Posted by hng33 > Nov 13, 2020 12:25 PM | Report Abuse
Ready to take off ahead of Q result next week, Tuesday, 17 Nov 2020
HNG33 IS ANOTHER VERY CLEVER FELLA IN i3 FORUM
REMEMBER YOU CHUN CHUN BOUGHT DRB AROUND RM1.00 BUT TOOK PROFIT WAY TOO EARLY. AFTER YOU SOLD DRB FOR ONLY 10% TO 15% MINISCULE PROFIT & LEFT CALVIN & FRIENDS HELD ON TO SEE DRB ROSE TO RM2.80 MORE THAN 150% UP
SO LISTEN HNG33
DON'T TAKE SMALL PROFIT AGAIN FOR FGV
HOLD FGV TIGHTLY FOR UPSIDE THAT IS AS POWERFUL AS SUPERMAX FROM RM1.29 TO RM24.44
-Mikecyc Haha why Konmabel later flag post removed all bulldog posts .. coz no more give hot dog to her .. 13/11/2020 11:16 AM
bulldog is a real gentleman..
He shared many positive posts in TDM and many other Plantation counters. Nobody flags anybody, OK?
Maybe the reason why someone flags your posting is because you are like a broken record. In time of convid, no one want to listen to broken records.
People are looking for opportunity to secure Capital Gain.
Hujan Emas Glove masih lagi bekembang Hujan Emas Vaccine mula nak jadi Hujan Emas Tech dah lama di sembang Hujan Emas Sawit sudah mula berbunga berseri seri
Guys, I don't think there is any point in arguing about the dismal performance of FGV in the past. The main factors in determining the profitability for FGV all point in the right direction. The evidence is clear: - costs are being effectively controlled; production yields are significantly up qoq from their quarterly production figures announced, and CPO prices are currently at its 8 year high, and forecast to continue to increase into 2021,
Unless there are any unforseen circumstances, then it is likely that this quarter and the next few quarter results will be very much improved over the previous ones. Have a look at the results of the other plantations companies in the sector, like TSH, Chin Teck, Kim Loong, and the big ones like KLK and Utd Plantation, to see the trend.
Yes, the issue of high debts, LLA etc, shall continue to persist over some period of time. But hey, we are talking about short term investing, so, let our judgement not be clouded by such issues at this moment.
If anyone should not agree with the evidence available and have a sense of doubt in your mind, then you should stay away. I am in at 117 as well.
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 13): While investors have been obsessed with the abnormal strong demand for rubber gloves, few might have paid attention to the solid V-shaped rebound on the crude palm oil (CPO) prices, which is now at an eight-year high level.
The two-month CPO futures contract closed at RM3,391 — highest since May 2012.
The steady climb on CPO prices since June, according to commodity experts, could last until the first quarter of 2021, if not longer, given the sustained tight supply-demand dynamics. This paints a rosy picture on the plantation companies’ earnings prospects. But, some quarters say the commodity may be nearing its peak soon.
Just when many thought that the CPO price rally, which started in August last year, was ended by the coronavirus, the commodity prices, however, has not only regained lost ground since June but it exceeded last year’s peak.
The CPO prices plummeted in the first half of the year to RM1,946 in May, from RM3,137 in early January. It then staged a strong rebound from the trough.
The latest statistics show CPO stockpile has dropped to a three-year low of 1.57 million tonnes at end-October, prompting investment analysts to lift their forecasts on CPO prices.
CGS-CIMB raised its forecast on CPO average price to RM2,620 per tonne from RM2,500. “We expect CPO prices to trade in the range of RM2,600 to RM3,200 per tonne in November and raise our average CPO price to RM2,620 per tonne for 2020 from RM2,500 per tonne, in view of the stronger-than-expected CPO price achievement over the past month,” CGS-CIMB said.
Maybank Kim Eng’s analyst Ong Chee Ting commented in a note that low stockpiles in Malaysia and weak Indonesian output in the third quarter have lifted CPO spot prices to more than RM3,000 per tonne.
“While prices will remain robust in the near term, we are concerned about its sustainability on widened palm oil-gas oil spread and prospects of an output rebound in 2021.
“Nonetheless, we raise our CPO average selling price (ASP) assumptions for 2020 to RM2,660 per tonne (from RM2,400) and for 2021 to RM2,500 per tonne (from RM2,400),” Ong wrote in the note.
CGS-CIMB Head of Research and Regional Head of Agribusiness Ivy Ng earlier commented that tight supply and festive demand could sustain the CPO prices at current level until the first quarter of 2021, if not longer.
What drives CPO prices higher?
The Covid-19 outbreak did not hit palm oil demand in China. The country has been restocking over the past few months, this has lent tremendous support to the CPO prices, according to analysts.
For the cumulative 10 months ended Oct 31, 2020 (10M20), exports of Malaysian palm oil to China grew by 20.5% y-o-y to 2.82 million tonnes, from 1.89 million tonnes in 10M19.
However, exports to India, the country with the second highest Covid-19 infections, shrunk by 52.2% y-o-y at 1.97 million tonnes for 10M20, from 4.13 million tonnes in the previous corresponding period.
Among other countries that have bought substantially higher palm oil from Malaysia are Kenya (up 180% to 372,923 tones), Saudi Arabia (up 163% to 311,870 tones), Egypt (up 245% to 135,283 tones) and Bangladesh (103% to 289,118 tones).
Meanwhile, La Nina weather phenomena have also played a role in lifting the edible oil, including soy oil and palm oil.
According to palm oil consulting firm Ganling Sdn Bhd’s director Ling Ah Hong, the development of the La Niña weather conditions would impact soybean production and in turn, CPO prices.
Ling anticipates a moderate La Niña production impact on palm oil in 1H21 can yield average CPO prices of RM2,800 by end-2020, RM3,100 in 1H21 and RM2,200 in 2H21.
A stronger La Niña, meaning drier weather in south-western America, would result in a more severe impact on soybean production. He said this, combined with a limited supply of sunflower and rapeseed oil from the Black Sea region, would result in generally higher vegetable oil prices in 1H21.
In this scenario, CPO prices are expected to be RM2,800 end-2020, RM3,300 in 1H21 and RM2,200 in 2H21. He believes the chances of a severe impact is lower.
Oil World’s Thomas Mielke commented that overall prices of vegoils will be impacted by higher prices of soybeans until 1H21.
Any drop in soybean production translates into higher soy prices, thus having a spillover impact on other vegoils.
That said, it is worth noting that CPO had been at a discount for the most part of the year, reaching a US$104.08 discount on May 12. Since then, the discount between the two vegoils has been narrowing, and ultimately turning into the premiums that have been seen since late October. This might point to downward pressure on CPO prices.
As of Nov 11, daily CPO prices were commanding a US$14.43 or RM59.6 premium over soybean oil, based on daily spot prices provided by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Soy oil prices stood at US$817.03 per tonne, while CPO was at US$831.46 a tonne.
In fact, CPO has been posting premiums over soy oil since Oct 27, 2020, having reached a US$44.86 per tonne premium on Nov 5, 2020.
High CPO prices an earnings boost
Given the CPO price rally, upstream plantation companies have been seeing better fortunes in terms of earnings.
For instance, United Plantations Bhd’s net profit for the third quarter ended Sept 30, leaped 58.3% to RM95.33 million, from RM60.2 million a year ago, thanks to higher palm prices and production. Quarterly revenue grew nearly 20% to RM334.04 million from RM278.66 million, according to the group’s filing.
For the January-September period, the company’s net profit ballooned almost 48% to RM300.1 million from RM203.07 a year ago, as revenue increased 8.7% to RM947.26 million from RM871.46 million.
United Plantations’ latest earnings figures could be the bellwether for its plantation peers who are mainly involved in upstream.
MIDF Research analyst Khoo Zhen Ye said higher CPO prices are positive for upstream players. Companies operating downstream segments would see their segment earnings growth mitigated, as higher CPO prices represent higher raw material costs. Net-net earnings would be higher.
Khoo also pointed out that there is no worker shortage problem in Indonesia, so it would be good for those who own plantations there.
Areca Capital Sdn Bhd Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Danny Wong emphasised that cost management is important, and that will determine gross margins.
Both Khoo and Wong noted that companies with more prime hectares would have greater productivity, following higher fresh fruit bunches (FFB) and CPO production.
CGS-CIMB’s Ng views higher CPO prices would mostly flow through earnings, taking into account various taxes.
That said, she cautioned this would be partially offset by lower output — if the higher price is premised on lower supply.
Generally, investment analysts are not overly excited with the current strong CPO prices, as some are not that upbeat that the upward trend could go far from current levels next year.
“The market is concerned over whether this lift in prices is premised on demand or whether it is because of the performance of other competing vegoils such as soy,” said Areca Capital’s Wong.
Here's an article by Reuters published in The Edge recently:
Palm oil prices to rally in first half of 2021, say top analysts
KUALA LUMPUR/MUMBAI (Oct 8): Palm oil prices are likely to jump in the first half of 2021, three leading industry analysts said in a webinar on Thursday, as La Nina weather pattern is set to hit edible oil supplies amid lower soybean crushing in Argentina and rising sunflower oil prices.
Heavy rainfall brought on by La Nina has started to disrupt output in Southeast Asian palm producing countries and will bring down global supply this year, said analyst James Fry.
However, the rain and better estate maintenance due to current high palm prices will significantly boost supply in 2021, said Fry, who heads commodities consultancy LMC International.
"Look out for a La Nina-induced price rally from January 2021 with soyoil leading the way," said Dorab Mistry, director of Indian consumer goods company Godrej International.
Vegetable oil prices next year should be higher due to improved demand and tighter supply of soft oils such as soyoil and sunflower oil, Mistry said.
Thomas Mielke, the executive director of Oil World, forecast Indonesian crude palm oil price in January-June 2021 would rise to US$700 a tonne.
Malaysia's benchmark crude palm oil contract has slumped about 7% so far this year, to RM2,888 (US$695.90) a tonne on Thursday, as the COVID-19 pandemic hurt demand.
Losses were pared by a recent rally in edible oil prices due to stockpiling by top buyer China for food security measures.
The rally in sunflower oil due to a lower crop has also been making soyoil and palm oil attractive to price sensitive buyers.
China's stocking policy is expected to continue with fund buying and, combined with problems in Argentina's soybean crushing, could further increase palm prices, Mielke said.
"If consumer buying plus funds buying (come together), it is possible that we temporarily reach RM3,200," he said.
Argentina's soy crushing volume is set to drop around 9.5% this year, as growers in the world's top exporter of processed soymeal and soyoil hoard beans due to unfavourable prices and taxes.
But Fry warned higher palm prices could dampen consumer demand, especially in lower income countries.
Besides, the higher palm prices cannot sustain without higher crude prices, he added.
13 NAME FCPO MONTH Nov 2020 OPEN - BID - ASK 3,600.00
LAST DONE - OI
14 NAME FCPO MONTH Dec 2020 OPEN 3,484.00 BID 3,480.00 ASK 3,516.00 LAST DONE 3,511.00 OI 12,763 CHANGE - HIGH 3,511.00 LOW 3,477.00 VOL 215 SETT. PRICE 3,511.00
15 NAME FCPO MONTH Jan 2021 OPEN 3,360.00 BID 3,377.00 ASK 3,381.00 LAST DONE 3,380.00
OI 59,525 CHANGE -11.00 HIGH 3,388.00 LOW 3,337.00 VOL 9,359 SETT. PRICE 3,391.00
16 NAME FCPO MONTH Feb 2021 OPEN 3,276.00 BID 3,290.00 ASK 3,318.00 LAST DONE 3,308.00
OI 41,781 CHANGE +1.00 HIGH 3,312.00 LOW 3,262.00 VOL 3,477 SETT. PRICE 3,307.00
17 NAME FCPO MONTH Mar 2021 OPEN 3,182.00 BID 3,211.00 ASK 3,228.00 LAST DONE 3,220.00 OI 30,511 CHANGE +9.00 HIGH 3,224.00 LOW 3,176.00 VOL 1,735 SETT. PRICE 3,211.00
18 NAME FCPO MONTH Apr 2021 OPEN 3,089.00 BID 3,115.00 ASK 3,128.00 LAST DONE 3,120.00 OI 21,788 CHANGE +3.00 HIGH 3,127.00 LOW 3,085.00 VOL 1,001 SETT. PRICE 3,117.00
19 NAME FCPO MONTH May 2021 OPEN 3,001.00 BID 3,010.00 ASK 3,040.00 LAST DONE 3,040.00 OI 20,022 CHANGE +11.00 HIGH 3,040.00 LOW 3,000.00 VOL 935 SETT. PRICE 3,029.00
20 NAME FCPO MONTH Jun 2021 OPEN 2,926.00 BID 2,955.00 ASK 2,958.00 LAST DONE 2,955.00 OI 10,945 CHANGE +8.00 HIGH 2,957.00 LOW 2,922.00 VOL 460 SETT. PRICE 2,947.00
Natural rubber price has increased 50% from USD1.03 to USD1.51 per kg. The price increase is due to rebound of car production in China and increase of rubber gloved demand. Natural rubber is essential for making of car tyres.
India slashes palm oil imports to make room for soyoil Business Today - 11/13/2020 12:21:00 PM
Indian edible oil refiners are trimming imports of palm oil to make space for soyoil as a rally in the price of palm due to output worries reduced the spread between the two, industry officials told Reuters.
Let's find out what happens these days and theafter to all plantation stoks in Malay land.
Mikecyc TheEdge Mon, Nov 09, 2020 04:00pm - 4 days ago
THE Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA) is understood to be opposed to businessman Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Albukhary’s plan to inject his plantation assets into FGV Holdings Bhd, in which the government agency has a 33.66% stake.
While details are scarce, a FELDA letter, understood to have been signed by chairman Datuk Seri Idris Jusoh, has been given to every FGV board member. Posted by si-fool Mickey MOUTH
Later India switching to more soy oil purchase by Nov, Dec according contracted of soy oil ( bad sign? Unlikely) India just fetching last trip to accumulate more soy oil b4 it out of stoks!
AND AFTER NOV 2020 TO FEB 2021 THERE WON'T BE ANY SOYBEAN PRODUCED Posted bu Mabel
And 1 more important is even India reduce order palm oil buy y
calvintaneng FCPO FOR NOV 2020 ASKING PRICE NOW IS RM3600??
Indonesian has planned for clean energy for B40 diesel will limited export of palm oil, and finally China and India will struggle to buy more Malay land palm oil
@Mikecyc FELDA officials have indirectly stated such aspirations. Last Friday at a media briefing by FELDA on the plan to terminate the land lease agreement (LLA) with FGV, Tan Sri Abdul Wahid Omar, who is the chairman of a task force aimed at reviving FELDA, said that the government agency had “no intention to dilute the (33.66%) interests” it held in FGV. This came about when newsmen asked Abdul Wahid and FELDA chairman, Datuk Seri Idris Jusoh, what the agency would do with its 33.66% stake post the termination of the LLA. 14/11/2020 5:44 AM
Opportunity is everywhere. The key is to develop the vision to see it. Don’t wait for the right opportunity: create it…
Before Convid 19, no one was looking at Glove Industry. Mabel came on board into the Glove Industry when Teresa Kok made a pledge that Malaysia is donating 18 million Gloves to China to fight Coronavirus. At that time, Mabel was thinking its part of giving back to help the Victim. Little did she knew that this industry is about to rocket and change many people's life. This is the beauty when you gives, God gives you back in Multiple Folds...Those that has invested in Gloves before March would have made 1000 Profits.
Likewise, this Food Crisis will be another game changer. Plantation will be the next industry that will rocket just like what we have seen in the Healthcare Industry. Plantation is currently rank No 3 in the 15 Sectors that Mabel Inc has invested. It’s interesting to see Mabel's Top 4 sectors are doing extremely well. The main reason is that these industries have a big impact on the Global Community.
Now let's get back to Mickeymouse...
Calvin has discovered A REAL BIG SECRET ABOUT INVESTING IN GOOD STOCKS
With appearances of si-fool Mickey MOUTH it is time to buy more palm stoks
As stated by
Mikecyc
THE Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA) is understood to be opposed to businessman Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Albukhary’s plan to inject his plantation assets into FGV Holdings Bhd, in which the government agency has a 33.66% stake.
While details are scarce, a FELDA letter, understood to have been signed by chairman Datuk Seri Idris Jusoh, has been given to every FGV board member. 14/11/2020 5:41 AM
Soon the plantation stoks will catch the uptrend of palm oil contract prise, so pls do not arrogant /refuse to grab some b4 too late since palm oil has been breached RM 3000 to almost RM 3600 liao
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Mikecyc
46,672 posts
Posted by Mikecyc > 2020-11-13 12:14 | Report Abuse
### 2020 5 monthly average CPO output per acre :
WTK : 1 acre output = 0.0684 ton
MHC : 1 acre output = 0.209 ton
TDM : 1 acre output = 0.0581 ton
( if add Indonesia 26,506 acres )
become 1 acre output = 0.0433 ton