UOB KayHian SOPTP (value) of OCK is RM1.192 billion.
Q3 of Myanmar revenue is RM13.6m. Q4 , with higher tenancy ratio, may achieve RM15-16m (rough estimates). Fundamentally getting stronger by the Q. Q4, normally is the highest Q, may represent above 50% or more contribution.
sos bro, i think the EBITDA will high as usual, but don’t put too much hope on nett profit o cux mymmar and vietnam income account as USD, after deduct expenses convert back to MYR and you found last quarter, malaysia business actually decrease quite lot i forecast the earning will be 13-15m, anything better than 12m is good enough to maintence the price
rkg, it is more suitable for towerco (accepted by the market) to use EBITDA multiple for estimating its valuation. Repayment of loan and interest is also in USD. Net impact may be marginal (natural hedge, especially during the initial years).
I prefer to focus on EBITDA because towerco biz eventually will be significant, hence, using EBITDA multiple for valuation estimates is reasonable.
Although the price has not reflected it, the company's fundamental is significantly more favourable than the financial-community appraisal of this company currently. - Philip Fisher
Where does the improving fundamental comes from? Myanmar + Vietnam
1. Built 650 towers in Myanmar with sustainable recurring income (tenancy of 1.3x) + bought 1,983 towers in Vietnam 2. To built another 600-800 more (secured) + new tenancy (Myanmar + Vietnam) 3. EBITDA margin will improve gradually, towerco biz will become a significant contributor 4. Continuing growth in tenancy ratio (negotiating with Ooredoo Telecom, the 4th telco in Myanmar) - a big boost to the Revenue Growth and EBITDA Margin
(Estimated Effective Equity IRR is about 13-16% for towerco biz)
OCK's broad strategy is to attain 5,000 towers in ASEAN countries, almost 80% higher from current 2,800 towers. With improving tenancy, EBITDA growth will accelerate. CAGR on profits will widen from 11% to 15%.
30 Sept @ RM4.23 = RM290mil 31 Dec @ RM4.06 = RM 272mil 27 Jan @ RM3.87 = RM266mil
Potential forex gain of RM18 million, which will offset the reduced income from the strengthening of MYR. Usually the last quarter would their best result in the FY. Believe that the WA would fly back to 40 cent provided that mother share jump to RM1.
Tower business the new growth chapter for OCK.... Everything is on track.. superb!
The Group has been on a growth trajectory, achieving a 6-year profit after tax compounded annual growth rate of 43% from 2010 to 2016. While the initial growth engine of the Group has been its local contracting business, the Group in the past 2 years generated significant growth from its regional expansion mainly from Vietnam with the acquisition of SEATH and Myanmar with its tower leasing business which will continue to be the way forward in bringing the Group to greater heights.
The Group is dedicated to grow its regional ASEAN telecom footprint through greenfield, brownfield and potential acquisitions opportunities to own more telecommunication sites to achieve its vision of becoming an ASEAN Tower company and to increase it’s recurring income stream.
The Group’s Management would want a dedicated leader to spearhead the Group’s regional expansion. In line with this, Dr. Yap Wai Khee, the current Group Chief Executive Officer (“GCEO”) is re-designated to be the Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) of OCK Sea Towers Pte. Ltd., overseeing the Group’s telecommunications tower business in South East Asia (“SEA”).
Dr. Yap earned his MBA from Imperial College, University of London and completed his PhD in Engineering from the University of Cambridge. With over 21 years of corporate experience with various leadership roles both in local and foreign telecommunications companies such as Axiata Group Berhad, Mfone (Cambodia) and Robi Axiata (Bangladesh), Dr Yap is the most suited candidate to take on the responsibility of driving OCK’s regional telecom expansion in SEA.
Commenting on the Group’s announcement, Mr. Sam Ooi Chin Khoon, Managing Director of OCK Group Berhad said, “I am delighted to announce the leadership re-designations. Dr. Yap will be the best person to lead our strategic direction of bringing OCK to the next level through our regional tower business expansion. We believe that the change in leadership is imperative for our Group to reach the next level of growth regionally. With Dr. Yap at the helm of OCK Sea Towers Pte. Ltd., and with David overseeing the Group’s overall executive function, we foresee our regional telecom operations and OCK Group will be well-positioned, to achieve greater heights” he added.
Next 1-3 years, its margin is expanding (EBITDA Margin from higher tenancy ratio) & its capacity is also expanding (New towers + higher tenancy ratio + acquisition) = improved valuation.
Valuation (PE or P/BV or FCF or DCF) does not determine the direction of the market (or stock), it only determine the market risk, it is the sentiment (confidence) & liquidity (Fed's action) that drives the market.
Mr Sam did not make it to the top 40. Maybe not even top 100. What is in his mind ? Push the price down further so that he can buy back and then jack up the price to be on the top 10??
Practical Planner principal-agent problem is very common in the case of shareholder-management relationship and the share price movement is beyond the control of ppl like us
My personal thought: if the share price does not move beyond 90c by mid-March, there should not be any excitement this year, come back again in early 2019 as the opportunity cost of holding is high even if the stock is fundamentally good
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
zlyc
270 posts
Posted by zlyc > 2018-01-19 13:36 | Report Abuse
i am part of 93.4 but small investor.