When everyone saying gloves no future, but have u even study and think thru why those glove bosses quietly keeping expansion thier factory production capacities?
guys, once the price hit below RM1.00, i'm afraid its a signal for the counter to 'normalise' around RM0.50 to RM0.90 max for future price..my opinion is that all the financial performance until end of 2021 that u guys boasted about has already been priced in last year up until last october 2020..there's no way this counter can reach previous highest anymore as every analyst expected glove demand to be 'neutralized' past 2022 & above (not bankrupt, profit will still there, just that supply of glove will met demand globally), due to more glove player enter the scene especially from china & more expansion of production from other producers..so please pray that the price will get a hard & strong rebound once it reached below RM1.00 & not keep going under afterwards
so becareful..even for investor, be careful especially past 2022 & beyond..keep alert with glove's demand vs supply from various sources
Keown83 I personally do not think the market has priced in Rubberex growth potential. They would be hitting 10 billion gloves by mid 2022. That's a 400% increase in capacity to offset any ASP decline. Hence, why I'm holding as I believe the upside is there.
DevKrishna you can't look at shares from just the price. You need to understand 2 major things. First is the market capitalization of a company which is derived by number of shares times by share price to give the total valuation of the company. Second you need to see the industry price earnings average to sense check the valuations to the company fundementals. Astro has potential as the Disney plus distributor!
@ValueInvestor20 yes, & at the same time other producer has & also did the same..didn't i told that glove supply will met global demand by 2022 onwards? what do u think will happen when glove supply > global demand? it means more choice for buyer, & when buyer have choice, don't they will choose the best brand with the best price? did rubberex have any r&d to enrich their nitrile glove's profile? did rubberex have any plan for expanding their foot print in other than current market? the only thing they do is expanding volume, but not expanding their own presence in other new nation
2022 or onwards, only glove company that have the best footprint & the best gloves product profile will prevail, & the rest will struggle & it depends on which company can enhance their product & attract new buyer
only several glove players that i see worth to invest for long term for 2022 onwards: top glove, hartalega & kossan..supermax also is interesting to try due to their brave expansion plan in US & also their diversity in product arrangement..others will all at the mercy of global demand, worst if they have to compete under cheap alternative gloves option with other producers around the world
The expansion of factories will be on par with those players.. you forgot the facts while giving the comparison, not the analysis that I take into account no facts.
DevKrishna: Does not make sense. I’m new here. Astro is trading higher than Rubberex??? Astro better than rubber ex??
Yes it dosent make sense. But it will. Because market usually where u find value is when company undervalued, u buy, u make money when the price adjusted to go up.
Take for example Air Asia, company near bankruptcy. If they don't fix their finances, soon will get delisted from brusa. Adjusted price ? Zero or negative. U buy the stock based on their value, it's technically like buy debt. Because u own share of a company that the company owe money to other people. U are indirectly buy debt.
@BuffetOnWeed yup..i agreed when comes to Airasia..Airasia has a lot of space to go, i mean, A LOT OF SPACE..i didn't concern their debt as I know they're still the darling of Malaysian & South East Asian budget Airline even government entities willing to extend their help through various sources & alternative to keep Airasia alive even at minimum..the moment international airways become normal again, Airasia will fly..its also one of stock under my radar..im no good at accounting but at i keep focus & alert on local & international sentiment..that's how i made profit in stock market
keown83 i am glad you come back with more constructive argument compared to last time. i am very happy to get these kind of opinion which is more detailed explanation why you think rubberex is not the one for you.
Yes i tend to agree with ValueInvestor20 and BuffetOnWeed. If you look at last 12M profit, it is the more than total profit that ruberex had ever accumulated, for the past 15 years combined. this is mindblowing. for people who buy based on trend and not fundamental, it might be “just a one off normal gain”. but when look and invest using fundamental, wow, more than 15 years worth of profit is not something you see every other years.
Why i see Ruberex as a good investment 1. Management managed the balance sheet pretty well, you can see they prefer to clear the debt first over anything else 2. Their expansion, is very structured. 1B to 2.5B. then all is taken till year end, then extend 7.5B extra capacity which is not too little and not too much in my opinion. that is 10x more than pre covid capacity. 3. Pre covid, ruberex despite being a small player, consistently paid dividend and consistently reported profit which shows how efficient their management is.
I believe market has not priced in all these yet. i may be wrong but i don’t see why i should not put any trust in the management to perform. you make a very good point by saying that they need to market more and increase their presence. but the current capacity is really taken up wor until year end. i cannot say they are not doing anything unless there are unsold capacity which is no evidence there yet. Anyway in order for a stock price to go up, there is always a need for people to have different opinion. i buy now expecting their fair value of 1.6-2. someone else need to see potential of fair value 2.50 for them to buy at 2 right? else price will be dead forever. investment journey is like that. trading is different. i am not trader nor i have ability to be a trader.
Rubberex price is really unjustified. Q on Q net profit up but price down. The bigger guys like top glove actually is the one pulling down rubberex price. But this is good and bad. Good is that when go back up time, rubber ex will slingshot more in % than top glove. For example. If top glove will 2x, rubberex will potentially 4-6x. This is because rubberex growth potential is more than of top glove because got larger room to grow.
So. If Covid for some reason become a norm or even get worst, will determine how high glove will rebound. We can't tell the future, it's all a game of risk to reward. I would say probability of covid another wave, we will know soon enough, now is the test of vaccines against new variants. Viruses will mutate. It's a fact. This is why based on this. The uncertainty for recovery stocks to actually full recovery is very uncertain. Variants are certain, vaccine efficacy is not certian. Glove needed is certian.
Also, now china in hot water already because of covid investigation on the Wuhan lab. US and EU will preferably not support china where possible. Someone has to be blame for covid. Definitely will not be us.
yeah brian3381 good earning already past does not make it no earning. if you earn 1 million from bull run of glove from having nothing, does that make you dirt poor because you are not gonna earn a another million in short period of time? i am sure you will say you have more bullet to earn somewhere and earn more from bigger base of your capital now compared to previous capital of yours. same as as gloves company. they earn big very big one time. now even if it is back to normal, doesn’t make their level back to pre covid the time where your capital is rm10k or rm15k. as simple as that
aiyoo my friend, itu orang baru tahu pergi genting sailang, show hand & tenguk tiger show, how do you expect him to calculate this type of accounting, tenguk pun pengsan.
ooi8888 oh dia ada sailang itu genting ke. ooo then maybe he is a long term investor too. maybe in 5 years genting can start earning back. who knows. to me is its okay to have different view. just if you want to tell people to be careful or change people’s mind, need to do it with facts. not simply “no more profit. profit drop. run for your life. told you so” haiya. these kind i let my kids also can go type and tell people these stuff kan. haha hope he can see we all not investing unobjectively in rubberex
ok brian3381 i don’t think i will ever get intelligent analysis from you. i shall stop having any debate or sharing with you. good luck and i hope you make always in any counter you decide to buy. all the best
did you see Brian's remarks everywhere.. SCIB, SerbaDinamik, TopGlove..hahahaha..... a sign of personality disorder ( mental disorder in which the person have a rigid and unhealthy pattern of thinking, functioning, and behaving)
-Dramatic personality disorders and Narcissistic personality disorder.
@keown83 beside capacity Rubberex is expanding on fronts of innovation , geographic footprint and more to ensure that their additional capacity will be sold. Also in terms of demand meeting supply in 2022, it could be possible or it could not. Those are just forecast and forecast are not always right. For an instance no one expected ASP to raise so rapidly. Also vaccines are good, they do work to prevent death but covid-19 is still spreadable. Moreover, highten health safety awareness are now a new norm, this is a structural change to the economics of how glove will be used.
I get your arguement on the big 4 being okay to hold long term and I agree with you on that. My view on favouring Rubberex is based on certainty. Amidst all the uncertainty of vaccines, how long covid-19 will last, glove ASP, glove supply and demand, Rubberex capacity will still increase 300% to 10 billion gloves and the management is actively taking measures to ensure it can sell those gloves. That's my bet, my view based on sheer certainty in a sea of uncertainty.
Some my call me wise whole others my call me foolish. Often foolish and wise are one in the same. Only time will tell. Regardless of the results I'm okay to hold because my 80% gains from MMC, stable positions in Jaks, Esceram and my bottom catching of Serba Dinamik more than mitigates my risk of holding to see the outcome. If your portfolio if 100% gloves or Rubberex then I don't think you'll hold to see the outcome.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Silent88
65 posts
Posted by Silent88 > 2021-06-11 10:30 | Report Abuse
I also don’t know what to hold or sell already , f up