More project is coming. Only Papua New guinea alone has more n more potential projects. Bewani project(owned by prospers group) already ordered 1 n will 2 or 3 more in the next few years. Rimbunan Hijau(PNG) group already ordered 1 n may order 1 more in next few years. Samling Gleneady's subsidiary sure need 1 mill in 2015 n cbip should be likely got the tender. Sepik oil palm project(will be developed by wilmar international) although still in planning stage, but look at the size of project, will needs at least 3 to 4 mills. Don't forget kulim's new Britain palm oil.
looks like a lot of projects waiting for cbip. i am thinking to accumulate cbip-wa upon the listing. higher potential for move up faster compare to mother share.
waiting for announcement. before buy in warrant, we have to know the warrant's exercise price. according to the press, cbip plan to fund 255,700,000 from the exercise of 90,669,491 units of warrant. that mean the exercise price will be 2.82. at current price of 4.92, after bonus 1:1, cbip share price will be adjusted to 2.46. if the premium of warrant is 40%, that mean (2.46 X 1.4) - 2.82 = 0.62, warrant price will be around 62sen upon listing. so buy in if price below 62sen.
This is a sleepy boring stock for those who have lots of patience. At current price it is fairly valued. Future catalyst will come from its plantation business but the plantation business will require significant capital expenditure in current and future years. That's the main reason for the BONUS ISSUE CUM WARRANTS EXERCISE. For that I would congratulate the controlling shareholders for their long term foresight.
I really doubt that the Investment Reports had really forecasted its future business potential in 5 years time. Who will be interested to invest in this stock? Most likely the VALUE INVESTORS who sees VALUE( that means future $$$$$$$$$$ vs short term $$$$$$$$$$) who have lots of patience and can wait minimum 5 years if they are still in good health to enjoy their wins!!!
Moreover Jim Rogers the noted and most celebrated Commodity Guru had forecasted that the commodity super cycle will end by 2018- 2020 which is another max six years away. Can any investor in i3 forum here forecast the CPO price in 6 years?
This is a good company but do remember the bursa index already sky high and Current global market down trend esp US market, my advises to sell out and hold cash again
Exactly right adrianzeus! Best time to nimble and accumulate when market is fearful. Tomorrow's EGM should provide some fresh leads on the company and it's direction.
Congrats to those that managed to buy on the recent dip.......paliainvestor>>> definitely worth buying...was surprised that the exercise price is so low....
RM4.80 appears to the next resistance level. Once this is broken, we should be heading towards the RM5.00 + territory. Considering one of the directors is intending to trade their shares (based on Bursa's announcement), I believe we should be seeing the RM5.00 + level before 4 Nov ex-date.
Thanks Alex Chong - 4 Nov is the entitlement date when we will have our free warrants and bonus shares. Adrianzeus - Positive momentum seen today as we approach ex date. I will not be surprised if it touches and go beyond RM5.00 tomorrow. Question is whether it will surpass the year high of RM5.15 before ex date?
Now every investor in CBIP is so happy and gung-ho on the latest corporate offerings which need not be said now. The business of CBIP can be considered as fair valued at this current price. However the investment in palm oil cultivation may be a good investment if one's view is CPO price will continue to appreciate in 5 to 7 years time. However in investment risk management one should also consider the "WHAT IF SCENARIO" and the "what if scenario" is "what will be the valuation of CBIP assuming that all hectares have being planted and CPO prices hit a new low 5 to 6 years from now? Have you investors considered this "WHAT IF SCENARIO" in view of the fact that commodity prices had already down trended and there is a real possibility that the secular commodity prices will continue to downtrend further in the future years?
There is a saying..."A FOOL AND HIS MONEY SHALL SOON BE PARTED". Better pray and hope that this will not be the case for CBIP in 5 to 7 years down the road. If GOD does not answer to your prayers then it's a bit late. My take is when a CPO equipment supplier gets into the game of becoming a medium oil palm plantation company at this late stage it is better to tread on the side on caution rather than be extremely ebullient as this may potentially signify the beginning of a new secular bear cycle for CPO which will LAST YEARS.
bonus share and warrant will be listed on 12 Nov. if CBIP share price hit 5.00 and after ex, the price will be adjusted to 2.50. warrant exercise price is 2.4o, with premium 60%, the warrant worth 1.60 (2.50 X 1.6 - 2.40).
After bonus and warrants..... Will be like hupseng coz dilution of earnings and earnings and warrant is asking for more monies..... Like hupseng previously dearly sought after even exceed RM 8.00 but now look pathetic!
With US shale oil at very low production cost of 14.50 per barrel, I m real doubtful about oil and vegetable oil future in future years ! OPEC will be in direct confrontation with US coz US can withstand a lower price for oil unlike other oil producing countries, including Malaysia will b hard hit if the price is going south instead if north.....the future for oils is bleak!
T - 1. Will we see RM5-00 tomorrow ? Some recent positive news flow on CPO price although as I mentioned previously this is not a pure plantation play; or at least not for the next 3-5 years. Commodity price (CPO, crude oil, etc) will always be volatile and cyclical in nature but the engineering and equipment business should provide some earnings certainty over the next few years.
Gearing (share price/warrant price) looks reasonable at the current warrant price level. I would start selling the warrants and start accumulating the mother share on price weakness.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
coralsea
18 posts
Posted by coralsea > 2014-09-19 22:49 | Report Abuse
More project is coming.
Only Papua New guinea alone has more n more potential projects.
Bewani project(owned by prospers group) already ordered 1 n will 2 or 3 more in the next few years.
Rimbunan Hijau(PNG) group already ordered 1 n may order 1 more in next few years.
Samling Gleneady's subsidiary sure need 1 mill in 2015 n cbip should be likely got the tender.
Sepik oil palm project(will be developed by wilmar international) although still in planning stage, but look at the size of project, will needs at least 3 to 4 mills.
Don't forget kulim's new Britain palm oil.