A surge in Covid-19 cases could also make it harder for central banks in Asia to stick to initial plans of normalization, but force some to keep policy more accommodative for longer. That can add to the risk of capital outflows faced by these countries, given the rising chance that the Federal Reserve could tighten policy sooner amid growing inflation pressure.
All of these headwinds to full recovery in the region could prompt more countries to reconsider the effectiveness of imposing extended lockdowns, and speed up vaccination rollouts, a factor that would allow them to reopen the economy, say economists. Singapore, which plans to ease travel restrictions later this year when it has fully vaccinated about 80% of its population, could be a good case to follow.
“The critical factor is how long and how strictly do governments have to manage movement controls or social distancing to keep the public-health issue at bay,” said Steven Cochrane, chief APAC economist at Moody’s Analytics in Singapore.
Mexican quick-service chain Del Taco Restaurants Inc. told investors late last month that it was trying to manage packaging shortages, which executives said stemmed from U.S. suppliers’ short-handed production plants.
Packaging costs are up 10% compared with last year for chain Noodles & Co., largely because of the raw material resin getting more expensive, Chief Executive Dave Boennighausen said. Power outages in Texas in February triggered chemical plant shutdowns, leading to a continuing shortage of resin and other materials used to make plastics.
Beyond paper bags, McDonald’s recently told restaurants that they would need to limit straw purchases, too. One of the chain’s suppliers in the U.S. is running short because of labor shortfalls, rail disruptions, West Coast wildfires and resin outages, the company said in the message to restaurant owners.
2QFY21 CNP of RM26.2m brought 1HFY21 CNP to RM48.8m, which is above our expectation, at 56% of full-year forecast. 1HFY21 DPS of 2.0 sen is in-line with our estimate. Moving forward, we expect ASPs to remain elevated @ June levels supported by the robust demand for its premium products. As ASPs are falling slower than expected, we raise FY21E CNP by 6%. We also raise FY22E CNP by 6% for newly-planned capacity expansion. Reiterate OUTPERFORM with new TP of RM3.70 (from RM3.38) at 14x PER on FY22E EPS of 26.4 sen.
Outlook. While resin prices have largely remained flat as of late, we believe that ASPs will remain elevated relative to June levels, driven by the strong demand for their premium products. We continue to like TGUAN for: (i) the robust demand for its premium products, and (ii) capacity expansion to continue fuelling long-term growth. We gather from management that TGUAN is currently operating at >80% utilisation rate in order to cater for the strong demand for its stretch film, premium blown film and courier bags. Once lockdowns are lifted and economic activities resume, the construction of its 16-acre (currently c.80% completed) new factory should resume and TGUAN will be able to continue their planned expansion. More importantly, c.95% of TGUAN’s workforce has been fully vaccinated, thus, TGUAN has recently resumed to operating with 100% of its workforce.
Tguan has been overvalued very much. Most investors will take profit as a precaution to anticipate potential collapse of US market soon. I will definitely buy again but not at this price. I will consider only when the price is RM2.10 and below
@auditorandconsultant by the looks of it you probably have sold all your shares that’s why you’re shitting on it, just 6 months ago you were buy calling this company saying how you were personally involved with the company and would be holding it. Guess no one will take your words seriously now. Anyway, the share price won’t drop just because you say it’s overvalued. All analysts are still giving buy calls with TP 3.7. If you have sold then be sure not to cry when it further rallies, just saying.
I have nothing to hide. Please relook my comments back in June 2021. I did tell everyone here that based on my analysis and risk appetite due to
1) US monetary and economic policies with my worry on collapse of US market; 2) Political instability; 3) Failure of the country to control Covid-19 and hence the delay in re-opening Economic activities
I have decided to change from Long Term to Mid Term Trading.
I did sell in June when the price was at RM2.69 and at that time I had already taken profit of return of 25% . At the same time, I did tell people like Pinky, LossAversion and some people here that I switched to Short Term Trading and sold already.
Nothing to hide. Investment and stock trading should not be rigid and strategy should be re-monitored and re-assessed from time to time based on conditions.
FYI, I switched to BAT for short term trading from June - July 2021 and made profit again.
Then in July 2021 I bought again MBSB at 0.585 and sold at 0.645 on 26 August 2021.
Nothing to hide. Now I bought BAT again.
Investment strategy is different does not mean I have made a shit on Tguan.
You do not make me laugh non stop. When Analysts set BUY CALL at TP 3.70 and everyone who trusts them I would say Good Luck to all of you.
Based on my experience dealing with most of the Analyst, I knew how they did their works and not only that, it is also proven by a low profile Investment Guru, Gan Kok Ann on his recent book. You could ask around whoever read his book will know.
To me, Tguan is really a good stock, and for whoever bought lower than current price, then okay. For those chasing high, then it is not really a good investment decision based on my experience.
In short,
Long Term -- you can hold for more than 1-2 years regardless of whether US market is collapse, then go ahead as Tguan is a good counter.
Mid or Short Term -- Entry price is important and you need to monitor and take profit as and when the condition mandate you to do so. because probably your holding power is not strong or you do not want to incur opportunity cost for holding too long.
Definitely, I will buy more again when the price is go back to around RM2 - RM2.10
Disclaimer: This is only my personal opinion and view for sharing purpose. Your investment decision should be done at your own discretion and you yourself should be responsible for your own decision.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
CHONG Kong Hui
1,117 posts
Posted by CHONG Kong Hui > 2021-07-23 15:09 | Report Abuse
Made good profit from TGUAN.
Sold all and switch to BPPLAS for a new view.
Will come back again at the right time.