The good and bad thing about investment is sometimes some can see something entirely different from the conventional wisdom (crowd), hence, make supernormal profits. (Am not referring to insider trading).
The interesting part about this company is the MD/CFO bought the shares (from market and ESOS), and many of his principal officers sold the shares instead.
Now, how come the management team bet against their own boss? How come the boss didn't manage to convince the management team that the money is in long term? Perhaps it is a "holding power issue"
sosfinance sifu, simple la, the employees not share market fans la, they also may not have so much cash to buy ESOS la. Some of them, you see hor, buy ESOS second time after they sold in open market. If they dun have all the cash to buy all ESOS allocated to them, or even if they have but scare by the time they got the shares the price drop, They will take the approach of buying batch by batch. For Gadang, they can buy 1 batch, sold it and buy 1.5 time more ESOS and sell in open market until they take up all ESOS allocated to them la.
This piece of news even worse. https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/9261.jsp at least TA mentioned Gadang is selling its Plantation Business, although they they confused people by saying the business conservatively worth 52mil, using 25k per hectare to calculate. This paper change the whole thing to selling oil palm estate.... But one can say this is because TA report is so misleading.
Dear sosfinance sifu, it's simple. If I'm a Gadang employee and bought shares thru ESOS, I also will sell some and buy other high yield counters. Gadang share price moves like the turtle, is slow!
@tksw, use analysts' reports as reference (with a pinch of salt). Some analysts overstate this, but understate something else much much more. If I tell you analyst understate FYE2018 & FYE2019 profits by 30-40%, so how? Everyone is responsible for their own investments and evaluation. Their "coverage" is not thorough enough. That's all.
@btw, i make mistakes too. Using wrong assumptions. Nobody asked detail questions, like, out of 2000 ha, how many ha is planted and plantable. (actually only 1000 ha is planted)
Is it planted on a flat land with good irrigation or on slops? What is the average FFB yield (mt) per ha? Does the plantation has any mill? The estimated selling price of FFB? Estimated extraction rate of FFB (will determine the price of FFB). Average age of trees.
Point to note, if you work back ward from the revenue (about RM2m plus), you will realise, the FFB yield is very low. This is a non-core biz, hence, many don't spend too much time on it, which is rightly so. Else, we derail our concentration on the CORE which need better analysis, because, any mistake (assuming) will deviate a lot for the valuation. Say, the biz is worth RM1.2b, some analysts overstate by RM37m, so, it's only 3% of the total estimates. No big deal.
SOS finance sifu, we layman make mistake is ok. but as an analyst, they are professional and they have certain privileges on certain information. They should have been careful when making assumption. Such silly mistake is way too obvious and too unacceptable as a layman with poor england like me can spot...
On 30 April 2009, Desiran Impian Sdn Bhd (“Desiran Impian”) entered into two (2) joint development agreements to develop a total of 5,181 acres agriculture lands at Ranau, Sabah into oil palm plantations. The landowners shall sub-lease the lands to Desiran Impian for the purpose of cultivating, developing, maintaining and upkeeping the lands into oil palm plantations and to undertake other ancillary/related activities on a commercial scale on the lands at Desiran Impian’s own cost and expense. The term for the Agreements for the lands is thirty (30) years and shall be extended for an additional term of thirty (30) years with a right of further extension for an additional term of thirty (30) years or the remaining lease period in the titles (whichever is earlier) or such other mutually agreed period.
Gadang didn't own the land la, just sub-lease the land for 30 years, then developed it into palm oil plantation. total iinvestment cost is 17 mil, loss money and get rid of it with 1.5 mil loss at last. That is a wise decision as they can take back the cash for more profitable business which they are good at. Together with the money they got from ESOS. Gadang wil be in better position to bid more projects and to run their business smoothly. Of course the chance of paying dividend is increase.
Laf die me the TA analyst said CONSERVATIVE VALUATION of the business (actually they wanna said land) is 52mil... Harlo... are they implying that Gadang management is way beyond stupid to sell the business at 15mil? Gadang in trouble?
the analyst have no choice but to say disappointed to save his own face. else he had to say sorry for didn't do the homework properly on the plantation unit value. instead of checking the land ownership, land tenure, tree age profile and yield, he simply hentam one number.
Larrytrader sifu, last AGM bossy already said at least same as last year ma... so you use last year results minus this year first 3 Qtr ma know coming qtr liao lor, plus or minus oni.
Ethanpro sifu, good no good is depend on ppl. for me enough already. next financial year geng lor, Gadang. Contribution from Capital City already can cover 100mil profit at least. Others are additional bonus. MRT2 and the affordable housing kick in starting from next year, after next year will contribute more profit figure as the work progress, and Kwasa land project kicks in 2019 to continue the story. TRX City project oso should start work soon. Then the company is waiting for Hospital Project and LRT 3 project. If they strike one... walaueh, 3-5 years dun have to worry on the prospect liao, and 3-5 years cannot bid new project meh?
One of the principles Charlie Munger advice is the Theory of Cinderella. It's not that when it strikes midnight, the coach and horses will turn into pumpkin and mice. Its about, when you apply this theory in your investment, you do not have to worry about the "IN BETWEEN" of the story
Once upon a time........(noises or in coma - in between of the story)......... And they live happily ever after in the end.
The only human emotion that can make money in investment is "PATIENCE". Patience, pay.
If you do not embrace this theory, you will have to ......... RUN, before your investment turn into a pumpkin and mice.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Jun Yi Lim
432 posts
Posted by Jun Yi Lim > 2017-07-17 14:13 | Report Abuse
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ibhd-2q-net-profit-33-rm1963m
Let's earn $$ guys