In fact if the one-ff gain is taken out, the profit margin in the property segment has been creeping higher. Good mix of products including with more high rise projects near the MRT/LRT.
Now that MKH has crossed 1 bil market value, this may prompt certain funds (with mandate to invest in company of at least 1 billion) to consider to invest.
Remember few years back IOI acquired a plantation company owning a similar hectages ie. 15k ha or RM66k per ha for a consideration of RM1 billion. What you are paying now is for the plantation assets in MKH. You'll also get to buy property assets for free. SImple!
(1) property - unbilled property sales rm827mil + sales of new property in 2016Q1 (201mil - (920mil - 827mil) = rm108mil.
(2) plantation - can produce around 30mt per ha compare to other plantation operator of 20mt per ha + cpo and pk production keep increasing + stock up strategy to hold the sales volume of cpo in 2016Q1 for better cpo price + cpo price up
(3) forex - as at today, rupiah appreciated vs usd 5.3% from 31 dec 2015. it will turn up with more than rm20mil forex gain.
The IDR has appreciated the most in Asia year-to-date, exceeding our relatively positive expectations for the currency coming into 2016. In a low-growth, low-inflation global environment, the IDR’s attractive FX valuation ‒ at least in nominal terms (Chart 1) ‒ as well as high nominal and real yields have stood out, attracting strong portfolio inflows.
There are other reasons behind the improvement in Indonesia’s balance of payments: First, the current account deficit shrank to 1.9% of GDP in Q3, due to sluggish domestic demand and a smaller services account deficit (Chart 2). The latter reflects both a decline in transportation services costs and rising tourism revenue. While Indonesia’s commodity exports growth remain sluggish, it appears that the worst of the terms-of-trade shock is behind us (Chart 3).
Second, FDI inflows have been on the rise, particularly from Greater China and Singapore, and concentrated in the utility sector (Chart 4). This trend may continue as a result of the government’s recent decision to remove many industries from the ‘negative list’ for FDI. Third, shrinking other investment account outflows seen in the Q3 2015 data suggest that elevated USD-IDR spot and forward points have dampened importers’ FX hedging demand. Furthermore, we note that FX liquidity has improved as a result of policy measures, such as Bank Indonesia’s FX term deposits (Chart 5) and FX bill issuance.
Indonesia continues to display a better fiscal position than most other EM countries. The 2016 fiscal deficit target was set at 2.1%, with a planned increase of expenditure on infrastructure and healthcare. Removal of gasoline subsidies and plans to introduce a tax amnesty bill has given the government room to spend in these areas. Successful sovereign external debt issuance also reduced supply pressure in the local bond market.
Indonesia’s macro policy framework remains on the right track. The key building blocks ‒ prudent monetary policy, a flexible exchange rate and pre-emptive risk management ‒ remain in place. These have enabled a soft landing in the credit cycle ‒ inflation is contained, while IDR liquidity has started to ease since mid-2015, as indicated by falling deposit rates even before policy rate cuts (Chart 6).
These developments facilitated the latest policies to lower government bond yields ‒ giving tax incentives to local pension funds and insurance companies to hold government bonds (Chart 7) and lowering deposits and lending rate ceilings.
BI has become more focused on strengthening FX reserve cover in recent years. Both BI and the government have indicated that the IDR should not strengthen beyond its fundamentals. FX reserves have already started to rise in February (Chart 8). Factoring the positive developments, while bearing in mind the FX policy preference, we change our year-end forecast for USD-IDR from 14,500 to 13,500.
EPS expected to be exceed 30 sen. PE ratio is cheap less than 10 for a plantation/property company. Alliance SDB Research - 2016/32 sen, 2017/34 sen, 2018/36.5 sen based on CPO RM2,000 per ton (to be updated soon :-))
MKH is reported and confirmed to develop some affordable housing in the former Pekeliling Flat area. I wonder that apart from that affordable housing, the whole development will also come with some high value condominium or serviced apartment? How big is MKH's portion of land in that area?
all the survey house dont treat MKH as plantation company. all overlook it. once they noted mkh is a plantation company then will boom.... need more coverage from other bank
EPS expected to be exceed 30 sen. PE ratio is cheap less than 10 for a plantation/property company. Alliance DBS Research - 2016/EPS 32 sen, 2017/EPS 34 sen, 2018/EPS 36.5 sen BUT the assumption on CPO was RM2,000 per ton (CPO market value now - RM2,600)
Public bank is known to be prudent. I find Public bank's retirement fund, a substantial shareholder in MKH, offer lots of comfort to invest in this company.
0335 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesian palm oil production fell 9.6% in February on month while both domestic consumption and exports grew on month, according to data released by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, otherwise known at Gapki. The data shows that in February palm oil production was just 2.7 million metric tons down from 3.0 million metric tons in January. As a result stocks in Indonesia fell to 3.7 million metric tons from 4.4 million metric tons over the same period. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com;Twitter: @lucy_craymer)
Palm oil blended for mandatory B20 biodiesel in Indonesia on track to achieve 3 mil tonnes in 2016. B20 biodiesel absorbed 0.52 million tonnes of palm oil in Jan and Feb this year.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Aero1
1,475 posts
Posted by Aero1 > 2016-03-04 09:36 | Report Abuse
In fact if the one-ff gain is taken out, the profit margin in the property segment has been creeping higher. Good mix of products including with more high rise projects near the MRT/LRT.