Posted by LittleY > 2012-05-18 16:36 | Report Abuse

First, I rule out the possibility of "volume creation" trick, as if left hand sells to right hand trick will need quite big number of queue on the left and right, to avoid somebody cut queue.

So, if this is not left and right exchanges, it must be assault and defend.

14 million at conservative estimation, this is a battle.

Posted by nubhan > 2012-05-18 16:36 | Report Abuse

normally big news always happens after trading session on Friday.

Posted by horizon > 2012-05-18 16:39 | Report Abuse

hero lamken is very quiet today.

bro, any update to sooth our nerves?

Posted by LittleY > 2012-05-18 16:40 | Report Abuse

Second, if the defender knows someone is so eager to sell or, the reverse, if the seller knows someone is so eager to push up the price, why won't both sides wait until the other side to get to their destination, then they can collect at lower price or higher price.

I don't see this is happening, I just see sells and buys, blinks and blinks. That's is not reasonable.

Posted by LittleY > 2012-05-18 16:42 | Report Abuse

Third, why 1.50? can TA expert share what the 1.50 means in graph?

Posted by LittleY > 2012-05-18 16:51 | Report Abuse

Now ends the price matching, at 1.47.

If not much shares are traded within the last 10 mins, that will prove my hypothesis, this is a battle.

Posted by rookiemy > 2012-05-18 16:52 | Report Abuse

a simple analogy for illustration purpose, hope can calm your mind. a fall from recent high of 1.65 to a low of 1.33 is like stretching a spring to the extreme. when release (rebound), assuming the price can go back up 2/3 due to the energy stored in the spring, that will gives roughly 1.54 (2/3 mark between 1.65 and 1.33), in fact it closed @1.57 yesterday. now assuming the energy now exhausted, will the reverse happen? surely. assuming 1/3 energy remain, from the recent low of 1.33 rebound to yesterday high of 1.58, 1/3 mark gives you 1.49. so here we are.

the above is just for illustration purpose, stock price behave in a yo-yo manner after a deep dive or a sharp rise. I will exit this stock when its uptrend ends.

Posted by rookiemy > 2012-05-18 17:00 | Report Abuse

on my 60 mins chart, a gap up occured @1.4 on 15 May. My personal view, the price may go as low as 1.4 to close the gap before it move up again.

Posted by LittleY > 2012-05-18 17:06 | Report Abuse

Forget it, sharemarket is irrational, don't want to screw my mind for why something happens in sharemarket. Maybe, something happen next week will explain what is happening today.

Posted by horizon > 2012-05-18 17:08 | Report Abuse

Bro rookiemy,

My 2 sen worth.

At times of panic sell-off or war between players (like in this case), charts no longer apply.

What we are having now is a war between owner and the 2 IBs. Prices are at their whims. It has even got to do with egos at times.

Posted by lamken > 2012-05-18 17:11 | Report Abuse

Day 1 and morale this low already. Iam disapointed. As long as cowboys still have mother they will continue to press, even more agressive now because they can see someone is fighting back. If I was the allys, I will take the bullets off the cowboys first, the more they press, the better because the more mother they are giving up. Price cannot go up until the bullets have been removed from the cowboys (if price push is done now, they will just press it back down again). To press they must sell, when sell, their ammo keep decreasing becuase it will be collected.

Talking about movie, I like the scene in the "romance of three kingdoms" where the adviser send a small boat out to the enemy at Sea and enemy shoot all the arrows at the small boat and enemy laugh thinking they won. But small boat actually collect all the arrows. I really like that scene.

Posted by taxi > 2012-05-18 17:13 | Report Abuse

chao chuan jie jian

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-05-18 17:26 | Report Abuse

those banks job is force the crowd to cut loss, because your loss is their gain.

there* will always have cut loss by contra kaki, margin call , they are force to cut loss, if you can simply buy and hold, the share price will only up in the long run.

but in such volatile counter, simply buy and hold is kind of silly, there will be a lot of $$ can made from it ( if you know what you doing )

Posted by Namoyaki Takarajima > 2012-05-18 17:28 | Report Abuse

my dear bro lamken, at this kind of situations, you may wants to smile and be quiet, and look back to your 1 week path.

Posted by yangkwang > 2012-05-18 17:38 | Report Abuse

Lamken, guess u will hav more time to yourself tonight as people will
not hassle u to update them! Sometimes in war, we may hav to change
strategy without much notice.Thanks for the info anyway,I am keeping my faith in you.ok .Have a nice weekend!

Posted by rookiemy > 2012-05-18 17:42 | Report Abuse

horizon: you would have a different opinion if you know what i know. for all i know, market trend is powerful, not even IBs can go against. chart dun lie, it is how u interpret it, it is that simple. in jcy case, panic reached its max on 15 May. all you need to do is buy in on 15 may sell on 16 or 17. you should be making money. now if history can provide any guidance at all, the last sell off after 1st quarter announcement should be a good example. that was why i made a forehand call to enter @1.36. and disposed the next day. I even asked why buy @1.51 knowing that there would profit taking after the rebound. when do you think the IBs will buy in? 16? 17? or 15?

Posted by baramundi80 > 2012-05-18 17:42 | Report Abuse

nampak ramai org jatuh cinta pada counter ini...hehehe

Posted by Jjtrader > 2012-05-18 17:55 | Report Abuse

Lamken I also trust you and together we fight the war. Right now I just hold tight and put all my shares in PETI SEJUK. Ha ha. I believe at last we will sure win the war. To lost a battle is nothing the important things is the victory at the end. Besides I have holding power , not scare at all.

Posted by odelette > 2012-05-18 18:32 | Report Abuse

hmm.. Now the sharks are kept selling the shares and lower the share prices.. But what is the purpose CIMB made the news that this counter TP is 2.22???
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/5/18/business/20120518094648&sec=business

Posted by alntm > 2012-05-18 19:00 | Report Abuse

everyone is selling on news + greece. its naive to thk we are immune. with the good results, if holding power is there, price will raise even to rm 3, i believe. if the ppl collect today just hold, we shall soon see a change in price. trouble is you cant tell the market what to do and that is perfectly how it should be :)

Posted by Jjtrader > 2012-05-18 19:08 | Report Abuse

Sorry bro Usry, when the moment you asked me about the support of JCY I was busy buying JCY and no time to answer you. Today bought another 300 lots at RM 1.48 (You may say I m silly or stupid to buy at this moment but I dun care because I believe what Lamken said is truth). I will hold the shares until it become very expensive.

Posted by baramundi80 > 2012-05-18 19:21 | Report Abuse

uuhhh....garangnya...hehehe

Posted by ktrader > 2012-05-18 19:23 | Report Abuse

Hahaha....very expensive tu berapa ya?

Posted by baramundi80 > 2012-05-18 19:24 | Report Abuse

banyak...harga turun nanti heart attack...hehehe

Posted by rookiemy > 2012-05-18 19:36 | Report Abuse

Having read thru some of the comments here, I cant help but thinking that most of us dun have an idea where we are heading and hence all the nerve racking moments.

if you are in this stock for Fundamental reason and plan to hold for a longer term, so to speak, then the short terms Ups and Downs shouldnt have bother you. If you invest based on FA, then 2nd quarter results should at least give you comfort, knowing that the recovery is on track. why keep getting haunted by this shark thing!

Posted by Teh Tiong Boon > 2012-05-18 19:39 | Report Abuse

Any news why nicorp drop so teruk?

Posted by verylovely > 2012-05-18 19:40 | Report Abuse

Both Notion Vtec and JCY have reported wonderful financial results on the same day. The drop are mainly due to big players take opportunity of current global markets. In near future, hopefully both Notion Vtec and JCY will outperform and reach the next high, based on current very attractive PER.

Posted by baramundi80 > 2012-05-18 19:43 | Report Abuse

looks like u have not read the cicak news...hehehhe

Posted by rookiemy > 2012-05-18 19:52 | Report Abuse

what cicak news ? care to share?

Posted by nkn1 > 2012-05-18 22:25 | Report Abuse

I am a believer of PE investing. Mid to long term I still believe a privatization is in the cards. They can almost double their value with a listing in HK or Spore. It will be too irresistable

Posted by Kent Lee > 2012-05-19 13:21 | Report Abuse

retraced despite a good healthy quarter...

Posted by Jjtrader > 2012-05-19 13:32 | Report Abuse

This is because a lot of people think that the profitability is not sustainable in Q3 and onwards. That why they sell.

Posted by yangkwang > 2012-05-19 13:36 | Report Abuse

To make BIG MONEY not number of lots! but BIG FAITH in what u BUY!!!
why brokers had high tp? simple, the biz circumstances JCY is in, makes
the current price VERY attractively CHEAP!!!
Happy trading this counter!!!

Posted by Kim Yap Lau > 2012-05-19 13:42 | Report Abuse

Got a friend share with me JCY's boss is part of WDC shareholder. True?

Posted by diablo88 > 2012-05-19 17:35 | Report Abuse

Initially I also think the profit may not sustain but after reading the reports I strongly believe the profit at least sustainable for 2 more quarters. Who knows during know to the end of the 2 quarters what will happen? Who knows Seagate will give all the LTA to JCY? Then is it sustainable then?

Beside, I think the explosion of data storage needs due to cloud computing is going to drive the needs. Flash memory will never replace HDD and that is never the big volume that will dilute the market share of HDD.

Posted by Jjtrader > 2012-05-20 20:32 | Report Abuse

Will JCY retrace back to RM 1.33 again ?

Posted by Steven Lee > 2012-05-20 21:02 | Report Abuse

any TP for tomorrow? continue to plunge? =/

Posted by rookiemy > 2012-05-20 21:11 | Report Abuse

on my daily chart, jcy's friday closing of 1.47 rest right on 20d ema. since this ema has been broken recently, i dun expect it to provide much support. on my 60 minutes chart, 1.47 is below my short term ema of 20 and 50. if on Monday, the price do not open and trade above 1.49, then these short term emas on my 60 minutes chart will act as resistant each time the stock rebound. If this is the case then more downside is expected.

should the price drop further on Monday, my personal view is that the 50d ema on the daily chart should be a more meaningful support. cos on 15/5 the opening 1.36 is where the stock hit the 50d ema.

Posted by pureland > 2012-05-20 21:17 | Report Abuse

Further thought after Diablo88’s comment:

Lamken also provided us with a wealth of information on the sustainability during 31 Mar. By capturing a larger market share, future revenue of JCY could remain high at current level despite normalization of HDD prices eventually.

But my concern is on the future revenue growth. Comparing the current quarter with the preceding one, Q2 revenue only increased by 3% from Q1 and there was little change in the net profit. Has the company turnover reached its peak? Was Q2 sales confined by the maximum production capacity? Are we going to see more than 30% surge in topline during Q3 (with new China plant and effect of RM300mil capital expenditure start flowing in)?

Posted by pureland > 2012-05-20 21:18 | Report Abuse

Another question is for Handsome. You made a statement that “Do not keep JCY after 3rd quarter”. Do you foresee profit to turn ugly by then?

Posted by pureland > 2012-05-20 21:24 | Report Abuse

If the price of a stock is managed, I believe that the invisible hand is well versed in TA also. They can set the price and let you interpret the trend in the way they want.

BTW, I am not an expert in TA. Just my 2 cents.

Posted by usry > 2012-05-20 21:27 | Report Abuse

agree with Handsome, may be he suggest ut not to keep JCY after 3rd quarter coz that time most of CA will xpired. For sure issuance bank will 'press' down mother share. so we should throw JCY as early as October/november.
(just my assuming)

Posted by rookiemy > 2012-05-20 21:44 | Report Abuse

pureland: TA, to me, is just a tool to help me interpret volume and price action. TA dun give you buy or sell signal. It is the person who interpret it that make the decision. Just like earlier on, I asked why buy in @1.51 when I know the stock will reverse in the course of rebound.

Your so call invincible hand may well control the price within a price range. Buy in general they have to work within the underlying trend as well.

Posted by bomblikeme > 2012-05-21 09:20 | Report Abuse

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/5/21/business/11321539&sec=business

Posted by nubhan > 2012-05-21 09:29 | Report Abuse

jcy keep falling. will folow hibiscus?

Posted by usry > 2012-05-21 09:36 | Report Abuse

buy on rumors and sell on news.. may be it take 2-3 week for this counter to climb again.(same as 1st quarter report on March this year) how ever this is my opinion only.will monitor further.

Posted by Yuzuki > 2012-05-21 10:05 | Report Abuse

congrats to those that took profit at 1.56 - 1.58 lol

Posted by meljohn > 2012-05-21 10:08 | Report Abuse

keep buying after seeing CIMB news 2.22 but ...

Posted by baramundi80 > 2012-05-21 10:10 | Report Abuse

phewww....lucky i jual last week at RM1.56....hehehe Bro Yuzuki u ada jual tak?

Posted by NKN1 > 2012-05-21 10:12 | Report Abuse

appetizer my foot