Is wonderful that i am able to clear all my position in this unmovable counter before QR is out. Hope it can make you all rich but i need to move on to other better companies. Doubt it will has any chances of moving higher. Row row row your boat. Gently down the stream. Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily. Moving up is but a dream.
bought a few at 0.685 this morning, switching to here with some of cash unlocked from HARBOUR. disappointed with QR there. moving here as I notice price still lagging behind comparatively in recent movement. hopefully this counter QR can deliver better
top up a few more between 0.665 & 0.675. at current price, the expectation for next QR is relatively low as compared to HARBOUR. a mere 2 EPS can easily support current price while freight rate remains high.
for being direct competitor of HARBOUR, SYGROUP also has a good chance at performing beyond expectation this QR while HARBOUR performance is a little bit lackluster.
most importantly market price wise, SYGROUP is approximately just RM1.35 (RM0.675 x2) in compare to HARBOUR's RM1.60. "assuming HARBOUR fundamental instrinsic value is twice higher than SYGROUP"
sygroup QR, within my lower expectation, better than harbour in comparatively as sygroup is only RM1.38 (RM6.90 x2) in comparative with harbour's RM1.60, assuming harbour worth only 2x the value per share of sygroup
@SincereStock, nice trading. Looking at this specific company for the first time. It's clearly a cyclical stock with most earnings from shipping and recently from shipbuilding. Have at least 2-3 really great years since 2021, able to turn around net debt to net cash, and started paying annual dividends twice. But cyclical also means eventually, shipping rates will turn down one day and the net cash will disappear and revert back to net debt if they don't manage well - we are talking over years. Worst fears during Covid pandemic, when it's Net Debt ballooned and share price dropped to a low 12 sen. Company has been buying back stocks up to 69.5 sen. unclear if company plans to buy back at 70 sen+ or not. I think releasing half at 76.5-77.5 sen looks right to reduce risk. Longer term, no of vessels are reducing, so, the company doesn't think the good shipping rates will last longer than a few years and probably waiting for rates to eventually come down and then buy more vessels at the cycle low. This is normal shipping strategy to not chase but anticipate cycles. I won't chase for sure. But it's in my radar screen for dips and cycle lows in the future coming years.
On paper, it's clear to me, management quality is superior - rates B+ or A-. Family owned business, founders 3 brothers + 1 sister age 60-71 i.e. they won't be around forever. Succession already in place with son age 42 sitting in the board. Just remember, business is cyclical over years. Just remember - despite good management, this stock can crash down to as low as 12 sen during Covid pandemic lockdowns / recession. This is not a Buy and Hold stock, don't buy it for the dividends, don't own it for its Net Cash.
Anywhere, smart or not smart... If a taikon bought 80c @ 1mils shares sold 84.5c earns $45k a day.. A smart person bought 60c@20,000 shares sold 84.5c earns $4.9k
So..... Smart or not smart in every different sencerio different outcome!
@pang72 I think what speakup meant was if a retailer don't buy when the price is cheaper, why chase only price goes higher? basically, those are what technical traders usually do. not fundamental traders
if you are not interested in a counter when it is cheaper, you not suppose to be interested in the same counter at more expensive price. assuming it's fundamental didn't change but only price changes
nevertheless, as opposed to speakup suggestion to bought in at 0.60, I would suggest bought in price at 0.685+ after the latest QR announcement, in corresponding of it's fundamental catching up with harbour but it's price hasn't reflected in correlation with harbour.
if you notice today movement between this 2 counters, you will notice strong correlation between the two, refering to near 2.48pm when both starting to dip at the same time. however, it is also proven that at this stage, sygroup is stronger and resisted better than harbour
Sincerestock, Thanks for advise. Your approach more favour to me that I keep an eye on SYGROUP after QR out with commendable 3c. It is a buy like you say. Good!
sold a few sygroup to lock profit at 0.775, less than half left (12 june 2024 9.19am)
decided to reduce my stacks in logistic due to red sea creasefire agreement. besides, as i predicted sygroup : harbour price are getting closer into 1 : 2. too bad that it is due to harbour lowering down to sygroup, instead of sygroup chasing up to harbour
happening already now, sygroup has now overtaken harbour price in term of 1 : 2 ratio. with sygroup rally higher to 0.830 from 0.70, while harbour remain stagnant at 1.6 level
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
SCM2023
95 posts
Posted by SCM2023 > 2024-03-01 19:26 | Report Abuse
Is wonderful that i am able to clear all my position in this unmovable counter before QR is out. Hope it can make you all rich but i need to move on to other better companies. Doubt it will has any chances of moving higher. Row row row your boat. Gently down the stream.
Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily. Moving up is but a dream.