Today's opening price for fitters is manipulated by someone. The buyer and seller actual is the same person. They just sell 100000 shares at Rm 0.69 to themselves only because this transaction just take about 2 seconds to complete. After that no more buyers or sellers already. Luckily I sold all my shares on this counters already. Beware guys of this counter.
The WA is in the money at discount. Must caution. Would like to see what will happen until its expiry date. Fear is last minute manipulation to push the mother down and make WA out of money and became worthless.
WA is not call warrant ,there is no reason for them to push the mother down, the only worry is share dilution after all the 98M WA being exercised and the forward EPS for 2012 may drop to around 8 sen or lower.
Fitters at 69.5 sen and Wa at 14 sen with an exercise price of 53 sen means Wa is trading a a discount of 3.6% [(14+53)/69.5-1]. Say if Fitters stays at the present price when Wa expires on 27/11/2012, Wa holders who have bought Wa at 14 sen pays 53 sen to convert to Fitters and sell in the market at 69.5 sen, they will make 18% (3.6%*5) because of the gearing of 5. Not bad at all for this investment for slightly more than one month time, of is it? No, company, in this case Fitters, generally don't push down the underlying share. What for? They don't mind you paying 53 sen and convert to the underlying share. The underlying share however, will generally go down in price itself. Yes, the dilution effect of more Fitters shares now. So by the time you get back the converted Fitters shares, Fitters likely won't stay at that price at the expiry date of Wa but generally goes down. By how much Fitters will go down? You can approximate by looking at the money Wa holders pay to convert and the dilution effect on its earnings. But nobody would guess it precisely right.
Yeah, you are right kc. But for those with holding cost less than 10 sen, its worth waiting and taking the risk cos safety margin is there to cover. We don't expect severe disaster here.
In actual fact, company warrants like Fitters is an American type option which one can converts any time now and no need to wait until expiry date of the warrant. In fact there is an arbitrage opportunity here as detail below: Sell 1000 shares of Fitters at 69.5 sen on Monday morning, get 695.00 Buy 1000 shares of Fitters Wa at 14 sen, pay 140.00 Send Fitters Wa for conversion, pay 1000*0.53=530.00 Total cost = 140+530= 670 Profit = 695-670=25 or 3.7% The risk-less profit is 3.7%, just like that, no need to come up with any cash. Sorry for the overestimation of profit in my previous post. However, Bursa does not allow short selling. One has to come out with the initial 140.00 to buy the Wa and 530.00 for the conversion cost. It is not really riskless because you can't sell first and assure your profit. The risk is that by the time you get back the converted share, the underlying share price has dropped. But why should one convert the Wa before its expiry date to lose the time value of the warrant, if the profit is not riskless?
Not yet, because of pending earning dilution from the conversion of WA, hope to enter at a better price should market make a serious correction which will come sooner or later.
Simple logic will tell you that if you have mother shares and warrant ( the majority share holders should have that ), just sell the mother and convert the warrant, the balance is still good ,about 13 sen and this is what I had pointed out in July - the risk of share dilution from warrant conversion.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Jjtrader
1,178 posts
Posted by Jjtrader > 2012-10-12 12:38 | Report Abuse
Today's opening price for fitters is manipulated by someone. The buyer and seller actual is the same person. They just sell 100000 shares at Rm 0.69 to themselves only because this transaction just take about 2 seconds to complete. After that no more buyers or sellers already. Luckily I sold all my shares on this counters already. Beware guys of this counter.