Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-22 16:22 | Report Abuse

But I sympathise with those who had bought this week and didn't get out fast enough. The technical readings were positive and it looked to be on an uptrend. No one can really accuse them of being `impulsive'. The poorer quarter results aren't really a huge surprise. But the sharp fall is. I have the feeling JCY has run its course as one of the top "speculator's counter". When people get burnt too often, they wouldn't return. Time to move on to other counters - the likes of Perisai etc.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-22 16:24 | Report Abuse

Toll from my house, Kota Damansara.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-11-22 16:29 | Report Abuse

hahaha... between the giza, curve and TV3, mana ader toll! hahahaha....

Posted by minitrader > 2012-11-22 16:29 | Report Abuse

Posted by Steve Jub > Nov 22, 2012 04:22 PM | Report Abuse

why everyone want to run naked? :D


..gone crazy bcos of the mkt...many people losing pants lor...hahaha

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-22 16:42 | Report Abuse

I thought it's at Ampang?? Anyway, I wouldn't even know how to get there on my own. Rather new with the Klang Valley - it's my wife who does the driving 90% of the time (I'm limited to "Slow down, please...making me scared.") I know One Utama is somewhere near the house but I don't know which road to take. KL? I've never driven there on my own Haha!

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-22 16:44 | Report Abuse

Oh, ya... now TV3 is under Media Prima. Forgot about that. And to think that I had once worked with NST.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-11-22 16:46 | Report Abuse

oh my goodness, ini katak terengganu di bawah tempurung! and to think your good missus let you go all the way to sunway giza naked on your own! hehehehe

Posted by minitrader > 2012-11-22 16:52 | Report Abuse

wondering why and how OSK got a TP of 0.35. Net asset is worth 0.56sen. Don't tell me JCY is worth half its net asset??? If earnings are postive next yr, net asset value will rise too...so why condemn the company and give an unreasonable low valuation?...stock valuations are not all about PE ratios alone even if PER gonna rise next year on lower earnings...OSK gave a crab valuation..

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-22 16:53 | Report Abuse

It's Kelantan, and I had lived in Pasir Mas for 28 years before moving to Batang Kali in 2010, and then Kepong and finally Kota Damansara when I remarried. It took me a quite some time to even understand where the different places are in relation to one another.

The katak bawah tempurung is correct - to my thinking, town "A" follows B, then C, D, E and so on. So, if you are at B and wants to go to E, you MUST pass by C and D first. But that's not so in the Klang Valley! There are different roads that connects one particular area. WOW! Have to say I'm impressed with the road system here.

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-11-22 16:54 | Report Abuse

katak kelate! hehehehe sorry my mistake!

oh mann, where can i find nice nasi dagang eh in Kota Damansara?

Posted by minitrader > 2012-11-22 16:57 | Report Abuse

Mat Cendan, u staying Kota Damansara leh..we are neighbours lor

Posted by mysterious99 > 2012-11-22 16:58 | Report Abuse

nevermind2 i will pay for your toll expenses...the analysy seems to be too CONFIDENT with his call... hahahaha...

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-22 17:03 | Report Abuse

It's like he has some vested interest and doing his darn best to try discourage people from even thinking about buying. Someone holding JCY-HA on the side and hoping to make a bigger killing? Something like a TP of 0.55 or so could have been a lot more reasonable - if it does get near there, then you come up with a revised TP of 0.35. But stating this figure now... it doesn't sound right. For all its problems, JCY isn't Cybert or Ingens. And it's still in the plus for the current financial year.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-22 17:10 | Report Abuse

Oh, you are here too, minitrader? I'm at Section 4...just a bit after the toll exit, left side.

KC Loh, nasi dagang etc. - it's amazing that you can find any type of food not just in KD but in most places in the Klang Valley. This is one of the things that I like here - the variety and choices. Never thought I'd could ever be comfortable here, but to my pleasant surprise, I am. Much higher cost of living, of course. But a lot more opportunities too.

Posted by minitrader > 2012-11-22 17:16 | Report Abuse

staying in sect 6 ma...

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-11-22 17:44 | Report Abuse

So where's the nasi dagang? Really miss it!

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-22 17:57 | Report Abuse

I think there's nasi dagang by a few traders around the Section 6 apartments - stalls by the roadside. But this particular area is somewhat rather messy and a bit chaotic. My wife's favourite is a Kelantan-owned restaurant in Bandar Pinggiran Subang (also known as "Subang 2"): Mak Uda Selera Timur https://foursquare.com/v/mak-uda-selera-timur/4bea47cb62c0c92839b6e0d4 This place is packed with people during breakfast and lunch

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-11-22 18:00 | Report Abuse

Looking forward to the subang 2 nasi dagang then. Thanks

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-11-22 18:04 | Report Abuse

Bookmarked it already. Now an idea just came to me. Why not extend the naked run dare to subang 2,just til right in front of mak uda? :)

We will try ask OSK take the challenge!

Posted by mictkp > 2012-11-22 18:12 | Report Abuse

making some note here. today transaction. why small kakis panic sell not the big players. Transaction value less than 15k. Sell down more than buy up. shaking to light up the aeroplane?

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-22 18:33 | Report Abuse

@mictkp, As I had commented earlier, I think it's because the contra players panicked and this set about a chain reaction. This is especially so with those who had bought on Monday and Tuesday when they see the price rising and the technical readings being positive.

Some of them might not have enough capital to pick up their purchases after the contra period. They might have been ready for a possible loss of a couple of sen. However, nobody anticipated the swiftness of things and the sharpness of the slide. Inevitably, many panicked and rushed to cut loss "before it gets worse". This is the danger of over-extending yourself - you have very few options.

Posted by passerby > 2012-11-22 18:57 | Report Abuse

MC: you always lepak at Subang 2 ? do you notice recently the properties at Subang 2 / Permai there is kind like a hot cake ?

Posted by minitrader > 2012-11-22 19:13 | Report Abuse

also, one thing to note, JCY has a huge share capital of 2.0bn (par value 0.25, Perisai 851.7m (par 0.10), Perdana 495.1m (par 0.50)and KNM 1.49bn (par 1.00). With so huge a share capital base, especially JCY, sometimes it's difficult to push up the price. Thus, a very highly liquid stock is also not good too, making it difficult too push up prices. What more on a selldown? That makes the stock vulnerable to selling pressure when the masses get panicky and start dumping.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-22 19:17 | Report Abuse

Not too familiar with this particular area - I'm often at the other side near to Mah Sing's upcoming Star Avenue and Subang Bestari. But you are right about the value of properties at the Subang Permai area. For one thing, it's closer to KL. The more important factor is its proximity to Guthrie Corridor.

This is one thing that I've realised and accepted of life in the Klang Valley: tolls are a way of life and, instead of fuming about paying, it's much better to accept it as part of one's regular monthly expenditure like electricity etc. and make allocations for it. Should I have the means to buy my own house here, it must be somewhere that's near to a toll entrance/exit.

You guys who have lived here for years and years might not realise it, but for me the road system here is good. Yes, it would be great if using these expressways is free. But we have to accept the fact that it costs a lot of money to build them and the people who risk their capital have the right to make reasonable profits.

Anyway, that's the key factor for me - easy access to the nearest expressway. Plus security.

Posted by passerby > 2012-11-22 19:26 | Report Abuse

Subang Bestari - you notice the big ongoing construction site for the upcoming Help University Main Campus ? that area, those properties investors are frying the medium low cost there like frying a penny stocks.

Posted by bursabulltrader > 2012-11-22 19:43 | Report Abuse

Aisheh....No rebound? Terrible...

Posted by minitrader > 2012-11-22 19:47 | Report Abuse

wait n c la bro...

Posted by dknycom > 2012-11-22 19:53 | Report Abuse

BLACK THURSDAY for JCY today. Shit....

Posted by KC Loh > 2012-11-22 19:53 | Report Abuse

Get ready to run naked MC! look someone predicted KNM below 30 sens before :)

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/cpteh/21005.jsp

Posted by minitrader > 2012-11-22 19:55 | Report Abuse

the problem is that some dungus gave very low fv of 0.35 to jcy...i think that analyst got hidden agenda...

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-11-22 19:55 | Report Abuse

alamak. my friend gila now.

dknycom, how your friend now? :l

Posted by DUnkin > 2012-11-22 20:52 | Report Abuse

Luckily i was away so did not "follow the flow"...my poor capital saved!

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-22 21:49 | Report Abuse

So that explains why the price around the Subang Bestari area is high! Some of the houses are very nice, especially the three-storey ones. But I feel the asking price in the secondary market is too much - many are just a bit cheaper than in Kota Damansara. Yes, it will be like KD eventually but that will take some years yet. These speculators seem to be jumping the gun, assuming that things will roll on sweetly forever as it has over the past few years or so.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-22 22:04 | Report Abuse

KC Loh, JCY might even go to 0.10 for all you know. Not impossible, if the troubles in Europe and the US debt worsens and a worldwide depression follows. But the point here is that let whatever due course follow first. How did the OSK fellow arrive at the 0.35 figure? Why not see how it fares at its immediate supports of 0.67 and then 0.64 first?

If these support levels hold, I'm willing to increase my stake - not only will I run naked to The Curve, I will also do jumping jacks in front of IKEA. On OSK's part, if JCY doesn't get to 0.35, please convert its branches into cybercafes or sell budu and tempoyak there instead. It just doesn't have it to be involved in the stockmarket.

Posted by alexlulu > 2012-11-22 22:17 | Report Abuse

breaching 40c is possible... out of favour tech stock always see huge punishment fr fund. how much was RIM? reseach in motion... it drop to less than 10% of the peak price just a few yrs ago.
reminder. this is a tech stock. not a old style property stock or banking or consumer stock.
really hate to see male running naked here n there.

Posted by minitrader > 2012-11-22 22:34 | Report Abuse

hahaha mat cendana..u got your point there..tp of 0.35 is at 0.6 P/B...as though jcy is worth nothing to OSK. It's a misnomer, and misleading to the investing public when there's a wide range of valuations from 0.35 to 0.85. Who to believe and what to accept?

TPs after Q4 results release..
Kenanga - 0.85 HOLD
CIMB - 0.77 SELL
HLIB - 0.73 HOLD
OSK - 0.35 SELL

Sometimes I would wonder if the analyst is competent enough to arrive at its FV or TP...???? No matter what argument or valuation methods he uses, the standard deviation among peers shouldn't be too wide.

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-11-22 22:36 | Report Abuse

yesterday i was kinda itchy itchy wanna buy at 0.85 lol, but then common sense prevail :p

i dont expected the result will be so f bad, i thought it will be just like 3rd quarter, but with a higher revenue and slightly lower margin.

lol.. and this quarter profit is not really 10++ millions, but it is 2.6m net profit because they loss 7++m in forex..

unless another thailand flood , otherwise..

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-22 23:10 | Report Abuse

Notice the huge deviation between this OSK analyst and the other IBs. If it does drop to 0.35, then one thing will be proven - that this guy is a true stockmarket genius who should also be crowned as "The King of Analysts". The least that I can do during his coronation is my "Run to The Curve and Jumping Jacks" as punishment and atonement in not recognising the glorious being that he is.

With these analysts, conveniently, they often do not provide any timeframe. It's like giving a TP of 4.50 for Bumi Armada, for instance (now 3.89). It goes to that... five years later in 2017. And that after ups and downs with a low of 2.50 somewhere along the way. If you put in enough years, any TP of whatever counter is bound to be correct eventually. That's why I had stated JCY *might* be 0.10. Or AirAsia 0.60, Nestle 2.50, TH Heavy 5.00, Mudajaya 8.00, Perisai 6.00... without things like bonus issues, splits, capital reductions, consolidation etc. "TIME"...

Back to OSK's TP - Is it saying that the price will be downhill all the way to 0.35? I'm not totally rejecting this figure "over time". But what if there's a significant rebound along the way?...that it gets to 0.80 or more in the next few months? Where does that leave investors who sell tomorrow at 0.70 "to cut loss", as OSK wants them to do, with its scary TP?

I don't gain or lose anything from JCY because I don't have it. However, I'm really displeased with how the analyst arrives at the TP figure. Hopefully someone can provide a link to this full report so that we can understand better.

Posted by sheep > 2012-11-22 23:13 | Report Abuse

16 November 2012
KUALA LUMPUR: MClean Technologies Bhd, provider of hard disk drives (HDDs) components, expects demand for the essential computer component to increase by the middle of next year.
Its CEO Bert Chow Kok Meng said demand for HDD would be relatively flat in the first-half of 2013 due to the sluggish global economy and the uncertainties over the euro.
“The release of Windows 8 and the increasing popularity of cloud storage and computing will stimulate demand by mid-2013,” he told The Malaysian Reserve.
He expects the global shipments for HDD for this year to be around 525 million units but it is expected to exceed 600 million by 2015.
Chow said the HDD industry is expected to grow by between 6% and 10% year-on-year in the middle of next year due to the increased demand.
HDD pricing is also expected to stabilise after the industrywide consolidation in the last two years, which in turn will mean healthy margins for manufacturers will continue, he added.
MClean is also anticipating to meet the demand by expanding its manufacturing facilities.
“We are still reviewing our expansion plans in view of the massive flooding in Thailand in 2011. We have looked at various options and have yet to decide.
“In the short term, we think our plants in Singapore [photo] and China will be able to meet the short- and mid-term increase in demand,” he said.
Chow said its China plants will continue to expand HDD manufacturing and will be in a position to take advantage of the rising demand for the component, and that total revenue from the Chinese plants are expected to surpass that of its home manufacturing plants in Singapore for 2012.
A double-digit growth is expected for China’s HDD industry, while the forecast for the industry in Singapore shows single-digit growth.

Posted by passerby > 2012-11-22 23:31 | Report Abuse

lol, about running naked bet, if only MC is a young lady with measurement of 36-24-36 , looks like one of Korean hot actress, I'll pray every day to god almighty that JCY price to drop to 0.35 :)

Posted by minitrader > 2012-11-22 23:40 | Report Abuse

if drops to 0.35, every shareholder of jcy will be running naked n pissing all over the town leh...hahaha

Posted by Noraini Ismail > 2012-11-22 23:47 | Report Abuse

Interesting article, There's still future for HDD manufacturers.
JCY from overbought in a day suddenly turn to oversold. Never seen this before.
The IB's really has no mercy on JCY. This 2nd time JCY got hit by IB reporting.
Looking at 26 weeks low was 0.66. If price drop further to 0.66 then there's creation of double bottom. Rebound will take place sooner compare to the 1st time hit by IB.
Stay calm, hope no more panic selling tomorrow.

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-11-22 23:49 | Report Abuse

those IB tp all also crap 1 la, who give a damn anyway, remember cimb used to give RM 2.2 to jcy?

and mister lamken RM 4?

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-22 23:50 | Report Abuse

By the way, my comments here should not be taken to mean that I'm saying "Hold or buy JCY because it should rebound soon." Or "Sell now to cut loss because it looks like going down further." I don't have any opinion about its price at the moment because I'm surprised by it all. My focus right now is solely on OSK and its manner with the TP.

If any of you guys are holding JCY, it's best that you make your own decisions. It's very easy for others to say "Cut loss" or "Hold" or whatever. But only those in a similar situation will understand that undecided feeling inside with whatever decision that's made. All of us would have been in this situation - Sell to cut loss... and then the price rebounds. Or hold, only to see it sliding further. That's the dilemma.

I've looked at the price movement and transactions from the start of trading today, trying to visualise what I would have done. Actually I was only able to follow the market at 11am and so had missed the start.

In retrospect, anyone could sagely offer this `advice' of "You should have cut loss early on." How was the trader to know what was to follow??

Posted by bonescythe > 2012-11-22 23:54 | Report Abuse

Is lamken going to privatize JCY at 70 cents?

Posted by minitrader > 2012-11-22 23:55 | Report Abuse

still got hope one...it's not the end of the world yet...only the mothers of dooms are mkt adverse n come up with funny valuations...sometimes I would wonder whether some of their TPs are reliable or not...JCY is not loss-making...y worry? I'm sure there's a better intrinsic value to the stock...not 0.35 or 0.10 LOL

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-23 00:05 | Report Abuse

@Fat Cat, the problem is people do give a lot of attention and make decisions based on these analysts' reports. And the media too would use these to write their articles or at the very least repeat what these analysts had said. These reports can be useful, and some analysts have gotten things right at times. So, which analysts and IBs do we follow and who should we look upon with suspicion?

Maybe someone or group should start a site or page where we can track the accuracy of these reports and highlight how right or wrong they have been. This forum can be such a place because we have links to various past reports by them. We should try separate the consistently good ones from those who should be working in some other line of work.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-23 00:15 | Report Abuse

What a great resource i3investor is! Here's the link to the OSK report: "JCY International - Time to Let go"
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/11931.jsp

Among other things, it says "JCY's FY12 results were disappointing, as its full-year core earnings only made up 83%/87% of our/consensus forecasts." <--- A 17% shortfall in earnings forecast means... JCY should be only 0.35?!

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-11-23 00:43 | Report Abuse

Another questionable entry in the OSK report: It forecasts EPS of 7.7 sen and 7.4 sen for 2013 and 2014.

Since JCY is still going to make a PROFIT, why such a low TP?? Par value of 0.25 and earning 0.077 - that's the equivalent of a 1.00 par company earning 30 sen per share. How many are managing that? As a general rule of thumb, its share price should be around 2.50-3.00. With a 25 sen par, that should be 0.625-0.75. And we haven't taken dividends into account yet!

Treat this OSK report with caution. It's either one of three things:
1) The analyst is a true-blue stockmarket genius, OR
2) He has hidden and deceitful interests and motives, OR
3) He's actually a numskull masquerading as an analyst who should be writing advertisement stickers for the Alongs instead.

Posted by minitrader > 2012-11-23 00:50 | Report Abuse

that dungu assigned a PER of 4.5x to the stock with EPS of 7.7sen for FY13...and that's how he derived that 0.35 (7.7x4.5). Why pick 4.5x? On what basis? Industry average? Plugged from the sky??? That guy suka suka only gave a number???