Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-17 22:42 | Report Abuse

I have been holding for so long and not regret a bit. Look at the chart you will know

Posted by Christine Goh > 2014-03-18 00:43 | Report Abuse

:D

Posted by myoke > 2014-03-18 10:46 | Report Abuse

today also in the uptrend!

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-18 10:48 | Report Abuse

:D

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-18 10:56 | Report Abuse

Another piece of good news for CBIP Indo venture

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/280710-indonesias-2014-biodiesel-consumption-forecast-to-jump-industry.html

Posted by J Loo Siang > 2014-03-18 11:32 | Report Abuse

http://www.cbip.com.my/main/pdf/post-fourth-quater-2013-results-update.pdf

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-18 11:36 | Report Abuse

Damn good work, Loo Siang, Thx
Going forward, plantations will start contributing more and more, big revenue and profit stream.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-18 12:26 | Report Abuse

Today year high, but its gonna keep breaking up higher and higher

Posted by danchong > 2014-03-18 13:04 | Report Abuse

Fb2, I always feel that this counter will only mature in 2017. Accumulated too little!

Posted by Jye2010 > 2014-03-18 13:42 | Report Abuse

Best stock in my portfolio so far :)

Posted by garfield282004 > 2014-03-18 13:54 | Report Abuse

Truely good for long term investment :)
happy trading!!

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-18 14:00 | Report Abuse

Best stock for a long time to come going forward.
DC, I think next year, their plantation will start contributing, and will become a bigger and bigger contributor. Read the Q report given by Loo Siang.
The price will get pricer from now.

Posted by raytheclay > 2014-03-18 20:27 | Report Abuse

Agree with Firebird2. Everyday it's reaching a new high. Analysts are re-rating this counter and setting higher price target. My wish list for this counter - 1) RM6 target, 2) higher dividends or distribution of treasury shares, 3) bonus issue.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-18 20:55 | Report Abuse

Ray, my take, all 3 are possibilities, CBIP do care about shareholders like you and me

Posted by lucifer > 2014-03-19 17:57 | Report Abuse

Elvis finds a comfy couch and continue to stay inside the building.

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-20 09:04 | Report Abuse

Besides its impressive growth over the last 5 years of >10% (Engineering and SPV divisions), CBIP also has in its associates (their effective ownership - 7000ha planted with palm oil) & also their land bank of 76,500 ha in Kalimantan (included recent negotiation of 11,500ha) where 6000ha is planted. This is the size of what TSH Resources has in Indo. And they also hope to plant 6000ha per annum. At market cap of RM1.1b now + PLANTATION (very long term) - with that size, easily worth RM2.8b in 10 years time. But, who can invest for so long? Well it the price tripled in 3 years, about CAGR of 11.5% p.a. + dividend say 3% = 14.5% Hope the price does not goes up so much.

Posted by trinitynoob > 2014-03-20 13:05 | Report Abuse

Hi guys!

CBIP is an awesome share but is it in the money now?

What goes up can it stay up?

=)

Noob

Posted by myoke > 2014-03-24 16:07 | Report Abuse

Woohoo, new high today

Posted by J Loo Siang > 2014-03-24 18:42 | Report Abuse

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1573633

Posted by fortunebullz > 2014-03-24 18:43 | Report Abuse

This is rm1 profit margin that I miss!

Posted by mcqueen > 2014-03-25 12:24 | Report Abuse

Cbip万岁…………go ahead....

Posted by 1901 > 2014-03-25 13:33 | Report Abuse

rhb up tp to 5.0

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-25 19:03 | Report Abuse

sosfinance, TSH has roughly the same plantation size?
Looking at CBIP q4 report here, really make me feel this counter is going big time, very soon.
Currently business already good, and their associates (plantation JV) already contributing.
Next year will have their 100% own Indonesian plantation contributing and going to be bigger and bigger, as hugh as some plantation big boys, wonder if the size of those big boys plantations is about the same as CBIP, then it should have big numbers on the Rev and Profits too.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-26 08:44 | Report Abuse

1901, do you have the link to RHB research?
TP 5.00 could be reached this week.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-26 08:51 | Report Abuse

Sorry, my post on 25/3 19:03 should read, "Current business ......" meaning the Modipalm engineering and SPV.

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-26 10:37 | Report Abuse

1. Only 6,000ha was planted out of the 76,500 ha available (net plantable area is about 70%, due to plasma). You will have to wait for another 3 years before harvesting starts.

2. Yes, for the associates, was informed that its effective ownership is about 6000ha, still young and can be harvested.

3. Land size wise, TSH and CBIP is similar, but, TSH has stated planting at least 4-5 years ago.

4. Plantation in Kalimantan has different dynamics compared with Malaysia due to the tax structure (VAT @ 15%). Of course the land cost is a few times cheaper. Not forgetting, in Indo, they have to plant for the plasma (i.e. the native).

5. The impact from their own plantation can only be seen in next 3-4 years. So we have to wait and see what type of CPO price then. It is no doubt it is a long term investment.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-26 11:00 | Report Abuse

Thx sosfinance, will revert to you again soon.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-26 11:29 | Report Abuse

Earnings profile of CBIP 2013

1.Modipalm Engineering Rm81.5m, mgmt. has indicated that orders received are 26% higher and will be reflected in the coming FY, new customers have increased higher, means new markets

2.SPV Rm41.1m, solid orders are still received.

3.Plantations JV, Rm9.8m, on a 7000ha area

4.Wholly owned Indo Plantations, -Rm4.7m, 69,000ha, plus nego on another 19,000ha, started planting last year, total size as big as TSH, this earning stream comes big in est 2017, Rm3b or ^ asset? KLK? BKawan?

5. OnG ? Heard some news? somethings coming

Thx sosfinance

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-26 11:57 | Report Abuse

Sorry, "Profits profile of CBIP 2013."

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-26 15:16 | Report Abuse

1. The first 6000 ha planted in 2013 in Indo will provide a low yield in 2017 (just started for harvesting), and will break-even or result in small loss (meanwhile cost of planting will be incurred during 2013 to 2017). Another 6000 ha will come it in 2018. A 5000ha mature plantation with yield of 28ton per ha in Sabah is worth about RM300m.

2. In indonesia, it will be about a discount of 25% on the value of plantation due to VAT and leasehold land (for the mature plantation). Hence, it takes a while to realise its value.

3. Until its fully planted, it will take a long while.

4. However, the existing business is UNDERVALUED due to potential growth and high ROE (>15%).

5. So the Indo plantation part may bring down the EPS due to planting cost for the first 4 years. Imagine a planting cost to maturity of RM16,000 per ha, 6,000 ha require RM96 million (amortised over 25 yrs). If it is 60,000 ha, you will need RM96m x 10yrs = RM960mil, you will need capital funding.

6. EPS for next few years will be effected by the amortisation of the biological assets. Analyst won't look at it until it can produce substantial production like 200,000 tons or more.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-26 15:30 | Report Abuse

sosfinance, may I ask what is the current valuation of a hectare of oil palm cultivated prime land there at the moment? rm30k ?
Thx

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-26 18:16 | Report Abuse

GENERAL
Sabah, mature, high yield = RM70-75,000/ha. (Indonesia is much lower due to VAT, when they buy land they allocate 30% for plasma/native). So, every stage is different, like year 0-4 (no harvest), planting cost to maturity may ranges RM13,000 to RM15,000 per ha. So you cost of land and cost incurred to year 4, for indonesia, minimum RM16,000 per ha (exclude financing cost).

CBIP
CBIP - via Associate has effectively say 6000ha (in Sarawak). If all mature, general calculation - 6000ha x RM60,000 per ha = RM360m

CBIP - direct (just planted) 6000ha - no yield. Land cost plus say year one planting cost RM1000/ha + RM5000/ha = RM6,000/ha. I will only sell it if someone willing to pay RM10,000 per ha x 6000 = RM60m. (next 2-4yrs, additional planting cost).

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-26 19:12 | Report Abuse

Generally, I think it will be worth billions in what they are holding, how many billions, I wont know as there is a time factor and the maturity of the plants.
Looking at 69,000 ha, and maybe negotiating for more, without even considering their associates in Sarawak, I think the pieces of land now is itself worth quite a hugh sum, plus if through the years they have planted on it each year 6000 ha.

Taking into account the discount because the land is in Kalimantan, and the VAT and planting cost, even if we take the value as Rm35k per ha, total value CBIP could be holding on to 35k x 69 = Rm2.4b. Just a rough estimate here.

Posted by chinesetea > 2014-03-26 19:19 | Report Abuse

The land they own is gold. The government has started to control the sales land to reduce deforesation. Other plantation stock's trees have become matured and getting old and the winner will be those with young trees and land to grow new trees like CBIP and MKH.
One CBIP can take you to retire.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-26 19:22 | Report Abuse

Chinesetea, CBIP did gave me good returns as I have invested early. I think there will be more coming. Hope you are thinking along the same line too. I do see the revenue and profits taking a hugh jump some years down the road, as this is major.

Posted by chinesetea > 2014-03-26 19:38 | Report Abuse

yes, have been holding this baby since RM2 two years ago. Boring at the beginning and getting more exciting in recent months. I also like the fact they have diversified to deliver vehicle and palm oil processing machine for other company. I believe it will gradually transform into Oil (Biodiesel) counter to produce end to end product as they have purchased an oil and gas company recently.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-26 19:47 | Report Abuse

Hope you can keep it long, and I hope more good news are coming. Dividends are reasonably well, so its worth to hold on to it. The price will increase

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-27 17:47 | Report Abuse

If you ask the IR the net plantable area most will tell you that using a rule of thumb 70% for Kalimantan is reasonable. So, for the land that they purchase, follow this rule (there is VAT, there is also plasma land).

Don't forget, the first 4 years, there is no harvesting/revenue, one has to put in another RM15,000 per ha before it can harvest. So, to plant 10,000 ha, you need RM150m, to plant say net plantable 50,000ha, you need RM750m. It is not a bed of roses during the first 4-5 years, lots of amortisation of biological assets, depreciation for mills, finance costs, etc. Yes, it does worth RM2-3bil when all trees mature.

So, to plant 50,000 ha at 6000 ha per annum, you need about 9 years. Depending on the cost of planting (may increase) and the price of CPO then. It is very long term game.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-28 12:23 | Report Abuse

This company has low PE right now due to its existing business and will grow to become a few billion company in the years ahead

Posted by Jacky Yip > 2014-03-31 00:30 | Report Abuse

what is target price for this counter?

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-31 08:57 | Report Abuse

Its timely to take positions now as market has yet to factor in its plantations business but once it does, the price will run up very fast. Based on just its existing business, think we can look at Rm6.00 since it has taken in an extra 26% more orders for this FY, and still possible to have single digit PE.

Posted by Alex Chong > 2014-03-31 10:07 | Report Abuse

The main business itself make good profit. Plantation is a value added bonus. The combination of this 2 sectors for CBIP sound like 1+1=3. Happy investing.

Posted by heyhaha1 > 2014-03-31 13:48 | Report Abuse

not,is 1+1bigger than three

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-31 14:09 | Report Abuse

1+1 = Modipalm engineering+SPV
Others = Plantations, OnG?

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-04-02 14:04 | Report Abuse

If we separate CBIP into 2 core business, one will be the existing the mill construction & SPV and the second one will be the their own plantation in Kalimantan (which is slowly taking shape). Their existing sector already worth easily RM6 per share due to its double digit growth and strong expansion into new products.

As for their own plantation in Kalimantan, at this juncture, until it bear fruits, we can only value for its cost of development/biological assets. It is like a machine/asset that can only produce its product in the forth year. So, it is anyone guess at the moment what is the cost of production and price of CPO in four years time. Knowing that they are moving towards the upstream business, it is an indication that the Group is ready to add in a new line of profitable business.

Conclusion
My view is that the existing business (engineering & SPV) is already worth about RM6.00, so this stock is undervalued.

As for the second core business, one have to consider its associated company (started harvesting) and its planting program of 6000 ha each year. This part is very subjective, but certainly have value attached to it as land in Kalimantan is getting scarce for plantation. The price for good land will definitely increase.

I understand, once the land is fully planted and reached 4 years old, the value of the planted area can easily fetch 2 times the initial cost.

Posted by hentaiboy > 2014-04-02 21:53 | Report Abuse

typical rebouncing at yesterday's Doji ?

Posted by regnig > 2014-04-03 11:09 | Report Abuse

I let go at 4.57, enough profit for me..

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-04-03 15:52 | Report Abuse

Excellent for CBIP.

http://www.palmoilhq.com/PalmOilNews/palm-oil-prices-to-hit-3000ton-by-june-may-reach-3500ton-on-el-nino-mistry/

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-04-04 16:47 | Report Abuse

1. CPO price at the moment has not much effect on CBIP. They only hold an associated company with about 6000ha of plantation.

2. They just started planting 6000ha in Kalimantan last year. Long way to go, at least 4 years to see any CPO produced.

3. However, due to expansion of plantations in Malaysia and Indonesia, they biz, engineering or construction of mills will benefits. They have double digits growth in this segment.

4. Their SPV is also expanding into new products and wider customer base.

5. This is not a CPO price driven stock, perhaps, 5-8 years from now, then we can see something more significant. Meanwhile, the engineering and SPV segment are growing double digits. If they can achieve a LT growth of 10%, TP should be around RM6.00

Posted by nsk82 > 2014-04-07 18:33 | Report Abuse

wooohoo, rm38 m palm mill contract from SIME DARBY

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1588045