I do not agree with RHB using enlarged share base (to calculate value per share) on assumption that all warrant holders (264m) convert into ordinary shares. In reality, warrants normally traded at premium few years before expiry (in this case 12-15%), and held by mainly retail investors, CONVERSION is NOT LIKELY.
Accumulated some @ 30.5sen based on RHB: 1) RM90m build and leaseback with Mytel 2) Mytel became 3rd tenant (no figures given) 3) Telenor clear another 100 sites for deployment 4) Vietnam continue to ramp up new BTS 5) Possible M&A (mostly are value for longer term)
Exchanged of market infor on tower business in Msia with tower contractor:
[a] 3 leg tower. Build cost est =RM300k (very closed to OCK figure) Rental rev per month = basic package with 3 telco tenant = min rental revenue is Rm10k-15k/mth.
[b] rooftop station Spece rental = RM3k to 5k/mth to shop owner depending on location. Total revenue rental collected from telco = not sure
So from here, look at SEATH infor again. FY2015, rev=RM49mil Total tower = 1,983. Rev/tower/yr = RM25k. Rev/tower/mth = RM2k.
Remarks: [a] The rental revenue is very much lower compare to Msia rate. [b] 2 possible case: too competitive or under charge.
Opportunity: If it is under charge, then potential of rev upside will be very strong.
Seath Revenue vs Net Profit FY13 : Revenue : RM46.4m ; Net profit : RM7.6m FY14 : Revenue : RM48.5m ; Net profit : RM7.2m FY15 : Revenue : RM48.9m ; Net profit : RM7.4m Last 3y profit margin is thin because VNI been a fund manager, didn’t concentrate on maximizing the efficiency of the towers. With OCK managing the operations, we will be able to reduce Seath’s high operating costs and manage it efficiently to increase profit margins
VFTRADER - unable to open the link. Please resend.
ZaiZai - yes, profit a bit low (OCK should be able to improve it), however, the depreciation is about RM16-18m. So the EBITDA/cash flow is not too bad. RM7.4m + RM17m = RM24.4m p.a.
sosfinance, my expectation on Q2 is 10mil net profit. i hope it can reap its rental income from 600 towers in Myanmar. do you think it is realistic? :)
RHB lower TP le, don't talk like that la, i borrow ah long buy this stock 1 Anyway, i believe in RHB, last years they recommend Pmetal and it raise 4xx% in 24 month time
i'm happy with the current volume, Something can't down sure will rebound, something can't up sure will fall volume like this mean market already expect poor result, even if it come out with poor result the price won't down too much too, but anything meet the expectation it simply 15-20% profit
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Huat Huat
905 posts
Posted by Huat Huat > 2017-08-08 17:44 | Report Abuse
为何跌不停?