@BrusaCasino no use depend on that current profit margin..we are looking at future expectation..future expectation is all about the balance of demand vs supply..when ASP shows tappering off & going downwards, having expanding volume of supply will not giving u any big bonus for the company's future potential, it just telling that u have big volume to counter lower product price, that's all & that's it..worst is when u know ur company have to compete with china companies as ur company has been viewed as just another cheap optional glove supply in case can't get a better glove brand..that will shut the door for any hope on another bull ride
1. Glove making a lot of money now vs less money in future
Yes, now is abnormal profit, but increase in demand means opportunity to expand and still able to sell all your capacity. Even with drop in ASP, the quantum of volume and lower cost can help in at least make the company maintain about 50-70% of the eps. The key here is not ASP dropping, but what will be the normalize ASP after pandemic. Some say USD 28, some say USD 40, some say USD 45. Is up to your research. if everyone knows, all will be billionaire already. As an investor, this is where you need to do your research well and use your deduction power. Then you would be able to know what entry is consider undervalue.
2. China expand like crazy and will overtake Malaysia
Yes they expand quite quickly or do they. Can name me 10 companies with volume of their new capacity and which market they supply to? I think there is a reason we went through multiple pandemics and Malaysia is still the world leader in glove. Don’t look down on 20-30 years of experience and RND spent by Malaysian glove company. If you think China will be the world leader, then you are free not to invest here. But i stick to believing that Malaysia will keep being the leader in gloves worldwide and China cannot dethrone Malaysia. And all these China going big even by analyst, is without backings or evidence. It is just a sentence of ‘our analyst is in view of’. That is all.
3. Cannot sell new capacity
Current order is fully taken up until end of the year. Started taking 2022 order. Expansion is imminent. And having been in the industry for more than 10-15 years, will definitely give you better advantage. Buy iphone or buy iphone clone from dunno where with same ui and function better? lol
4. Analyst keeps downgrading. They must have known something we don’t knw
To me analyst has their own KPI to achieve and like how you are working in your company, to meet your KPi, you will do whatever it takes. Not to say all is like that, but if analyst is ever correct, why did when last few quarters glove companies has outperform their expectation and they keep downgrading the price but increasing their forecast numbers. The moment some slightly underperform, you lower your forecast and the forecast is probably higher than your initial forecast with a lower TP than your initial TP last time. It is like everytime you working as sales person, exceed sales target, give higher target but cut your commission. Once you cannot achieve your higher or increased sales target, say you are a failure and cut your comission and your bonus also now. You cannot win liao like that. Lol.
Just my 2cents. Do your own research. No need to badmouth investor who wish to buy in nor shall we condemn shall you want to cut win or cut lose.
Private Placement is bad news when company has lots of cash and share buyback. It means boss is reckless with share price and careless about minor shareholders...dont even think of buying.
Short term minority suffers until expansion is proven fruition. But noticed the strategy is the same for the gloves sector?Expansion in volume to compensate drop in ASP
You know its manipulated when the seller throws small units to buyers when the buyers overwhelmed by thousands. They are keeping the price down intentionally
Sneakpeek Tell u someone purposely make the counter unfavorable..no dividend PP some more..to lower the price for take over.
----------------
This statement is quite interesting. If u think of it, yes actually if I were someone with alot of money, I would buy out the whole company.
The NAPS and Cash Balance itself is alot. Maybe more that the whole market cap itself. So if I buy whole rubberex at around 800M - 1B, following quarter is clean profit already, get to keep all of it. Within one year, generated net profit equal to half of the initial investment already. ROI in 1.5-2 years. Plus get to keep everything else from initial investment.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Bullrunrun
971 posts
Posted by Bullrunrun > 2021-06-22 19:59 | Report Abuse
https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/delta-plus-variant-may-defeat-vaccines-prof-jameel-1817761-2021-06-22