Posted by gohshiau > 2012-05-17 22:36 | Report Abuse

Mr.Lamken if u dont mind pls send me the info more deeply, TQ
gohshiau@gmail.com

Posted by ymj1016 > 2012-05-17 22:36 | Report Abuse

Nkn: what lam ken means was that there will be a ready buyer to absorb all the shares that will be throw out by the cowboys during their process of pressing the price down...so, back to the strategy, all we need to do now is to keep selling higher and higher, in order to match up the big players to fight back the cowboys...till a point where all of them (cowboys) felt unsecured, they will panickly desire for more mothers...then you do your own calculations then...what would happened to the mother's price then...
Please correct me if I interprete it wrongly, thanks..!

Big thanks to you,Lamken for all the infos!!

Posted by lamken > 2012-05-17 22:37 | Report Abuse

You have to watch the price from tommorrow
To find out. The proof will be in the price movements from
Tommorrow.

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-05-17 22:39 | Report Abuse

7.94 cent + 40% for the remaining quarter?

this was post by lamken 3 months ago, obviously he is too optimistic.

optimistic is good, but over is bad.

currently the jcy china factory is start operating, it should add some extra capacity into the output, if everything run smoothly.

seagate currently trade at PE 6.84 , while WD at 8.96, i think.. jcy stock price should be value according to this 2 company.

so.. conservative EPS for year 2012 will be 32 cent, NAPS 55 cent.

let value jcy at PER 7, 0.32*7 + 0.55 = RM2.79

my opinion is , if the price of HDD gonna be stable for the next few years, conservative long term fair value of jcy will be RM2.79 per share.

just my 1 cent.

Posted by pjforsuccess > 2012-05-17 22:42 | Report Abuse

i am new to the term cowboys. may i know who are 'cowboys' ? thank u

Posted by diablo88 > 2012-05-17 22:44 | Report Abuse

fair enough..I trust you Lamken

Posted by Rajandaran Kannaya > 2012-05-17 22:45 | Report Abuse

Kindly add me too in your mailing list @ r_kannaya@yahoo.com
THank you and appreciate it.

Posted by lamken > 2012-05-17 22:51 | Report Abuse

how high the price will go depend on how high a certain person and his allys want to push it and what point the cowboys start to panic. to avoid a repeat of last JCY-CD, tonight I confirm again the mee GORENG festival is definately starting tommorrow.

mee goreng and shark flake/fishchips is not a bad combination.

Posted by alntm > 2012-05-17 22:51 | Report Abuse

layman check- daily rsi above 50 range but not overbought. daily macd to cross signal line, weekly macd still above and holding. stoch is steep and above %d, sma 20 still above ema 30. q rpt out w good results...hmm uptrend still looks like its there. yup lets monitor how it trades.

Posted by diablo88 > 2012-05-17 22:52 | Report Abuse

Lamken..does it means from tomorrow onwards you will not see the price you seeing today anymore because is going to fly! Does it also means it will not drop for sure?

Posted by nkn1 > 2012-05-17 22:55 | Report Abuse

If not YKY the major shareholder taking it private I am speculating it will be Seagate or WD who will buy a big minority stake from the open market. Think about it, if you are Seagate will you spend hundreds of millions to rebuild your factory in Thailand knowing that it can be flooded again when the same amount of money can buy a meaningful stake in JCY and secure JCY production capacity?

Posted by alntm > 2012-05-17 22:57 | Report Abuse

oh oh bro lamken dont tell me is a famous personality whose intials i wont even mention, who like tech stocks! haha...aiyo enough lor...see how trade tomorrow..

Posted by ymj1016 > 2012-05-17 22:57 | Report Abuse

Fat cat: you're right that the price of hdd were reducing over the period, but I think this won't be affecting jcy, as it will dominate the market share more over it's competitors. The question will be the demand of hdd moving forward. As long as the demand continue to grow, then, jcy will continue to prosper.

Posted by diablo88 > 2012-05-17 23:01 | Report Abuse

that someone must be super rich to take all the mother!

Posted by Cheekeng Chu > 2012-05-17 23:05 | Report Abuse

hi Lamken, pls add me in the list chloexy2010@gmail.com. yr info is fantastic.

Posted by lamken > 2012-05-17 23:06 | Report Abuse

It may fly tommorrow but it not going to be 2.50 in one day otherwise that is heading for suspension. It means the price should keep going up gradually quite fast and if anyone try to press by throwing, it will be collected anyway. Of course Iam not one of the the big boys buying up so I cannot say exactly how much it will go up each day.

whoever you think Iam, Iam not. Lets stop the speculation. just watch the price from tommorrow.

Posted by nkn1 > 2012-05-17 23:08 | Report Abuse

10 percent stake in JCY may be around 425 mil RM if ave buying price is around 1.75 RM. In USD it is peanuts in terms of CAPEX investments

Posted by lamken > 2012-05-17 23:09 | Report Abuse

A special message for the cowboys who have been reading my posts:

"Judgement day cometh, that right soon".

Ecclesiasticus 21:5

Posted by Steven Lee > 2012-05-17 23:13 | Report Abuse

I guess Lamken had share all he know in this forum, so pls stop requesting Lamken to include ur email to his list?

Posted by Steven Lee > 2012-05-17 23:13 | Report Abuse

Lamken is not Chong anyway =P

Posted by bomblikeme > 2012-05-17 23:52 | Report Abuse

NKN1: Your point is definitely valid..one of the methods of securing or influencing production & price for any industry is to enter a LTA or buying a stake in a company. With that, be it Seagate or WD, there will be purchasing the components from JCY at a certain price, while JCY may not have an inflated profit, in any case another flood come along, but JCY will be promised with nice profit stream, which if FA is concern that is more important. And true that to open another new factory, too much costs and handling to do..anyway Lamken, 'yam seng' to you and everyone..

Posted by Handsome > 2012-05-18 04:39 | Report Abuse

well done lamken,still remember me? what you said is correct. how about considering the global factor and reduce the TP by 20%?

Posted by usry > 2012-05-18 07:57 | Report Abuse

20% of RM2.00 = Rm0.40
so the new TP is RM1.60..
how can bro..
yesterday close is RM1.57

Posted by bintong > 2012-05-18 08:05 | Report Abuse

Lamken: Mee goreng festival....hahaha..I would just say Xmas come early this year.
And to those 'cowboys', GAMES OVER!!!

Posted by lamken > 2012-05-18 08:06 | Report Abuse

handsome: of course remember you, the only one who understand me on this forum. That is a fair call. Revise TP to RM 3.20 only because you are good looking. haha.

Posted by pjforsuccess > 2012-05-18 08:50 | Report Abuse

how about the possibilities that buy on rumors and sell on news ? can it be ?

Posted by rookiemy > 2012-05-18 09:00 | Report Abuse

given the recent market sentiment, I wont be surprised if that is the scenario today. Selling also took place after 1st qtr results was announced.

Posted by usry > 2012-05-18 09:09 | Report Abuse

sell on news.. as usual..

Posted by pjforsuccess > 2012-05-18 09:10 | Report Abuse

prices drop today, for how long ?

Posted by rookiemy > 2012-05-18 09:10 | Report Abuse

will enter again when price is right.

Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-05-18 09:14 | Report Abuse

JCY OK. Stoc: OK. MA: OK :) at 9:10am

Posted by illidonleong > 2012-05-18 09:24 | Report Abuse

buy rate is high but share price haven increase. scary.

Posted by rookiemy > 2012-05-18 09:30 | Report Abuse

the mood is set for some profit taking after a sharp rebound. this is expected before the stock can move higher.

Posted by ahyeo > 2012-05-18 09:34 | Report Abuse

Looks like the battle is on

Posted by illidonleong > 2012-05-18 09:35 | Report Abuse

too bad i no more bullets. if not just now could buy more.

Posted by yanerfei > 2012-05-18 09:36 | Report Abuse

good for me for day trade of the warrants, any panic selling for mother share is a chance...

Posted by ahyeo > 2012-05-18 09:49 | Report Abuse

Coming back up

Posted by horizon > 2012-05-18 10:06 | Report Abuse

Cowboys seem to have a lots of stock to sell. Where they find so many? I suspect they are short-selling naked. Banks can do it and cover back intraday.

Cowboys sell, sell, sell. Then let price go up. Cover back position. Repeat process. Like that we will be stuck in a range bound game. (Damn!)

If owner decides enough is enough, then let price drop to teach cowboys a lesson. We pulak blur blur kena burnt. But cowboys don't mind cause they won't kena belasah on their call warrants. Macam anyhow also we die.

Possible?

Posted by alntm > 2012-05-18 10:11 | Report Abuse

if price dont go down as much as cowboys aim for, then shorters will buy back to minimise their loss. and when that happens, the price will rocket fuel up.

Posted by ymj1016 > 2012-05-18 10:21 | Report Abuse

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/5/18/business/20120518094648&sec=business

Posted by ymj1016 > 2012-05-18 10:25 | Report Abuse

From every point I see, I can only see fortunes are coming in...wait until 4pm later for a good show...stay tuned!

Posted by yanerfei > 2012-05-18 10:26 | Report Abuse

CIMB Research always give higher TP ...

Posted by horizon > 2012-05-18 10:28 | Report Abuse

Bro alntm,

If I were the cowboys, my intention is to prevent the mother price from flying. The strategy I mentioned is to keep the price range bound and frustrate the owner. Since main objective is to make money from issuing warrants and not from mother (else they would not have issued the warrants), they do not have to sell the price down significantly. Just keep it within a 'comfortable' range everyday, they will be able to cover open position.

Objectives of cowboy - buy time until warrant expire, and in the meantime make sure mother don't fly too high until after warrants expire.

Posted by bomblikeme > 2012-05-18 10:32 | Report Abuse

yanerfei: they are doing it like how goldman sachs always do for WTI Crude oil price..which back in 2008, the influx had made Goldman Sachs flew up to more fame..

Posted by alntm > 2012-05-18 10:42 | Report Abuse

bro horizon - lets see if range can be contained..for price not to fly to high, they need to short, or sell the shares leveraged for warrants. i thk they prefer the former, cos the latter will increase risk exposure of waarrants..

since jcy got +ve sentiment..keeping range bound more difficult, and each time fail to keep it range bound, it will jump higher. my 2 cents from a layman pov.

Posted by alntm > 2012-05-18 10:44 | Report Abuse

and thats where the sifu's make $$$ from failed short selling....can go eat abalone..

Posted by meorwz > 2012-05-18 11:33 | Report Abuse

i do not understand this trend of comments...
The earliest Maturity for JCY warrant is Nov 2012...surely this is a futile strategy.
the Good reviews in the papers & by trading houses, should boost the price. why would you want to stifle it, when every other stock is dropping south?

Posted by ahyeo > 2012-05-18 11:50 | Report Abuse

Right. They should sell their other counters and put them in JCY

Posted by horizon > 2012-05-18 12:09 | Report Abuse

Meorwz,

"the Good reviews in the papers & by trading houses, should boost the price."

Logically speaking this is correct. I think you need to understand the comments in this thread on the owner and the cowboys. The owner wants the price to go up. The cowboys i.e. the investment banks who issued the warrants (I suspect we are talking about 2 of them only) want the price suppressed. If the IBs let the price fly to RM2 or RM3, they will be trembing more and more by the day as expiration draws closer. European style call warrants have short term lifespan. The IBs do not want warrant holders to exercise for obvious reasons. And it is not easy to cause a, say RM3 share, to plummet by half especially when the owner wants to reflect actual value. Hence, the tussle between them now, good news or not.


"why would you want to stifle it, when every other stock is dropping south?"

Don't understand this comment. Prevent price from going up when everyone else is falling?

Posted by Jjtrader > 2012-05-18 13:22 | Report Abuse

It seems today selling pressure is too high, Hard for JCY to advance. Hope it can at least maintain the price at current level.