KLSE (MYR): ARMADA (5210)
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Last Price
0.54
Today's Change
+0.005 (0.93%)
Day's Change
0.535 - 0.535
Trading Volume
4,354,700
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nikicheong
2,536 posts
Posted by nikicheong > 2023-02-01 14:20 | Report Abuse
RM1.00 and beyond is very much possible, however it will be predicated on fulfilling at least half of the following:
1) 1 Major contract win for FPSO (Cameia FPSO in Angola is a good bet)
2) 1 Minor FPSO contract win (either a small/medium scale FPSO 100% owned, or a large scale FPSO owned with a JV partner)
3) 1 or 2 non-FPSO contract win (either 100% owned or JV) - e.g. FSRU, FSU, FSO etc
4) "Green energy" initiatives especially for future FPSO/non-FPSO wins, and better still if current FPSOs also incorporate elements of green energy
5) Confirmation of sale or scrapping of Armada Claire FPSO
6) Confirmation of contract extension for Armada TGT FPSO in Vietnam (might only be announced in Q4 2024, but it's all but certain the contract will be extended as new wells are still being drilled in the aged TGT field)
7) Contract extension of Armada Sterling II (Q4 2024)
8) Diversification into floating CCS and other "green" structures materialises
9) Ongoing charter of the 2 SC vessels in the Caspian Sea and 1 SC vessel in Indonesia
10) First oil achievement and then full acceptance of Armada Sterling V FPSO by ONGC at the 98/2 field in India
11) Full divestment of the two remaining offshore vessels
12) Positive development at the Kraken field such as drilling of the Kraken Western flank or tieback to the nearby Bressay and Bentley fields (as this would signal long-term contract extension for Armada Kraken FPSO which is due to expire in Q3 2025)
13) No major issues at all its current producing FPSOs and FSU - Olombendo (Angola), Kraken (UK), Sterling I (India), Sterling II (India), TGT (Vietnam), Sterling III (Indonesia) and Mediterrana (Malta)
In fact, if all 13 above become a reality in the coming two years - then we shall see a strong rally to RM2.00 levels. If Bumi Armada can add a further large-scale FPSO contract win in the coming year or two (in addition to Cameia FPSO) that is backed by a long-term charter, then we might even be seeing RM3.00 levels.
Just my two cents, please share if I have missed out anything. I've been holding 350k from RM0.225 levels and added another 100k over the past year at an average price of RM0.40. I consider myself a long-term investor, but of course if there is a crazy run in price where the valuations over-run the fundamentals, I will be ready to sell.