Posted by Fieldbus > 2023-02-22 16:00 | Report Abuse

For this wave I expect it to hit 0.52/0.53 before a rebound upward.

Posted by Michael Kwok > 2023-02-22 17:16 | Report Abuse

Sell call bumi armada 56 cents
Tp 45 cents below
22/2/23 5.16pm

Posted by KimSua > 2023-02-23 07:09 | Report Abuse

Expert another round of USD strengthening and wti oil price hover around USD70 for the SPR to buy back. At least a few weeks. US market should go side ways with a few bear market rallies . This cycle should continue until at least 3rd qtr. So sideways trading strategy applies.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-02-23 16:55 | Report Abuse

Tmrw show time!

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-02-23 18:19 | Report Abuse

Uncle today got pumping?

Posted by zonefinder > 2023-02-23 22:45 | Report Abuse

Reckon Qtr results after lunch tomorrow

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-02-23 23:33 | Report Abuse

Armada Sterling V set to begin oil production in May.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/india-s-ongc-unveils-start-up-date-for-flagship-deep-water-development/2-1-1408642

Not sure if this means first oil will come earlier, or if May is the intended first oil date. Either way, seems like a slight delay. Not sure if the delay is due to FPSO operator (the vessel was hooked-up at the end of Dec 22), or with ONGC / other components of the 98/2 field.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-02-23 23:38 | Report Abuse

Now that I think about it, first oil should be imminent (in the coming days/weeks). May 2023 is the likely target date for the "full acceptance" of the FPSO vessel and commencement of oil production charter.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-02-24 00:43 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by vespa > 2023-02-24 10:10 | Report Abuse

Niki thanks for the consistent update some others are just interesting whackos

Posted by vespa > 2023-02-24 10:26 | Report Abuse

meant some other contributors are whacky doos lol

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-02-24 13:12 | Report Abuse

Beautiful set of results at first glance. Headline net profit of RM210m for Q4 2022!

Will post more thoughts after a deeper dive.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-02-24 13:25 | Report Abuse

Reported net profit: RM210.7m

Adjustments:
1) Loss on disposal: RM14.2m
2) Impairment loss: RM3.1m
3) FX gains: RM5.7m

Adjusted net profit: RM210.7m + 1 + 2 - 3 = RM222.3m

Bumi Armada is a cash cow, but it's just "unexciting" for now. Kinda boring. We need some positive newsflow people! Curiously, the analyst briefing slides also seem very boring - nothing new in there.

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2023-02-24 13:40 | Report Abuse

Qtr excellent and continuously improving but no volume.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-02-24 13:41 | Report Abuse

This is the record profit since Armada was listed!

Congratulations to all Armada strong supporters!

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-02-24 13:42 | Report Abuse

Debt evolution: https://i.ibb.co/G5Bx1YF/armada-q4-debt.png

Time series visualisation: https://i.ibb.co/wKFsRSN/armada-q4-ts.png

Posted by Macgyver11 > 2023-02-24 13:43 | Report Abuse

Price naik one day show only as usual monday this cash cow will drop back to 0.55c. Armada trend.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-02-24 13:51 | Report Abuse

Wow net gearing below 1.0.
Is 0.92 now!!!

Thanks Niki for the great summary!

Posted by ageetkumar > 2023-02-24 13:55 | Report Abuse

If valuation continues to be low, could easily become target for privatisation

Posted by i3lurker > 2023-02-24 14:00 | Report Abuse

HIS punya barang always privatised cheap cheap one you dunno meh?
look at HIStory
take any TP like 80 sen with many pinches of salt like say one million tonne of salt

Posted by ageetkumar > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse

If valuation continues to be low, could easily become target for privatisation

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2023-02-24 14:23 | Report Abuse

Armada has ticked off almost all the boxes....

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-02-24 14:33 | Report Abuse

Uncle! when your age getting old you starting to worry about this worry about that.
Share market is a dangerous place for you Uncle! You better put all your money in FD.

Look at the management team's effort in Armada in the past few years, the turnaround from a company almost bankrupted to a profitable company now.

Don't forget AK saved the company from bankruptcy in 2019 with his personal loan to Armada almost RM 2 billion. How many listed company big bosses have did the same to rescue a company? Tony Fernandes?

He has the rights to privatize this company, he deserves it! I'm willing to sell back my shares to him, if he make this call!

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-02-24 14:40 | Report Abuse

correction is US$75 million (RM314 million) financing aid.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-02-24 14:44 | Report Abuse

Yes that US$75m loan from Mezzanine Equities (Ananda's vehicle) was absolutely necessary at the point in time. Today, that amount looks like chump change. And mind you, that was right before Covid happened, and Bumi Armada weathered through as they were already on a corrected trajectory.

I don't believe Bumi Armada will be an easy privatisation target as Ananda doesn't own much of the company to begin with (around 35%). But there may always be an option to merge with MISC or Yinson to create a global flagship FPSO company.

Posted by Bull13 > 2023-02-24 15:22 | Report Abuse

2023 Budget at 4pm. Goodies for O & G companies?....

Posted by serpent100 > 2023-02-24 15:24 | Report Abuse

Armada qr good but share no power….pe 4.8x ….alamak

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-02-24 15:26 | Report Abuse

Coming soon PE 15x.

Posted by zonefinder > 2023-02-24 15:38 | Report Abuse

After this result, TP won't be 60 cts anymore. I will be diving in deeper if price go below 58. I will expect counter to go above 80 once they announce a project win.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-02-24 15:45 | Report Abuse

FPSO market leader SBM offshore building 6 FPSO at once. Give one new FPSO to Armada is good enough to send the price above 0.80.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/finance/building-six-large-fpsos-all-at-once-is-no-small-task-even-for-market-leader-sbm-offshore/2-1-1408676

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-02-24 17:19 | Report Abuse

Would be great if everyone can share the pdfs of research reports as they become available. Usually in the past AmInvest will update on the same day.

Posted by i3lurker > 2023-02-24 17:27 | Report Abuse

big funds already blacklisted all OnG
many will dispose quietly and slowly

Posted by zonefinder > 2023-02-24 19:53 | Report Abuse

i3lurker, where did you get these nonsense on big funds from?

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-02-24 22:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by alenac > 2023-02-24 23:36 | Report Abuse

alenac
Will Monday be the big boss day? Or will the following earnings report another burst of profits for Armada?
Armada had never had such a good year since 2013. Oil price is back in play as long as Putin keeps the onslaught on Ukraine.

Posted by Ninja _07 > 2023-02-26 11:46 | Report Abuse

Sell call bumi armada 56 cents
Tp 45 cents below
22/2/23 5.16pm


Michael Kwok already kokok

Posted by Heungheungloveyou > 2023-02-26 13:01 | Report Abuse

If this type of stock also rate at a sell, then there are no stocks you can buy in Bursa, better save your hard earn money in FD else you will be all time looser in your investment. My sincere advice!

Posted by i3lurker > 2023-02-26 13:09 | Report Abuse

Summary:
STRONG BUY

Moving Averages: STRONG BUY Buy (10)Sell (2)
Technical Indicators: STRONG BUY Buy (11)Sell (0)

RSI(14) 58.601 Buy
STOCH(9,6) 66.111 Buy
STOCHRSI(14) 71.246 Buy
MACD(12,26) 0.005 Buy
ADX(14) 25.961 Buy
Williams %R -27.273 Buy
CCI(14) 113.7581 Buy
ATR(14) 0.0114 High Volatility
Highs/Lows(14) 0.0125 Buy
Ultimate Oscillator 67.058 Buy
ROC 5.357 Buy
Bull/Bear Power(13) 0.0250 Buy
Buy: 11 Sell: 0 Neutral: 0
Summary: STRONG BUY

MA5 0.590 Sell 0.589 Buy
MA10 0.581 Buy 0.582 Buy
MA20 0.568 Buy 0.577 Buy
MA50 0.577 Buy 0.578 Buy
MA100 0.590 Sell 0.576 Buy
MA200 0.562 Buy 0.562 Buy

Posted by i3lurker > 2023-02-26 13:12 | Report Abuse

dun involve emotions
keep it business
you might lose some money if technicals prove wrong, sometimes sheet happens
on average plus minus over many counters if dun involve emotions, generally technicals will make net profit

Posted by i3lurker > 2023-02-26 13:29 | Report Abuse

Please remember & remember always that Technicals is mathematics and has no brain.

Technicals dun know about coming recession.
You have to decide got recession or no recession.

If technicals 100% make money all become Trillionaires already.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-02-26 22:54 | Report Abuse

OK dun pun emotions in the discussion. Let the time telling us the truth.

A company that fully recovered from the storm, trying hard to minimize the debts, generated billion cash last year and hit record profit this year. I believe the market will give a fair value for Armada within the next 6 months. I'm talking about PE 15X.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-02-27 09:23 | Report Abuse

Anybody have the full CIMB pdf?

Posted by Nepo > 2023-02-27 10:51 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/656859

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-02-27 11:25 | Report Abuse

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?file=d55634d7-cb61-4b88-bab7-427284362a73

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-02-27 11:51 | Report Abuse

Potential Bumi Armada Re-rating catalysts:

New wins:

1) Award of Cameia FPSO project in Angola from TotalEnergies - This is only an EPC contract and will only sustain earnings for 2-3 years. This is NOT a long-term charter contract
2) 1 Minor FPSO contract win (either a small/medium scale FPSO 100% owned) - Active bids in Tuna field (Indonesia) and Palok field (Mexico)
3) 1 Major FPSO contract win (large scale FPSO, likely with a JV partner) - Unlikely to be soon as there are no known large scale bids from Bumi Armada, but possibilities exist in West Africa / South America
4) Non-FPSO contract win (either 100% owned or JV) - e.g. FSRU, FSU, FSO - The Mumbai Port FSRU project has been deferred. No other publicly known bids for now
5) New contract win for the 2 SC vessels in the Caspian Sea and 1 JV-owned SC vessel in Indonesia. Potential for new wins for the Caspian Sea vessels as flurry of work in the region due to high oil price environment. All 3 vessels as at 31 Dec 2022 are laid up

Green energy:
1) "Green energy" initiatives for future FPSO/non-FPSO wins (e.g. zero flaring or fully electrified FPSO)
2) Decarbonisation for existing fleet of FPSO
3) Diversification into floating CCS and other "green" structures materialise

Business as usual:
1) First oil achievement and then full acceptance of Armada Sterling V FPSO by ONGC at the 98/2 field in India
2) Confirmation of sale or scrapping of Armada Claire FPSO
2) Full divestment of the remaining offshore vessel

Contract extensions:
1) Confirmation of contract extension for Armada TGT FPSO in Vietnam - Might only be announced in Q4 2024, but it's all but certain the contract will be extended as new wells are still being drilled in the aged TGT field
2) Contract extension of Armada Sterling II (due in Q4 2024)
3) Positive development at the Kraken field such as drilling of the Kraken Western flank or tieback to the nearby Bressay and Bentley fields - This would signal long-term contract extension for Armada Kraken FPSO which is due to expire in Q3 2025. For now, Enquest has indefinitely deferred drilling due to commence in 2023

-----------------

Note: All the above comes from my own research. Let me know if I've missed out on anything. I maintain that the Q4 2022 results, while extremely solid, were wholly "unexciting". We need positive developments that would enhance the long-term wellbeing of the company, only this will ultimately push the share price to higher levels.

Posted by MrKhan > 2023-02-27 11:52 | Report Abuse

So only Maybank downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold? Did any other IB downgraded the stock too?

Posted by pang72 > 2023-02-27 11:57 | Report Abuse

Good QR but drop.
This is the trend now. You know?

Posted by MrKhan > 2023-02-27 12:22 | Report Abuse

Can BA not convert Cameia’s EPCC job to a full build-own-lease model..given it’s current gearing and cash flow I’m sure they are capable of doing it..

Posted by serpent100 > 2023-02-27 15:58 | Report Abuse

Armada armada armada…Adik like velesto,perdana dh up ari2

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-02-27 16:41 | Report Abuse

Full build-own-lease model may require project funding via the rights issue. The risk is high but higher rewards.

The Armada Kraken delay and Armada Claire termination almost caused BA file for bankruptcy in 2019. Better play safe now.

Posted by Ninja _07 > 2023-02-28 09:38 | Report Abuse

Rights Issue on the way guys...

Its a good company no doubt, those who have holding power by all means just go in.. But others play safe yeah