap oil & gas related stock compare to others counters. Rally still intact. No worry

Posted by Knavi > 2013-05-23 08:54 | Report Abuse

as i said, GL dispose the shares is converted from iculs, even sold a lot but thy still remain 15.68% interest~~ it is possible that thy will continue dispose untill 15% level~~so, 0.68%=hw many units of share? according bloomberg outstanding share=500m, so 0.68%=3.4m unit= 34000lot~~~

as at 22nd may announcement, GL dispose 1.2m~~so 3.4m take hw many days to dispose?? dono~~

Posted by Knavi > 2013-05-23 08:55 | Report Abuse

dun 4gt thy still hv iculs if nt mistaken~~

Posted by wfa78 > 2013-05-23 09:06 | Report Abuse

Hope this counter will revive soon and hope my decision to go in not a mistake..

Posted by Knavi > 2013-05-23 09:29 | Report Abuse

i hv a quite noob theory, whenever there is a stocks that historical hit 1.00 close price, it will go to 1.20~~lol...u may refer to several counters to check whether this theory is right or not...

Posted by Knavi > 2013-05-23 10:30 | Report Abuse

when price no movement it mean almost near the time...note: almost only but nt nw~~

Posted by janetrohan > 2013-05-23 12:29 | Report Abuse

agreed to Knavi !

Posted by balvin71 > 2013-05-23 15:25 | Report Abuse

Knavi, can go in now ah?

Posted by janetrohan > 2013-05-23 15:28 | Report Abuse

keep calm and focus on rm1.43

Posted by Knavi > 2013-05-23 15:29 | Report Abuse

wait~~my noob TA nd to wait close price and see the chart~~so 2day totally dun act anything~~

Posted by Knavi > 2013-05-23 15:58 | Report Abuse

guys, i share my experience, last year i found prlexus, price 0.715, im scare to buy because it rally from 0.50 to 0.715, but i found it shud be worth at least rm2 and even rm3, but that time merely 0.715, i doubt n feel funny, like i too naive, even nt dare to tel ppl bout my findings, so i din buy it...until it rose to 0.895 i feel regret...when it drop to 0.875 i bought, but then it cool down for vry long period, i doubt once again on myself, shud i stop loss? or to be confident? until last year end, finally, the price break historical rm1, i hold n it hit 1.2x...tat time i still beginner, i felt tats enuf for me, i sold, gain around 40%, and den i wait for my noob TA, buy back at 0.99...suddenly a big kaki go throw until 0.84, tat time im vry worry...it is near the report date why thy throw?? report bad news?? or something happen?? but i insist to gamble and trust my findings...i hold...until report come out, every1 shock, profit bcum double digit for tat quarter, the second day open high with a vry big gap...when goes to 1.40, i sold again...but nw regret bcause it start rally to rm2...so, guys, why we always said if our counter fundamental strong, nvr feel afraid, when it drop u shud happy bcause "discount", gv chances to u to buy more....

Posted by hsong > 2013-05-23 21:29 | Report Abuse

need not worrty for counters backed by fundamentals and pantech is riding on the O&G wave. Good that major shareholders armed with cash from the sale could convert the iculs to provide the company funds for business expansions

Posted by ykinvestor > 2013-05-23 22:51 | Report Abuse

at PE of 12 the TP for pantech is 1.43. I am sure Pantech's coming quarter result will be very good as it's steel section ( 20%) wil lbe contributing nicely and again its O n G section (80 % of the profit) should be excellent too. Recently we have seen that a lot of O n G counters have their PE revised to PE of 15/16. So let's say Pantech's PE is rerated to 16 after is good result, its new TP will be 1.92. So at 0.90 now, it has a 100 % upside in 6 months to 1 year. So it is a very good fundamental share to collect for people with long term view.

Posted by Edmundleekoklam > 2013-05-23 22:59 | Report Abuse

I agreed. I bought 50,000 at 0.95 & today bought another 60,000 at 0.895

Posted by IniKaliLah > 2013-05-23 23:05 | Report Abuse

Next week can buy more lot at 85 cent.......

Posted by Edmundleekoklam > 2013-05-23 23:09 | Report Abuse

i think the prices will hold steady at 88.

Posted by Edmundleekoklam > 2013-05-23 23:11 | Report Abuse

Dow was recovering with only a small drop.

Posted by Knavi > 2013-05-24 20:59 | Report Abuse

next week shud be no surprise... will continue correction?hmm

Posted by ykinvestor > 2013-05-25 15:01 | Report Abuse

Infact the Pantech-WA is more interesting to own and buy. With the conversion price of 0.60 and its expiry date in 2020, it is very actrative compare with the mother share. I encourage those with a longer term view to pay attention to pantech-WA stock. If the mother share hits 1.40, the pantech-WA can hit 0.80. Imagine that when the mother share is rerated to have a PE of 16, its TP will be 1.92 and the pantech-WA can hit (1.92 - 0.60) more than 1.32. Looking at the closing price of 0.41, pantech-WA can give over 300 % return if one can have the patient to wait and hold for a longer term (6 mths to 1 year)

Posted by Knavi > 2013-05-25 15:50 | Report Abuse

yes!! warrant i aim it nw~~miss padini-ca, nw dunwan to miss pantech wa~~

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-05-25 15:55 | Report Abuse

What an attractive proposition for Pantech warrant; 300% return for a holding period of 6-12 months (long term?)! Really?

Of course if Pantech can go up to somebody's TP of RM1.92 by then, that would be absolutely right. Thanks to its gearing of 2.2 times. But can it? Why do you think it can, besides what the investment bank said?

What if Pantech share price further retreat to 60 sen, the price it was some time 8-9 months ago? Not possible? What would be the intrinsic value of the warrant then? Leverage is a double-edged sword.

Actually one must have a feel of the value of an option before he can say if it is cheap in relation to the underlying share. This value mainly depends on the exercise price, time to maturity, the volatility and also the dividend yield of the underlying stock. High dividend, in Pantech's case, is detrimental to the warrant because warrant holders don't enjoy the benefit. At 40.5 sen and Pantech share at 90 sen, the implied volatility is 49%, not exactly cheap for the warrant.

Moreover, Pantech at 90 sen, to me is almost fully valued already even if I consider its growth in earnings is 15% for the next 5 years which is an optimistic projection.

Posted by Knavi > 2013-05-25 16:00 | Report Abuse

hv to wait for "safety" level of price only go in...

Posted by ykinvestor > 2013-05-25 16:56 | Report Abuse

Pantech's estimated FY14 EPS is 12 cent and FY15 ESP is 15, it growth rate has been over 16 % year on year. So based on a rough calculation the projected ESP based on 16 % year on year growth rate would be over 21 cent in 5 year time. Based on the PE of 12, the TP would be 0.21 * 12 = 2.51 and based on the PE of 16, it would be 0.21 * 16 = 3.31.
Don't forget we should expect to see new stainless steel plant (it was in red in the prevuios FY) to contribute possitively to the good result this year.Also its Nautic Steel, has the potential to grow further as Pantech is waiting for the local authorities in UK to approve its application to convert a retail warehouse into a factory.Thus the UK unit would contribute a fair bit of the group’s bottomline this year too. All these factors willcertainly boost up it future EPS and growth rate. The mother share will retreat to 0.60 if KLSE go back to 1000 ~1200 again. I am sure once the selling by the GL group is completed, the mother will move near to 1.20 before eventually hitting 1.40 or more. It is a growth compamy with strong fundamental and paying dividend and some more it is in the O n G sector. its Nautic Steel is a global brand with big clients like Petrobras, Saudi Aramco and Petronas. Furthermore Pantech has set its sights on achieving MYR1.0bn in revenue by 2015.

Posted by ykinvestor > 2013-05-25 17:06 | Report Abuse

In the coming few years, the O n G sector will be in the Bull gear due to Petronas investment. Don't forget, in the 2007 O n G sector bull run, the average PE was 20~23. So the pantech's PE of 12 or 16 is still very conservative. I believe, Pantech PE wil be rerated to 15/16 after thier result in the coming quarter is announced and eventually the its PE will be rerated to 20 when the coming quarters are showing solid results.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-05-25 17:13 | Report Abuse

My questions are:

1) What do you think is the sustainable growth rate for Pantech? One must bear in mind that this rate is somehow related to the earnings retention ratio* ROE. Is your growth projection too optimistic?

2) Why do you think that Pantech's PE ratio can be expended to 12, or even 16 when it is 8.4 now? Bear in mind that the range of Pantech's PE ratio has been in the region of 5-8 for most of the years since it was listed in 2007.

3) How are you so sure that the overseas foray and the increased sales will definitely have future economic value added to the business, bearing in mind that its ROIC of 11% is just a shade above the weighted average cost of capital?

4) Havd you considered the dilution effect of the warrants and loan stocks in EPS?

Posted by ykinvestor > 2013-05-25 17:26 | Report Abuse

Q1 - Pantech management team is a strong team with vision and their execution is good. Look at Nautic Steel is a good example and how they turn around the loss making steel section in a short period. Analyst has been saying that Pantech is looing for new opportunities to repeat the success of Nautic Steel. Thus their growth rate is very much sustainable.

Q2 - Now people have realised that its 80% profit is from the O n G sector and it is not a steel company (that is why its PE only in the 5-8 range). Thefore Pantech should command the PE of 14/15 now and follow the O n G company. (look at Dayang and perdana, it PE has already been rerated to 14 )

Q3-refer to Q1
Q4 - dilution effect of the warrants and loan stocks in EPS has been considered. The WA is not expired until 2012. Do you think everyone will convert all in this one of two years considering they have another 7 years to do so. So the conversion effect is minimum.

Posted by Knavi > 2013-05-25 17:28 | Report Abuse

guys, dun hv to argue, time is the best tool to prove it...

still remember when 7/4/2013, i post tis in my fb group:
PANTECH (5125)

P/E 7.28
EPS 10.4383
DY 5.55%
Market Cap 386M

current price 0.760

so, nw price goes to rm1, hw many % of capital gain? it is normal if the price drop cz some short term player aim 20%+ of return. u can see pantech chart, the price goes up den correction goes down, u can see in the past, its price goes to 0.79 from 0.67, bt den correct back to 0.71...so pantech consider as quite slow move in its price...currently bull market boost the price up too fast, it is in expectation will hv correction...according to fund managers' TA teacher, thy will tel them, the price will correct till near the ma line...so be patient~~

Posted by ykinvestor > 2013-05-25 17:29 | Report Abuse

Sorry The WA is not expired until 2020.

Posted by Knavi > 2013-05-25 17:40 | Report Abuse

PE has a lot of ways to use it, diff ppl diff ways of use... for me, i will scan stocks under pe=10, and then based on tat time's eps, to estimate the price can goes to pe=10. noted: is based on tat time eps.

some ppl use PE, example the stock avrg pe=8, suddenly 1 day market reds or other factors or earnings up make its pe=7, so tat kind of users will go to buy the counter, till pe bek to 8 den thy sell it...

diff ppl will use PE differently..thus, there is no right or wrong, bcz all oso estimation...as long as the way u used makes profit...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-05-25 17:42 | Report Abuse

Responds to your answer:
1)I agree with you Pantect's management is good, no doubt about. But can "looking for opportunity" a definitely a good "growth prospect"? Every company is looking for opportunity. Every company, including the big names overseas are looking to acquire a good company, hopefully with a good price. So will all good opportunities will eventually land on Pantect's lap? By the way, you don't seem to understand what is sustainable growth rate.

2)Pantect should command a PE of 14/15. When? Why not now? There are scores of analysts and institutional investors, and how come they still don't get it. O&G? All O & G will continuously grow and grow without limit?

3) How is that dilution has been considered? How can you say the warrant and loan stocks have no effect on dilution? What when the share price of Pantect goes up, don't you think these warrants and loan stock holders won't convert? Won't it affect the EPS?

Oh yes, I am not arguing with you, I am having a discussion with you.

Posted by ykinvestor > 2013-05-25 17:43 | Report Abuse

I am using the sector average PE so that I can do an apple to apple comparison.

Posted by Knavi > 2013-05-25 18:02 | Report Abuse

according to above rhb research report, thy dy assuming full conversion from iculs and warrants...by using pe=13, it still value at 1.27...

"Pantech undervalued. Based on a conservative scenario analysis based on full conversion of the company’s ICULS and warrants and pegging the stock to a 13x PE vs the O&G industry’s 15x, fair value would be diluted to MYR1.27, which still offers investors a decent 38.8% upside from its last closing price."

ok, maybe there is arguement said that pantech pe avrg always maintain at most 8.xx... i can agree, the pe will maintain 8.xx in future, but as long as the eps increase, the price surely will up. so, it is highly possible that in the future the pe based on 2day eps, it maybe already 10, but if based on latest eps it might be still pe=8.xx (this is the pe way that i used, diff from the report which use pe=13 x fy14f)

diff approach diff result, all can get profit, the only differences is who get higher return...btw, as long as gain, den ur approach is good. isnt it? lol...congrates for those makes profit, and be patient for those still waiting~~

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-05-25 22:35 | Report Abuse

kc, whats your valuation method for Pantech and why do you say it is fully valued at RM0.9

Posted by necro > 2013-05-25 22:46 | Report Abuse

Hurmmm good debate with good fact n logics...

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-05-25 22:53 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by necro > 2013-05-25 22:56 | Report Abuse

Are u swinger or investor?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-05-26 04:42 | Report Abuse

Posted by houseofordos > May 25, 2013 10:35 PM | Report Abuse
kc, whats your valuation method for Pantech and why do you say it is fully valued at RM0.9

Intrinsic value of a stock is always not the same as its value. When you talk about bull market, technical chart etc, you are talking about share price movement, not the intrinsic value of a company. The intrinsic value of a company does not fluctuates like the share price movement. Pantech's share price can move up with a bull market, there is no argument about it. In essence, Pantech is a good company. Likewise the share price can also go down in a bear market.

Below are my data and assumptions for Pantech for my discount cash flows analysis of the firm value:

Assumptions
EBIT, million 91.69
Exp next 5 yr growth 10%
Debt ratio for the firm = 70%
Cost of equity = 12%
Pre-tax cost of debt = 7%
ROIC stable 10%

The growth assumptions of 10% for the next 5 years to me is already liberal as its sustainable growth rate is only 6.2%. Sustainable growth means growth without having to continuously borrow more money or issue right issues. Pantech's debt-to equity ratio of .42 is already not low, and issues of more shares will dilute EPS.

The following is the result of this analysis:

Results, million
Value of Firm = $853.35
Value of Debt = $(355.23)
Value of Equity = $498.11
Excess cash $79.29
ICULs $(39.06)
Warrants $(23.39)
$514.95
Less minority interest $(0.10)
$514.85
Number of shares 511
Value per share $1.01

The value of ICULs and warrants are estimated using option pricing model and deducted from the value due to equity holders. Hence Pantect at 90 sen, it is just about 10% below its intrinsic value. Of course one can argue about the assumptions used, but I think they are already liberal.

Don't get me wrong. Pantect has been in my investment portfolio for a long time. Only recently I have scaled down this holding and I still hold some shares. Of course I would also like its share price to go up too.

Posted by slts > 2013-05-26 07:07 | Report Abuse

guys, my view.

The Oil & Gas industries are booming currently
overseas & locally due to high oil price & demand.
However these are cyclical in nature like semicon.

Pantech lagg others like Dayang, Skp, Alam etc cos
it is does not service the upstream Production Sharing Contractors
(like Shell, Esso, Petronas Carigali, Murphy etc)
directly unlike Dayang, Skp etc
It service the contractors eg Skp that service the PSC
ie why it's not trading at PE 15% like them. But at PE < 10x
there is upside potential as along as the bull mkt hold

Therefore in the near term, Pantech is still a value play
in the current bull mkt.
Regardless what u think of Pantech's valuation,
when the Bear mkt takeover all will kaput, die loh..lol

Posted by ykinvestor > 2013-05-26 08:16 | Report Abuse

Thanks Ooi. It is good that we share and exchange info and arguments here.

Posted by TokanCorner > 2013-05-26 09:08 | Report Abuse

actually argument is good it mean good exchanging ideas and view as long we use it wisely and never use bad word for others opinions :D ~ IMHO keep it up guys