FGV hold MSM 51% stake, the impairment loss incur in MSM will accord about RM 38m loss after minus minority interest. These amount of loss RM 38m will mitigate by the fact that FGV in Q2 also incur impairment loss RM 20m in its rubber plant in Cambodia.
Therefore, upcoming Q3 result will not much affected as FGV profit is most affected by movement in CPO price + FFB production + palm mil utilization rate. Each of these 3 factors much in line to boosts FGV real profit contribution.
Some may augur why in Q1, FGV also incur loss despite high CPO price above RM 2800, these is because in earlier Q1, FGV FFB production at much low level -33%, and its palm mill also process much less FFB, resulted higher cost CPO production cost. In additional, some of its palm mill also force to closed for 2 month during CMO in Mar and April.
FGV report plantation profit in Q2 2020 = RM 47m FFB Production volume : 1.19 million MT CPO price: RM 2309 MT unharvest FFB loss 79k MT in Q2 due to movement control order Impairment loss due to ease rubber mill in Cambodia = -RM 20m
FGV report plantation profit in Q2 2019 = -RM 54m FFB Production volume : 1.15 million MT CPO price: RM 1955 MT
FGV report swing plantation profit from loss -RM 54m to profit +RM 47m, a massive swing of RM 101m, due to CPO price increase RM 354 MT and 0.04MT increase in FFB production. If take into account impairment loss RM 20m and unharvest FFB loss impact, the swing in plantation profit will be more than RM 121m
Therefore, based on FGV production FFB and CPO price in Q3, FGV should report improvement in CPO price RM 491 MT and higher FFB production by 13% to give total profit RM 190m, EPS 5.2sen. However, if take into account MSM 51% share of loss RM 38m, the profit estimate will adjust down to RM RM 152m, or EPS 4.2sen
FFB Production volume in Q3 2020: 1.345 million MT CPO price in Q3 2020: RM 2800 MT MSM 51% share of loss : - RM 38m
Bear in mind, FGV only manage to realize average CPO RM 2645 if compared to current CPO price above RM 3300. These windfall profit above 8sen will be reflrect in next Q result
Cannot compared revenue to profit margin as FGV also record revenue from loss making MSM, consolidate loss making MSM revenue due to 51% control subsidiary.
A better judgement should single out planation revenue, which is major profit contributor
FGV is one of the cheapest planation stock with Q3 EPS 3.8sen alone in accord to CPO 2645 in Q3, rolling to Q4 result, EPS could surpass 8sen in accord to CPO price >RM 3300
FGV profit is extreme sensitive to movement of CPO price. Invest FGV now, enjoy 2x higher share price once next Q4 result release, which will based on CPO price > RM 3300 if compared to just release CPO price RM 2645.
Share price will move higher if company able to deliver consecutive higher EPS
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
dam82
2,219 posts
Posted by dam82 > 2020-11-17 10:20 | Report Abuse
Biler QR ...MSM gone case ..how FGV QR ?