Posted by Chipee > 2024-06-20 13:39 | Report Abuse

Anwar announce to join BRICS, KLSE just sold off. Could it be the reason?

Posted by Albukhary > 2024-06-21 14:16 | Report Abuse

When Kossan new HQ will be officially launch?
Everyday I passed by it, such a nice building, very ESG style of building, especially if you compare it to Top Glove Tower.

Posted by Mini2021 > 2024-06-23 07:26 | Report Abuse

Another 30 days.... Kossan Result.... Another 40 days Harta Result

Posted by ChandranG > 2024-06-24 18:22 | Report Abuse

Typically it will release its Q2 result by end of July

Posted by ChandranG > 2024-06-28 17:31 | Report Abuse

Another rally for glove counters ?

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/cdc-data-shows-covid-19-cases-rising-in-majority-of-us-states/articleshow/111319633.cms

Posted by Iamnotasifu > 2024-06-29 17:38 | Report Abuse

Kossan Nice Chart, challenging RM3 next week?

Posted by Albukhary > 2024-06-30 21:19 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow is the 1st day of 2nd half year.
Wish everyone Heng Ong Huat.
Wish KLCI break 1700 by end of the year.
Wish FBMSMCAP break 23,000 by end of the year.

Posted by ChandranG > 2024-07-02 15:56 | Report Abuse

A bit hard, Iamnotasifu. Let's wait another good news for gloves then

Posted by Chipee > 2024-07-03 10:30 | Report Abuse

American Hospitals Association wrote a letter to USTR to reconsider the tariff on medical products from China. This part of the letter:
"The AHA urged the USTR to only impose tariffs if it demonstrates sufficient manufacturing capacity outside of China to make choices among manufacturers a credible option. "

Gloves are easily available outside China. .. as in Malaysia. :)
So if USTR may reduce the tariff on other medical products from China, will USTR apply 25% tariff on China's gloves as early as 2025? Knowing US need to collect tax to pay their debt and reduce their fiscal deficit.

Posted by Iamnotasifu > 2024-07-04 19:07 | Report Abuse

easy 6% today, tomorrow another 20%?

Posted by ChandranG > 2024-07-09 10:02 | Report Abuse

EPF sold Kossan ; bought CTOS

Posted by zzprozaz > 2024-07-10 08:39 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by speakup > 2024-07-10 08:49 | Report Abuse

10minit casino buka!

Posted by Chipee > 2024-07-10 16:03 | Report Abuse

If Kossan release Q1 in 21 May 2024, then the Q2 result will be out 21 August. I don't why they keep moving their release date. It's very annoying.

Posted by ChandranG > 2024-07-11 16:11 | Report Abuse

You should ask Kossan management, Chipee. If not mistaken, they have a 60-day deadline to publish the quarter report

Posted by Chipee > 2024-07-14 13:17 | Report Abuse

Assassination on Trump fail. I consider Trump already won the election. China's going down.
Glove is going up.... Now Trump just need to stay alive to win the election.

Posted by Mini2021 > 2024-07-14 15:32 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow Glove Gap UP.... Trump win

Posted by ChandranG > 2024-07-16 15:42 | Report Abuse

wow, Abrdn & EPF sold Kossan ... They went to buy CTOS btw

Posted by Albukhary > 2024-07-17 08:39 | Report Abuse

Wow, Hong Leong give Kossan Target Price of RM3.23.

Kossan’s 1QFY24 core PATMI came in at RM24.7m (-19.6% QoQ, +191.2% YoY),
making up 13.2% of our (inline) and 16.9% of consensus (above) full year
expectations. Weaker QoQ performance was mainly due to higher tax expense of
RM8.9m (vs RM1.8m in 4QFY23). Going forward, we expect Kossan to deliver
sequentially stronger earnings in the coming quarters, underpinned by (i) the
commencement of the inventory replenishment cycle, (ii) potential trade diversion
from US to Malaysia as a result of US FDA import alert issues and higher import
tariff on China in CY26f, as well as (iii) higher profit margin from economies of
scales. On top of the recovery thesis in CY25f, we do believe there are potential
re-rating prospects for Kossan, considering its more favourable balance sheet and
income statement profiles vs Hartalega. Keep BUY call on Kossan with an
unchanged TP of RM3.23, based on a P/E multiple of 32x (at parity to Hartalega’s
3-year pre-pandemic average) on its FY25f EPS of 10.1 sen

Posted by Jack888 > 2024-07-17 09:53 | Report Abuse

VCP trend line ?? uptrend ??? buy a bit.

Posted by Albukhary > 2024-07-17 10:45 | Report Abuse

I expect coming QR Kossan can deliver PAT of RM60-70mil.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-07-17 16:01 | Report Abuse

You are quite conservative my fren... I'm looking at Rm70-80mill based on ASP of $17-18.

Albukhary

I expect coming QR Kossan can deliver PAT of RM60-70mil.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-07-17 17:24 | Report Abuse

Trump win has this effect
1) 10% tariff on every imports and 60% tariff on China. That 50% difference which more than 25% tariff in 2026. And we don't need to wait until 2026 for the effect.
2) Allow export of US Natural gas which will lower global price. Msia gloves use natural gas as energy.
3) Higher US import tariff => Higher US inflation => Higher Rates => Higher US dollar. Kossan and Harta export to US for USD.

Msia glove sector is the best bet for Trump win.

Posted by sugerdad > 2024-07-18 10:52 | Report Abuse

> 利率提高 => 美元走高
然后美国人买不起房子车子。没有老板发展生意。
利息付不起后破产。总统下台

Posted by Albukhary > 2024-07-18 12:09 | Report Abuse

手套股经历了几年产能过剩，售价贱跌煎熬，今年四月至六月业绩初见曙光，券商分析员也上调手套业前景。

丰隆投资银行（HLIB）研究预测，手套厂商在下一季度可以交出更好业绩及盈利。

大马股市4大手套厂是顶级手套（TOPGLOVE 7113），贺特佳（HARTA 5168），高产柅品（KOSSAN 7153）及速柏玛（SUPERMX 7106）。

四大厂股价过去2个月明显回升，但是和2021年最高峰相比，股价蒸发80%左右。

顶级手套终止连亏7季窘境 Q3净赚5067万令吉


在周二的行业更新中，HLIB表示，虽然总体上看好经营环境的改善，但认为 2025 财年的复苏论调已被合理定价。

我们维持对该行业的 “中性 “评级，但对高产柅品（KOSSAN 7153）及的评级为 “买入”。

HLIB称，销售量将显着恢复，而平均销售价格（ASP）将从第二季度（2024年第二季度）起逐步改善。

该研究机构称，就地区而言，总部位于泰国的斯里庄手套公司自2020年中期上市以来，其2024财年第一季度的销售量达到了101亿件（季度环比增长14%），创下了新的记录，以510亿件的装机容量计算，工厂利用率达到了87%。

该公司称，就以泰铢计算的平均售价而言，斯里庄市环比略微增长了 1%。

该报告说，在中国，自 2023 财年第二季度以来，丁腈医用橡胶手套的主要生产商一直在满负荷生产。

“2024 年第 1 季度，中国最大的丁腈手套生产商英科医疗（Intco Medical）的丁腈手套销量持平，而根据我们的回溯计算，丁腈手套的平均售价（ASP）至少环比增长了 13%。

“例如，贺特佳（HARTA）以令吉计算的平均售价在2024年第1季度提高了2%至3%，但其他公司的平均售价却下降了2%至5%。

“因此，我们得出结论，与全球同行相比，2024 财年第一季度的销售量和平均售价轨迹的偏差主要是由于本地同行之间的价格竞争造成的，因为一些企业的产能仍然过剩，”它说。

HLIB表示，虽然它对手套生产商经营环境的改善持积极态度，但2025财年的复苏论调已被合理定价，因为5月份美国宣布对中国加征关税后，积极的情绪推动了近期的股价反弹。

Posted by Albukhary > 2024-07-19 01:23 | Report Abuse

英科医疗(300677)7月18日晚间发布业绩预告，预计2024年上半年度实现净利润5.5亿元—6.2亿元，同比增长87.61%—111.49%。报告期内，公司产能利用率达100%，一次性丁腈手套及一次性PVC手套的销售均价较去年同期均有所提升。

Posted by mf > 2024-07-19 03:35 | Report Abuse

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average

40,652.89

-545.19

1.32%

Nasdaq

NASDAQ Composite

17,817.01

-179.90

0.99%

Posted by ChandranG > 2024-07-19 15:32 | Report Abuse

Looks like BIMB and Kenanga are shorting glove counters ...

Posted by Mini2021 > 2024-07-22 09:05 | Report Abuse

Kossan Net Profit 80 million+

Posted by Albukhary > 2024-07-22 14:07 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/07/22/trump-20---more-pain-than-gain

Posted by Albukhary > 2024-07-22 14:08 | Report Abuse

China kena 60% Tariff, Malaysia kena 10% Tariff.
I thinks this can consider a good news for Malaysia Glove Player?

Posted by Albukhary > 2024-07-23 13:11 | Report Abuse

随着行业供需调整，库存逐步消化，一次性手套销量开始出现较快增长。从价格来看，2024年二季度丁腈手套出口价格已经企稳回升，至5月底，出口均价已连续3个月实现月度环比价格提升，一次性手套行业经营拐点已经出现。

2024年一季度，英科医疗(26.220, -0.66, -2.46%)实现营收22.03亿元，同比增长40.06%，实现扣非净利润1.61亿元，同比增长194.63%。业绩大增主要原因是销量的增长，另外，2024年上半年实现净利润5.5亿元至6.2亿元，同比增长87.61%-111.49%，原因是产能利用率提升及销售均价较2023年同期有所提升。

业绩拐点已现

华创证券将一次性手套行业分为三个发展阶段：第一阶段是平稳期，2020年以前，行业处于平稳运行期，供需稳定；第二阶段是狂热期，2020年开始，疫情暴发带来一次性手套需求量飙升，但由于手套差产能难以在短时间内扩充，供需错位下一次性手套价格快速上涨，量价齐升下相关企业实现了业绩的显著增长。为了进一步吸收潜在订单，国内外相关厂商提出了扩产计划；第三阶段为冷静期，2020年之后，疫苗接种逐渐普及，新冠疫情也逐步得到控制，导致一次性手套需求量降低，此外市场新增产能开始投放，同时原材料成本开始下降，一次性手套价格进入下行通道，行业在供需关系调整中逐渐回归理性。

2022年，英科医疗营收和净利润同比分别下降59.27%、91.53%，中红医疗(9.170, -0.08, -0.86%)营收净利润同比分别下降67.97%、97.14%，蓝帆医疗(4.360, -0.02, -0.46%)的健康防护产品销售收入同比下降46.6%；2023年，英科医疗营业收和净利润同比分别变化4.61%、-39.12%，中红医疗收和净利润同比分别变化33.87%、-295.57%，蓝帆医疗的健康防护产品销售收入同比下降4.77%。

营收大幅下降原因主要为销售价格的下降。以英科医疗为例，2019年公司个人防护类产品营业收入和销售量分别为17.69亿元、155.09亿只，可知单价约为114.09元/千只。2020年和2021年，个人防护类产品营业收入为134.52亿元、158.07亿元，销售量为247.64亿只、404.51亿只，由此可大致算得一次性手套单价分别为543.21元/千只、390.78元/千只，然而2022年和2023年，个人防护类产品营业收入为60.05亿元、61.8亿元，销售量为463.82亿只、615.93亿只，即单价分别为129.47元/千只、100.34元/千只，2023年甚至低于疫情前水平。

根据英科医疗2024年度一季报，当期营业收入增长主要是报告期订单增加、销量增加。而就价格而言，机构判断价格调整已经进入尾声。

从供给端来看，各手套厂商目前已经暂停产能扩张，而且小厂商在手套价格下行过程中陆续出清，经销商库存基本消化完成，供给过剩压力已经得到极大缓解。

根据顶级手套2023年3月16日发布的2023年二季度财务季度（2022年12月至2023年2月）报告，丁腈手套销量出现环比回升，价格环比降幅大幅收窄，表明一次性手套渠道库存去化周期已经临近尾声。此外顶级手套同时公告，由于手套行业面临亏损和成本上升，手套平均售价已经于2023年2月起开始上调。而在宣布提价随后的两个多月里，顶级手套股价最高涨幅超过50%，贺特佳同时间段股价最高涨幅超过40%。

顶级手套提到，马来西亚的手套制造商已将手套的平均售价从17美元/千只提高到21美元/千只，新冠事件前丁腈手套的价格平均约为20-22美元/千只。从2月初开始上调价格后，公司手套平均售价增加了10%-20%，预计3-5月的交货期将继续提价，每月价格增量5-10%。

华创证券指出，2023年初，国产丁腈手套价格约为15美元/千只，马来西亚丁腈手套价格约为17美元/千只，其中2美元价差源自于美国对中国征收的关税，属于合理价差。2023年上半年，马来西亚手套厂商开始陆续涨价，但国产厂商仍然维持原价，将促进国产丁腈手套价格上行。

从丁腈手套出口价格来看，自2022年全球需求量下滑开始至2023年末，手套出口价格一直在持续走低，但2024年二季度已出现价格企稳回升趋势。根据海关总署的数据，医用丁腈手套5月出口均价达到16.57美元/千只，环比4月提升4.0%，已经连续3个月实现月度环比价格提升。

国内份额提升

全球一次性手套生产主要集中在东南亚和中国，疫情以前国内厂商整体产能规模与马来西亚头部厂商差距较大。据国盛证券统计，2019年马来西亚头部厂商顶级手套、贺特佳与高产柅品产能合计超过1350亿只，而同期国内头部厂商英科医疗、蓝帆医疗与中红医疗产能合计470亿只。

疫情爆发后，一次性医疗手套的需求显著增加，供不应求下手套价格大幅上涨，手套需求和价格于2021年一季度达到峰值水平，以一次性丁腈手套为例，其价格曾增至之前的4-5倍。2020年、2021年全球一次性手套销量分别达到6527亿只、7670亿只，同比分别增长23.4%、17.5%，销售收入达到192亿美元、264亿美元，同比分别增长118.2%、37.5%。

市场需求爆发之下，全球手套厂商尤其是国内厂商开始加速扩产，产能规模大幅提升，其中以马来西亚的顶级手套和中国的英科医疗扩建产能最快。国内头部厂商与马来西亚头部厂商之间的产能差距显著缩小。

2021年马来西亚头部厂商顶级手套、贺特佳与高产柅品产能合计1775亿只，两年增长31%，而国内头部厂商英科医疗、蓝帆医疗与中红医疗产能合计 1475亿只，增长2倍以上。

2022年随着行业景气度下降，国内外手套龙头均降低了扩产进度和数量。顶级手套在2021年9月产能为1000亿只/年，预计2025年其产能预计扩张至2010亿只/年；2023年披露的最新扩产计划显示，产能仍为1000亿只/年，至2025年产能预计扩张至1150亿只/年。

2022年，英科医疗陆续终止了临湘市年产400亿只（4000万箱）高端医用手套项目、夏邑年产131亿只（1310万箱）PVC高端医用手套项目、年产50亿只TPE手套和50亿只CPE手套项目。

至2023年，顶级手套、贺特佳与高产柅品产能分别为950亿只、310亿只、320亿只，合计1580亿只，国内头部厂商英科医疗、蓝帆医疗与中红医疗产能分别为790亿只、480亿只、260亿只，合计1530亿只。

目前，马来西亚一次性手套产量占全球的65%，中国占20%，其他国家占15%。相比疫情前的2019年，中国市占率已有显著提升：2019年，英科医疗市占率2%，蓝帆医疗3%，中红医疗2%，然而2022年，上述厂商市占率分别达到了7%、5%、2%。华创证券指出，由于国产手套厂商新建产能占比较高，产线自动化程度较高，在产线成本控制上较马来西亚厂商存在一定优势。

行业具备成长性

前期大幅扩产导致阶段性的产能过剩，但从中长期来看，行业需求仍然保持持续增长的趋势。

2017-2022年，全球一次性手套销量分别为4409亿只、4947亿只、5290亿只、6527亿只、7670亿只、6225亿只，销售收入分别为75亿美元、85亿美元、88亿美元、192亿美元、264亿美元和117亿美元。未来随着民众的健康卫生意识提升、不断沉淀防护用品的使用习惯，以及医疗行业针对手套使用标准的规范制定，预计全球一次性手套行业还将保持稳定增长。

从人均使用量看，发展中国家及地区一次性手套人均使用量远低于发达国家及地区水平。2020年，荷兰手套人均使用量为317只、美国人均使用量300只，而中国大陆人均使用量仅为9只，印尼人均使用量为6只，与发达国家和地区的人均使用量水平相比，有巨大的增长空间。

首创证券(19.900, -0.18, -0.90%)表示，重大疫情的发生会带来短期需求量的激增，例如2010年的HINI疫情、2012年的MERS疫情、2014年的EBOLA疫情。疫情过后手套市场会经历一个调整期， 2011年和2015年全球一次性手套需求出现下滑，但通常调整时间约为1年左右，在次年均恢复正向增长。虽然2022年一次性手套需求下降，但仍高于疫情前2019年的水平。

其认为，一次性手套行业属于成长性行业，调整期过后仍然会恢复正常增长。随着渠道库存的消化、使用场景拓展和发展中国家渗透率提升等有利因素，终端需求有望恢复增长，一次性手套的采购需求将逐步恢复正常。

Posted by ChandranG > 2024-07-23 20:57 | Report Abuse

Kenanga still shorting glove stocks ...😑

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/719944

Posted by 5231428 > 2024-07-23 22:48 | Report Abuse

QR coming out soon,huge profits.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-07-24 20:48 | Report Abuse

Kenanga totally ignore the Rm2bill cash in Kossan in their TP calculation. This Rm2bill brings in 40million in clean interest revenue annually.

ChandranG

Kenanga still shorting glove stocks ...😑

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/719944

Posted by ChandranG > 2024-07-25 23:34 | Report Abuse

Ya, Chipee. Let's short squeeze them

Posted by Chipee > 2024-07-26 00:25 | Report Abuse

I wonder if we can allow our broker to allow shorties to use our stock for shorting? Basically lending them our stocks for them to short. We make some interest in the process. Warren Buffet loves that.

Posted by Mini2021 > 2024-07-26 10:31 | Report Abuse

QR today?? or Boss will postponed again?

Posted by Chipee > 2024-07-26 18:28 | Report Abuse

Last QR out 1 month late. So I expect the same for this qr result. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Posted by Albukhary > 2024-07-29 00:38 | Report Abuse

August will be the month for Glove Counter to outperform.
Kossan have chance to hit RM2.80.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-07-29 15:34 | Report Abuse

Sto RSI is oversold below 20. It should bounce up this week.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-07-31 08:42 | Report Abuse

From Hartalega forum I share it here:

The only fear of China gloves is them undercutting in ASP. Lets think this logically.

TopGlove ASP is $17. Operational Loss
Hartalega ASP is $21. Operational Loss
Kossan ASP is $16. Operational Profit
China ASP is $16. Operational Profit

Logic 1:
Is China operation so cost effective and "special" that they are still in operational profit although selling at lower ASP?
Answer is NO. If that is true, then Kossan should be in operation loss like other Msian gloves company. Since Kossan is making operational profit, this can only mean LOWER ASP are STEALING ORDERS from HIGHER ASP glove makers. Demand being limited, hitting the right volume will make operational profit. China "high tech" operation is NOTHING SPECIAL. Hartalega and Kossan have automation in their production. They are also very "high tech".

Logic 2:
Can China expanded production capacity kills Msia glove makers by stealing orders with lower ASP?
Answer is NO. Four biggest Msian glove companies had already cut production capacity in 2023/24 to reduce losses. So if China expand bigger, the higher FIXED COST will bring their operation to losses. Glove is a thin profit margin product. It's balance between ASP and VOLUME to be profitable. China cannot afford to lower their ASP further (Back to Logic 1: China "high tech" is not special).

Logic 3:
Then why China expanded their production capacity?
Bcoz of covid, ALL glove makers expanded their production capacity. China had zero-covid policy which extended the life of their expanded capacity. China will make losses if TopGlove and Hartalega lower their ASP to $16. This will easily kill of China glove makers. It is all about GETTING THE VOLUME ORDER or demand increases. If China is smart, they too should reduce production capacity (But apparently, they are not).

China only has ONE tactic ... throw price. But US tariff of 25% in 2026 will kill them. If Donald Trumps win, 60% tariff will definitely kill them and we don't need to wait until 2026. Lets hope Trump wins.

US market covers 30% of global glove demand. But higher tariff will improve Msia glove ASP significantly and GETTING 30% of the GLOBAL VOLUME ORDER.
$16 x 1.25 = $20.
Msia just need to sell at $19 to kick China's order out of US.
China glove will definitely go into LOSSES with LOWER VOLUME.

As for 70% of the global market, Malaysia can just follow China's price to be competitive.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-07-31 09:01 | Report Abuse

The biggest joke is Maybank analyst visited China production and got glittered eyes. They see touchscreen and "high tech" stuff and they lost their minds. Ridiculous ..... 😂

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/07/31/glove-sector-to-see-continued-challenges-ahead

Posted by Chipee > 2024-07-31 09:06 | Report Abuse

Ok ... I'm going back in for more. Finally.

Posted by SWT1988 > 2024-07-31 12:07 | Report Abuse

Slowly disposing after touching oversold position this morning? Weak closing will be bad

Posted by Endgame > 2024-07-31 12:43 | Report Abuse

Market overreaction so called the analyst plant visit. My China friend work in Intco told
me China government want them to ready enough medical glove to deal with the next pandemic, so there will be no local shortage of medical glove if that time coming. This is main purpose, they learn from experience. Analysts didn't tell you this as their purpose is to influence the price down so they can collect more Kossan. Demand of medical glove will in uptrend, will not come down.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-07-31 13:23 | Report Abuse

Opportunity to collect. Set a budget. Divide into 3 tranches and buy. Set lowest possible buy price.

SWT1988

Slowly disposing after touching oversold position this morning? Weak closing will be bad

Posted by Chipee > 2024-07-31 13:24 | Report Abuse

Overaction up = Sell. Overaction down = Buy. Sentiment play.

Endgame

Market overreaction so called the analyst plant visit. My China friend work in Intco told
me China government want them to ready enough medical glove to deal with the next pandemic, so there will be no local shortage of medical glove if that time coming. This is main purpose, they learn from experience. Analysts didn't tell you this as their purpose is to influence the price down so they can collect more Kossan. Demand of medical glove will in uptrend, will not come down.

Posted by KimSua > 2024-07-31 15:25 | Report Abuse

Demand is going strong. IB decided to take profit earlier than expected. Fundamentals has not changed. IB has insider advantage on what they will post and shorties will be glad to support. Have to wait another round when they need to cover their shorts. Already stable in the afternoon. Many caught off guard this time

Posted by KimSua > 2024-07-31 15:30 | Report Abuse

BTW the factories planner still very busy with the ramp up. And August ustr tariff will consolidate the industry feedback. If they will increase/reduce /stick to 25 percent tariff. I have read the summary medical gloves are considered no risk as alternative is easily available. So they might even increase and reduce trade items that has difficulty in their supply chain.