Plantation, aside from the non-cash forex losses, performed remarkably well. CPO yield is 7 to 8 tonnes/ha, throwing behind many established plantation companies. Look at the increase in CPO sales from 76.6k tonnes to 108.9k tonnes. This is poised to increase further with more trees coming into maturity. Average selling price of CPO was less than RM2,000 a ton in FY2015. Big impact on earnings if CPO price average RM2,300 next year.
MKH is consolidating now. Future drivers of MKH share price: - MRT line 2 realignment - Further improving CPO yields from maturing trees - Potential further upside to CPO price in 2016 - RM reverses from its undervalued status in 2016
First interim dividend of 7 cents/share gives decent DY of 3.1%. Looks liked downtrend for more than a year is over. Now in sideways consolidation waiting for breakout towards uptrend.
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2016 plantation outlook for MKH. - tightening output in the market due to dry weather associated with El Nino - CPO price to be trading up - higher output by MKH due to young trees and more trees come into maturity - USD borrowing being liquidated and softening of USD (likely after Fed lifts its rate) Happy investing!
unbilled sales of 920mil couple with rupiah appreciate vs usd from oct - dec 2015 and more and more palm oil trees matured, the coming quarterly in end of feb will give you a special surprise in net profit, especially huge gain in forex.
Looking at the improving CPO prices, we may see the plantation segment pulling its weight for MKH's earnings breakdown contribution. This will drive make the forward p/e more attractive at current levels. May see a re-rating from analysts. Young tree profile of between 6-7 years, ffb yield is very good as well!
I think something to keep in mind is that the main argument for an increase in CPO prices due to El Nino is that supply is expected to fall in the future. Hence, the amount of Palm Oil that produced may also take a hit, which may affect overall profits.
However, the decline in output will be more severe for Indonesia than for Malaysia. Hence, Palm Oil producers in Malaysia should theoretically be able to gain from this situation.
While others are affected, MKH says its own estates expect minimal El Nino impact as it is located at the equuator with adequate rain fall and good network of canals for irrigation.
The sensitivity analysis of foreign exchange risks as shown in its latest annual report, MKH says if USD weakens against IDR by 5%, the PBT is to increase by RM12 million and vice-versa.
you are right, aero1... strong rupiah definitely will boost the earning of mkh. mkh suffered from forex loss in last 3 quarters (q2 2015 loss 13.8mil, q3 2015 loss 5.4mil and q4 2015 loss 18mil) due to weaken of rupiah. now is the time for mkh to gain back the previous loss.
unexpected of forex gain rm23mil as idr appreciated 6% only vs usd as at 31 dec 2015 from 30 sep 2015. well done for the management to hold the cpo sales volume to following quarter for higher cpo price. next quarter will be higher revenue and profit in plantation sector. unbilled sales stood at rm826.8mil and more and more sales will be recognised in next quarters.
Yes plantation earnings is expected to go higher on the back of higher CPO and PK prices and sales quantities and the resilient IDR. Q1 has EPS of 14 sen!
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Aero1
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Posted by Aero1 > 2015-11-29 20:41 | Report Abuse
Plantation, aside from the non-cash forex losses, performed remarkably well. CPO yield is 7 to 8 tonnes/ha, throwing behind many established plantation companies. Look at the increase in CPO sales from 76.6k tonnes to 108.9k tonnes. This is poised to increase further with more trees coming into maturity. Average selling price of CPO was less than RM2,000 a ton in FY2015. Big impact on earnings if CPO price average RM2,300 next year.