Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-27 21:32 | Report Abuse

Yeah ... true. But they still in profit unlike Harta, PBT is a loss. And Harta has more outstanding shares than Kossan. My argument has always been Kossan shld be more or same with Harta price. So either Kossan go up or Harta comes down to meet Kossan's price.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-27 22:14 | Report Abuse

2 challenging factors still looms in gloves ... ASP and demand. And this directly affects PBT.
I see one factor is improving and that is DEMAND (Revenue increase for Kossan and Harta). China can't keep undercutting price. It affects their PBT too. China's lockdown is over. China lost their scale of production advantage by selling cheap. Their China demand has drastically dropped. Intco Medical made OPERATING losses in 2022 (-30,467) and 2023 (-100,958). They have to increase price in 2024. ASP will improve.

Biggest bomb on China for ASP is China-US rivalry. Now just rely on entry-port ban by US on China's gloves. IF Trump wins the tariff effect will be even greater than the 2026 tariff increase.

China use coal. Msia use nat gas. Both energy sources are going up in tandem. So not much difference there. Hell, if US wants to penalize China on ESG basis for using coal ... total ban on China's gloves. But we know that cannot happen la.

So people who said "Don’t blame tax. Just look at PBT" are just short term investors. I'm in for the long haul.

Posted by ChandranG > 2024-05-28 15:05 | Report Abuse

ABRDN started to dispose the shares continuously ...

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-28 17:58 | Report Abuse

ABRDN bought when EPF was selling. I think their average price is below Rm1.50. So to take profit is normal.

ChandranG

ABRDN started to dispose the shares continuously ...

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-28 18:00 | Report Abuse

What happened to gloves in Msia will also happen in China. After China lockdown is over.
1) China gloves start making losses.
(Intco Medical made OPERATING losses in 2022 (-30,467) and 2023 (-100,958).)
2) China small gloves players got eliminated.
3) Big China gloves start rationalize (reduce) their production hence impairment losses.
4) They start selling at higher ASP.

As for the article from Edge https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/712277
"Hong Leong Investment Bank Research (HLIB Research), which is neutral on the sector, shares the sentiment, commenting that Chinese players will start to gradually increase their presence in European and Asian markets to reduce US orders."

Are they saying China gloves are not already in European and Asia market now and the years before covid ? Of course they are. In order to compete is only to reduce price and gain market share in Europe and Asia. China cannot afford to do that. They are already making losses. China has no choice but REDUCE PRODUCTION because CHINA LOCKDOWN IS OVER.

Problem with analysts on China is ... China production is BIG. Look at this data from World Bank 2019
Malaysia Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 742,626,000 Kg
Thailand Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 109,800,000 Kg
China Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 73,646,800 Kg

China is only 9.9% of Malaysia production.
------
DATA on US import of gloves in 2019
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 World 410,269,000 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 Malaysia 258,422,000 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 Thailand 68,443,400 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 China 44,971,200 Kg

Malaysia covers 63% of US import. China only 10.9%.
------

COVID presented a different situation. US allow lower quality glove from China to satisfy the demand during COVID. But the OVERSUPPLY is coming mainly from Malaysia. So the ASP problem is OVERSUPPLY WORLDWIDE. But demand is slowly recovering (Kossan and Harta revenue is increasing) as oversupply depletes.

If there's concern about "flooding" the market with gloves, we should look at Topgloves instead. They are the biggest producer in the world. Not China. And TopGLove is losing money and their demand is far from their 2019 demand. They won't be flooding anytime soon.

My bet is on Kossan and Harta. Their export to US will be advantageous to them when tariff hit.

Posted by mf > 2024-05-29 01:52 | Report Abuse

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average

38,796.13

-273.46

0.69%

Posted by KimSua > 2024-05-29 19:22 | Report Abuse

No concern on the glove fundamentals. Better to wait for a clear uptrend tmrow or fri

Posted by Lukey_Greek > 2024-05-29 20:51 | Report Abuse

When the price is right, even owner of the company & ABRDN will also dispose their shares. Good luck long term investor.

Posted by Lukey_Greek > 2024-05-29 20:58 | Report Abuse

Long way to learn on understanding this wave fr FA perspective.

Posted by Why_ > 2024-05-29 22:29 | Report Abuse

Lim Kuang Wang buying not TS Lim Kuang Sia?

Posted by Why_ > 2024-05-29 22:29 | Report Abuse

2024-05-29

Insider

MR LIM KUANG WANG (a substantial shareholder) acquired 100,000 shares on 28-May-2024.

2024-05-29

Insider

MR LIM KUANG WANG (a substantial shareholder) acquired 250,000 shares on 27-May-2024.

Posted by mf > 2024-05-29 22:41 | Report Abuse

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average

38,534.16

-318.70

0.82%

Nasdaq

NASDAQ Composite

16,976.85

-43.02

0.25%

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-30 02:47 | Report Abuse

ARBDN still owns 137,392,700 shares. They sold 291,400 + 251,400 = 542,800..... 0.395% of the total shares.
It's the same with TS Lim Kuang Sia and other owners .... Like I said they are doing some profit taking like day traders. Which is ok. Value traders or FA can do the same too.

Just that TS Lim Kuang Sia is the CEO of the company. Show some confidence of the company la. He represents the company. Don't be a pariah CEO. THis kind of profit also want to take when he is already a billionaire. 🙄

Sometimes FA hold bcoz they are long term. Just bcoz they are long doesn't mean they didn't prone a bit to take profit. IT all depends on how many share you hold and risk management. Market is jittery bcoz US is already at all time high. IS it gonna crash or just 5% correction ... nobody knows.


Lukey_Greek

When the price is right, even owner of the company & ABRDN will also dispose their shares. Good luck long term investor. Long way to learn on understanding this wave fr FA perspective.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-30 02:55 | Report Abuse

Last time b4 2008/2009 .... when US market down, other markets can be up. It's like investors leaving one market and move to another. NOW all markets are following US market. THeir consequence affect other markets too fearing another Financial Crisis.

Posted by 5354_ > 2024-05-30 05:32 | Report Abuse

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/712277

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-30 08:37 | Report Abuse

YEah @5354_ I answered

Repost:

What happened to gloves in Msia will also happen in China. After China lockdown is over.
1) China gloves start making losses.
(Intco Medical made OPERATING losses in 2022 (-30,467) and 2023 (-100,958).)
2) China small gloves players got eliminated.
3) Big China gloves start rationalize (reduce) their production hence impairment losses.
4) They start selling at higher ASP.

As for the article from Edge https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/712277
"Hong Leong Investment Bank Research (HLIB Research), which is neutral on the sector, shares the sentiment, commenting that Chinese players will start to gradually increase their presence in European and Asian markets to reduce US orders."

Are they saying China gloves are not already in European and Asia market now and the years before covid ? Of course they are. In order to compete is only to reduce price and gain market share in Europe and Asia. China cannot afford to do that. They are already making losses. China has no choice but REDUCE PRODUCTION because CHINA LOCKDOWN IS OVER.

Problem with analysts on China is ... China production is BIG. Look at this data from World Bank 2019
Malaysia Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 742,626,000 Kg
Thailand Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 109,800,000 Kg
China Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 73,646,800 Kg

China is only 9.9% of Malaysia production.
------
DATA on US import of gloves in 2019
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 World 410,269,000 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 Malaysia 258,422,000 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 Thailand 68,443,400 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 China 44,971,200 Kg

Malaysia covers 63% of US import. China only 10.9%.
------

COVID presented a different situation. US allow lower quality glove from China to satisfy the demand during COVID. But the OVERSUPPLY is coming mainly from Malaysia. So the ASP problem is OVERSUPPLY WORLDWIDE. But demand is slowly recovering (Kossan and Harta revenue is increasing) as oversupply depletes.

If there's concern about "flooding" the market with gloves, we should look at Topgloves instead. They are the biggest producer in the world. Not China. And TopGLove is losing money and their demand is far from their 2019 demand. They won't be flooding anytime soon.

My bet is on Kossan and Harta. Their export to US will be advantageous to them when tariff hit.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-30 08:45 | Report Abuse

So who is going to Kossan AGM today?

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-31 06:36 | Report Abuse

Trump got convicted. But he can still run for president.
Democrats just hammer in their final nail to their coffin.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/30/can-trump-still-be-president-00160433

Posted by KimSua > 2024-06-01 13:53 | Report Abuse

The US Cpe inflation is within expectation and Ecb most likely to cut rate in June. Tuesday will be a good time to bottom pick. Good luck

Posted by Chipee > 2024-06-05 09:20 | Report Abuse

ARBDN is back :)

Posted by Chipee > 2024-06-05 15:17 | Report Abuse

Demand is more than Supply. Price should go up.
Best Buy 24010 / 152
Best Sell 4002 / 62

Posted by xiaoeh > 2024-06-05 15:40 | Report Abuse

Chipee
other than Kossan
do u buy other glove counters as well?

Posted by Chipee > 2024-06-05 17:07 | Report Abuse

No. I'm only invested in Kossan. But Harta forum is more active... so I kepoh there. 😅
To me Kossan should catch up with Harta in price.

Posted by xiaoeh > 2024-06-05 18:25 | Report Abuse

so do i....
i mean kepo...😂

Posted by Chipee > 2024-06-05 18:54 | Report Abuse

😂😂😂

xiaoeh

so do i....
i mean kepo...😂

Posted by ChandranG > 2024-06-05 21:37 | Report Abuse

ARBDN is coming back and buying in Kossan 😀

Posted by yifenglim1803 > 2024-06-06 13:00 | Report Abuse

Kossan is back

Posted by Iamnotasifu > 2024-06-06 18:14 | Report Abuse

Kossan should at least catch up Harta Price , such underrated with highest Cash on hand and highest PAT among the Big 4

Posted by KimSua > 2024-06-08 16:25 | Report Abuse

Money is coming back in to klse. Better sharpen your technicals. Fundamentals will take a back seat, swing it well and good luck

Posted by ChandranG > 2024-06-10 11:11 | Report Abuse

1 ringgit more to go for Kossan to catch up Harta, Iamnotasifu 😄

Posted by Chipee > 2024-06-10 11:22 | Report Abuse

Yeah. I was waiting for this. Foreign funds coming in would be a good opportunity to trim down.
Higher lows make it hard to swing trade on this. Unless there big news on gloves. I think next lookout is TopGlove results.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-06-10 15:06 | Report Abuse

I made a quick calculation on the data of Kossan selling at $16 per 1000 gloves. Info from here:
https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/03/1031853/kossan-rubbers-sales-may-remain-stagnant-first-half-2024-says#:~:text=The%20firm%20added%20that%20Kossan,FY23%20to%20enhance%20operating%20margins.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-06-10 15:23 | Report Abuse

I made a quick calculation on the data of Kossan selling at $16 per 1000 gloves.

Q1 2024:
Revenue = Rm 451,625,000 = $96,090,425 (at 4.7 xchange rate)
Gloves sold per 1000 unit = $96,090,425/$16 = 6,005,652

Conclusion on SPECULATION:
Kossan can sell at $17.20. China is selling at $16 too but there's a 7.5% tariff which equals to $17.20.
Meaning Kossan could had make:-
Revenue: 6,005,652 x $17.20 = $103,297,207 x 4.7 = Rm485,496,875
Extra profit at same cost: Rm485,496,875 - Rm 451,625,000 = Rm33,871,875

As ASP improve, Kossan can sell at higher price. Harta's ASP is $21. So Kossan has much room to move up.
Just by taking ASP of $18, Kossan can easily make extra Rm56.5 million.
Rm56.5 million + Rm22.2million (Q1 24 PBT) = Rm78.7million.
Which is similar to 2019 quarterly earning.

On Utilization Rate.
Also, 6,005,652,000 per quarter means 24 billion per year. Kossan annual capacity is 32 billion in 2019.
24/32 = 75% utilization rate. This number could be lower if follows 2024 annual capacity but I don't have the number.

I see improvement. I'm holding and hope to see better Q2 results as ASP is stabilizing.

Posted by KimSua > 2024-06-11 12:40 | Report Abuse

Great insight. Need confirmation of their operation efficiency and with utilzation improving to above 80%. KOSSAN should surpass Harta soon.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-06-11 19:19 | Report Abuse

@KimSua you can read Kossan automation here from The Edge:
https://kossan.com.my/media/pdf/2021/MediaCoverage-TheEdgeDigitalEdge-KossanDigitalTransformation_20210329.pdf

Posted by ChandranG > 2024-06-12 16:36 | Report Abuse

Kenanga continue to short gloves 😑

https://www.enanyang.my/%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F%E6%96%B0%E9%97%BB/%E8%A6%81%E4%B9%88%E4%BA%8F%E9%92%B1%E8%A6%81%E4%B9%88%E8%B5%9A%E5%B0%91-%E6%89%8B%E5%A5%97%E8%82%A1%E4%BB%8D%E9%81%AD%E6%B3%BC%E5%86%B7%E6%B0%B4

Posted by KimSua > 2024-06-13 19:21 | Report Abuse

Chipee thanks for the information. We know each quarter results will be better than the last for at least end of the year and next year US will start transition their supplier away from China.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-06-13 20:39 | Report Abuse

KimSua, Welcome. Lets Huat Ah!!!!

Posted by KimSua > 2024-06-14 11:26 | Report Abuse

Cup and handle forming, high chance for a breakout next week to test recent high. The cup depth is small and handle volume is small as well. Let's see how, good luck

Posted by paperplane > 2024-06-18 11:36 | Report Abuse

UOB latest report TP- Harta 3.92, Kossan 2.73, TopGlov- 1.28

Posted by KimSua > 2024-06-19 07:29 | Report Abuse

Quad witching hour this friday. Trade with care, expect high volume surge and violatility due to options expiry.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-06-19 13:36 | Report Abuse

Top Glove spectacular result. Finally profitable. ASP is improving.

Posted by ChandranG > 2024-06-19 14:58 | Report Abuse

Sell on good news today?

Posted by ChandranG > 2024-06-19 14:58 | Report Abuse

Sell on good news today?

Posted by Chipee > 2024-06-19 15:44 | Report Abuse

Now I'm observing 28 June. USTR is collecting opinions from their industry players on the tariff hike. I'm hoping they want it to be earlier than 2026. Old and bigger players may want to kill their small/new players in US. These new players has been "disturbing" their profit using China's gloves. We'll see. Can only hope.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-06-19 15:51 | Report Abuse

Let the data sink in for them. We will see the next week. As Kimsua highlighted, options expiring.

ChandranG

Sell on good news today?

Posted by Lukey_Greek > 2024-06-19 20:13 | Report Abuse

In the AGM, Mr Lim mentioned that the worst was over, however the recovery is more like a L shape, instead of V. Utilisation rate was about 60% only for Apr & May.

Posted by Lukey_Greek > 2024-06-19 20:28 | Report Abuse

The boost of USA tariff of 25% in 2026 will only have temporary effect, as China will gain more market share in Europe. The supply & demand will be rebalanced as a whole. The ASP will more or less back to 2025 level after that.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-06-19 23:30 | Report Abuse

If you have not seen the news, RIGHT parties are winning in Europe. We will see the result in UK and France election results next month. If they take over the governments, rest assure more tariff on China. I doubt China can take over Europe market.

Posted by Mini2021 > 2024-06-20 10:03 | Report Abuse

TP 3 by year end