The takeover offer of KHSB has been made a week ago and this information is all over the stock market. With the of KHSB at 62 sen on 6th March 2013 and the offer price of 76 sen, there is an upside potential of 23%. Assuming the whole process of completion of sale from KSP to KDEB, the GO takes half a year and complete by September 2013. The annualized profit if one buys KHSB now would be close to 50%! Where can you get this kind of return with literally not much risk involved as detailed below? 1. This deal is announced by state-owned corporation, definitely not a private corporate fraud. 2. It is a damn good deal for the State of Selangor, and hence it doesn’t matter who rules the state as stated by you. 3. Somebody mentioned before that the actual NAB of KHSB is at least worth RM1.00 per share. Why shouldn’t the State Government takes it? 4. Which investor of KHSB doesn’t like to see this deal through as there is a potential of 50% annualized return? I would despite its valuation shows so much higher. A bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush. 5. The book value of 68 sen which is already grossly under stated as somebody mentioned that many of the land it holds haven’t been revalued yet for a long time, is still above this market price of 62 sen by more than 10%. Why the market is not reacting accordingly in this particular case? Where are the arbitrageurs (arbs)? Is the “Election fear” that fearful? Sure, there are risks in all proposed corporate exercises that the proposal may not go through, and if it doesn’t, the share price may drop back to the previous price before the announcement. But looking at the above argument, where is the risk? Why is the gap between the market price and the offer price remains so wide?
lol just closed eyes & buy .... there is no erection fear .... at the moment at least lol .... can't afford to buy her pearls but she's my Uptown girl ... luv you kay ...
i am glad to read what you write. i've been asking myself if i miss something for khsb to stay at 061c, and i read talk of the 'election risk' factor even though this GO is a legal and corporate issue which is more likely to go thru. still, i am curious why people with holding power is not buying this up. again, did i miss something?
i think lotsa people see KHSB saddled with litigation announcements...so might e hesitant...
also if the price keep going up...then would mean KDEB might need to come up new proposal of buyover the shares...or they would abort the plan...meaning massive price drop could follow...i guess most investors would not want that to hapen
What normally happen if this announcement is made in a more mature market say US, the price of KHSB will shoot up immediately from 62 sen to say 70 sen, giving a narrower gap between offer price of 76 sen and share price. The difference being the transaction costs, interest/opportunity cost, plus a risk premium. Because there are many arbitrageurs (arbs) looking for this type of opportunity all the time and hence the efficient movement of share prices. The risk premium is there because there is still this possibility that this deal may not go through eventually. If that happens, the share price will drop back to say 63 sen and if you chase the share price when announcement is made say at 68 sen, you will lose money. The gap will narrow as time goes by to nearer to the completion of the offer as then the uncertainties will be less and the interest cost will be lower as the time is shorter. My argument above that there is really not much "risk" as shown as the reasons I listed above. That is just my opinion and what i hope for (I took some bet on this), it may not be true.
Regarding annualized return,if you buy at 62 sen and eventual the exercise goes through in say half a year, you make 23%, so the full year is 2*23%=46%. This is of course provided the deal completes eventually.
"also if the price keep going up...then would mean KDEB might need to come up new proposal of buyover the shares...or they would abort the plan...meaning massive price drop could follow...i"
self defeating theory u use. If the price keep going up towards 76c, how can you lose in the first place? GO has been announced, BOD and majority sholders have publicly agreed, so you legally cannot just abort the plan, maybe unless the Sultan step in say cannot or massive political maneuvering to stop it, this is a corporate exercise like any other.
"the gap between take over price and current price for unconditional take over offer deal won't be that wide base on previous done deal for the past 5 years."
won't be that wide? we're talking about a 15-20% return currently. got previous deals where the price difference vs TO price just hang there for so many days for to people to accumulate?
KUMPULAN PERANGSANG SELANGOR BERHAD (KPSB or the COMPANY) OFFER FROM KUMPULAN DARUL EHSAN BERHAD (KDEB) TO PURCHASE 254,562,576 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM1.00 EACH, REPRESENTING 56.57% OF THE ISSUED AND PAID-UP SHARE CAPITAL OF KUMPULAN HARTANAH SELANGOR BERHAD (KHSB) HELD BY KPSB (OFFER)
On behalf of the Board of Directors of Perangsang Selangor (“Board”), Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (“Maybank IB”) wishes to announce that the Board, save for YM Raja Haji Idris Raja Kamarudin and Suhaimi Bin Kamaralzaman (collectively referred to as “Interested Directors”), has deliberated on the indicative terms and conditions of the Offer as set out in the Offer Letters and after taking into consideration, inter-alia, the advice of the principal adviser, Maybank IB and the independent adviser appointed to advise the non-interested directors and non-interested shareholders of Perangsang Selangor on the Offer, Crowe Horwath Advisory Sdn Bhd, the Board, save for the Interested Directors, has resolved to accept in principle the indicative terms and conditions of the Offer as set out in the Offer Letters, subject to the final terms and conditions to be negotiated and agreed upon, as well as the execution of a definitive agreement. The Interested Directors have abstained and will continue to abstain from all deliberations and voting at the Board meetings of the Company pertaining to the Offer.
jowong7, you really have put in a lot of valuable input here. Hope you can continue to do so. You must be in the industry. for me I just talk talk only. I really hope you can input on what i express in future, the more critical the better. Seriously, there are a lot of things in investment i don't know one. Regarding your concern about people will "shoot" you. I don't think so because the things you talk about got substance. Not many people are as knowledgeable as you do.
"once upon a time I was falling in love" "now I only falling apart" "there is nothing I can do" "once upon a time there was light in my life" "nows there is only love in the dark" "nothing I can say" "total eclipse of the heart" hehehe lol
"and i need you now tonight" "and i need you more than never" "and If you only hold me tight" "we will be holding on forever" "and we only be making it right" "cause we will never be wrong" huhuhuhuhu
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Yuzuki
1,437 posts
Posted by Yuzuki > 2013-03-06 10:14 | Report Abuse
"sweet dreams are made up of these years"