7.2% dividend yielding @1.38 price is the reason that holding up the price. But when post-gst quater results are out, price will surely fall. When the profits are down, share price will eventually follow. That's abt business.
No drop becos people buy for dividend.REIT also high dividend and "cant drop". High dividend mean company give out the money but not for development thus no much growth like other. Actually padini has grown little by little.
Tsuto, i think they jus wanna spin fear, so that they can accumulate at lower price, park the money there while get dividends and hoping for a rebound/slight capital appreciation. im commenting from a point of view trapped at the 1.80ish level :p
if u think this stock is no good at all by all means sell into oversold territory so that we can accumulate at much a lower price....so pls give more negative comments.... ex div on 3rd June....
The only thing that is keeping this ship afloat is the high dividend yield. For a low growth (may I say declining?) business like Padini, it is worth 10x PE at most. My TP for Padini is RM 1.4X or a minimum 15% downside. Believe it or not, once Padini's dividend is cut in the next financial year, the stock will tank below my TP of RM 1.4X. I wont explain why Padini's dividend will be cut. As a responsible investor, you should do your own diligent.
To the buffett wannabes here, I must say, be careful of what you wish for. I know this post is going to get a lot of sticks. But I am seeing many new investors making newbie mistakes on this stock and I am here to give them some light. I will be back once Padini hits RM 1.4X.
15/10/2014 Flintstones
Update 1
It seems that the share price continue to inch lower towards my TP. Again, dividend investors must consider future dividends than current dividends to compute its prospective dividend yield.
To Benson911, there is no big fish or small fish in the stock market. The only fish exists if water fish.
21/10/2014 Flintstones
I WARNED EVERYBODY HERE TWO MONTHS AGO WHEN PADINI WAS RM 1.90+ AND NOBODY BELIEVED ME. NOW YOUR DIVIDEND ALSO CANNOT YOUR CAPITAL LOSS!!
The share price has tanked again. I know many i3 members have been doing site visiting, posting wonderful pictures of a crowded shop. Let me enlighten all of the naive investors here that you are missing the single most important thing here - PRICE. Did anybody notice Padini's products have not increased in price post GST? That can only mean one thing - Padini is absorbing GST for the sake of market share. When you absorb GST, your bottom line has to suffer. I do not wish to give a number on what Padini's margin will be in the coming quarter. Anyway, good luck again to the dividend investors. God bless you.
To those interested about my new TP for padini, it is RM 1.1X.
Flintstones, you are missing another important thing there - Volumes.
No doubt, the profit margin for Padini is dropped after GST. However, we shouldn't ignore the volume due to the increase of number of retails. It is very obvious that Padini management is changing their focus to Volume base retails rather than higher profit margin base. During the tough time especially after GST, volume base strategy should win the game. Just look at how well Brand Outlets is doing over the pass few years. And not to forget, volume base strategy normally win the malays community and no dispute that Malays are 70% + in Malaysia. To me, no doubt Padini will survive again this round, it just take time to prove to the investor.
Padini does not have brand equity ! people will only buy when there is discounts. no gals will feel proud telling their frens that they are wearing PADINI. obviously, selling in bulk volume is a short term good strategy for the company. they understand that they cannot compete with foreign brands.
Agree gungho92..looks like no discount no crowd, this type of business can survive ah...its going be worse after RAYA. If company don't have business, still can give good dividen meh..
don't forget 10 years ago not so much competition...now is real game they are facing with so many international brand throwing prices too..not easy anymore, don't think future dividen can be that attractive like pass years....good luck everyone.
experting pricing will back to around RM0.80++ months onward...even their last Buy 1Free1 3 days PROMOTION i don't see any big crowd at all in all outlet in northern regions states. nevertheless normal weekdays will be empty most of time. i go survey most outlet most of time coz im still holding some share on hand ><
haha true unclekjoe - Institutional Investors just need to send forth some ANALyst to strike some fear, and some retail investors are running around like chickens who lost their mother. if you really follow IB's buy/sell call blindly, then all the best to you ya!
If they can drop the price and still earning profit , mean they doing well in the market. They know customer WHAT they want , WHAT price they can affordable. If sell 1 pcs RM 99, would you buy? Same lo...you will continue complain no matter WHAT price .
I believe padini will do well because they are opening E-commerce stall to compete with the market and during festive seasons or Promotional periods. you will see people rushing into Padini/brandoutlet and other shops owned by them in every mall. Although there are many oversea brand in the market but you can compare the price and number of customers.
one two free one/ buy one free one does not mean they lose money. it's their strategy. As long as they still earn or get back their cost to rollout for Next Season. Fashion is always changing. no point keeping old stocks.
@smartbeng - please sell all your share if you think will be drop to 0.80++ because if you sell now then buy later at 0.80++ you can make some money now.
Not sure if you still hold the share. If yes, can you share with us why you still hold it?
But the share price 1.3X , if the share price 1.80 - 2.00. Myb still giving 0.025 dividend. since the price now a bit hard lo... if this RAYA, BETUL BETUL KAYA RAYA..
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
davidkkw79
5,068 posts
Posted by davidkkw79 > 2015-05-24 18:52 | Report Abuse
Good management, good dividend... everything just so good...