In case you don't know. Astro offers Netflix/Disney HS/HBO as well. Rather than paying all 3 and have 3 different interface, you can just subscribe to astro package and view everything on a single platform. They've also allow mobile streaming. Do read up what's their plan in annual report.
Also, don't forget, astro is strong in their sports content offering. Their astro go shop is also growing. They've also offers local content i.e. their radio station. Hitz, MY, ERA, Lite, Melody etc.
Don't confuse by one of their transmission technology (dish) with the nature of their business. They have already pivoted to include broadband albeit HSBB is still fairly price inhibiting to most consumer (not referring to those unifi 30mbps but rather 300/500mbps which is required to stream 4k content). Believe they will indirectly benefit as gov continues to lower broadband prices across the board.
Dont forget ppl can subscribe seprately and not have to pay such a high price for channels they dont need. Also unifi aso start launching a lot of content and apps at a much lower price as well. So astro is not competitive.
Privatisation is fake news. Why would anyone buy a sunset business at even 80 sen, when Net Assets is only 20 sen? Astro has huge debts, why would any private person buy that massive debt? What special thing can any private investor do to Astro that it couldn't do when it is public? Astro stops dividend payments because it has to conserve cash to simply survive. Privatisation here simply does not make any commercial sense at all! I wish Astro can rise to 80 sen but right now, it's hope at best. Anyway, here's "hoping" for privatisation, but seriously, why would anyone privatise this sunset business?
At 69.5 sen, Astro is valued at RM3.6 billion. Pay TV contributes 90% of its total revenues. It supplies 5.7 million homes. So, each home has to roughly generate RM3.6 billion / 5.7 million homes = RM631 net profit over say next 10-20 years.
I suppose if there is a private investor who believe they can double that, then, they might offer something a little bit higher than 70 sen, but they won't offer RM1.40 because they have to do a whole lot of work and they need to be rewarded.
I think the market price of 70 sen is about right, but the "hope" is if/when a bidder comes in, then, for a short while, price might get frenzied and ridiculous and it's then time to dispose.
It'll be funny if a bidder waits for 6 months and then comes in and offer say 20% higher than the average market price over the past 12 months near 70 sen. Then, those speculators who jumped in on privatization news might have to dispose at a loss, causing Astro to fall back to 60 sen again.
That new kwailou CEO won't be able to make any difference to the sunset industry anyway, so, wait for another 6-12 months, the stock goes no where, and the bidder eventually comes in and offer 20% higher when the new kwailou CEO keeps bleeding the company to death ....
It is amazing how many gullible people are out there saying things like "no dividend this quarter because privatisation is coming". That is just silly and show zero understanding on how the Board and Senior Management works. Let's say Board and Senior management are fully aware of a privatization coming. They then inform Bursa that they have received nothing when Bursa asks a few days ago. If they stop there, and later a privatisation comes, all the Board members are probably unfit to become Board members and Senior Management will be put on a hot spot. Meaning, now that Bursa has clarified, any privatisation now have to wait for at least another 6 months so that the market forgets. it also benefits the private investor to wait another 6-12 months to let Astro die a slow death, especially after it falls below 60 sen in 1-2 months time when there's no privatisation ... LOL
In short, I own ASTRO, but I am not buying any more due to this silly rumour. I'm a value investor who loves high dividend yield stocks when nobody else wants them, I love stocks on the cheap, but I have enough cheap ASTRO and disappointed that they had to conserve cash desperately and stopped dividends for the first time in Astro's very long consistent paying dividend history. The new Kwailou CEO is probably the cause of this, they don't really care much about history, which means Astro is either going to go up in a big way, or go down in a big way when the CEO is desperate. Oh, he will get desperate - just give him time to hang himself. I think 12 months should do it. 12 months is also good for the private investor.
I like AmInvest coverage of Astro end March 2023. Investment Highlights We downgrade Astro Malaysia (Astro) to HOLD with a lower DCF-derived fair value (FV) of RM0.68/share (vs RM1.02/share previously). Our FV ... implies a FY24F PE of 9x, near its 5-year low of 8x. : Astro did not declare a dividend for 4QFY23. DPS for FY23 amounted to 3 sen (FY22: 6.8 sen) in total. This translates to a pay-out ratio of 60% and is a departure from the minimum pay-out policy of 75%. Management intends to resume dividend payments in FY24F. Looking ahead, Astro offers FY24F-26F dividend yields of 6%-7% based on a pay-out ratio of 60%. : TV’s PBT halved YoY to RM266mil in FY23 due to decreased subscription and TV ad revenue, as well as higher broadband cost and content cost.
The only reason I haven't sold Astro is because getting 5% dividend yield is decent, if Astro is near bottom. One reason to think it may be near bottom is because Analysts have finally start to catch up with the declining price. The past few years, analysts are always constant calling Buy, Buy, Buy, with TP higher than current price. But we are now starting to see Analyst TP being lower than Astro's current price. May not be bottom yet, but one more push to the bottom. When majority of analysts starts to be negative on Astro, that's when the bottom is near.
This DividendGuy67 really spend so much effort to persuade people that this is a sunset business that nobody would want to take it p*****e. Ask people sell and go away, unless they are 'value investor' like him/herself.
The more you talk, the more people can see your intentions. Want buy cheap just say so la...
It's a sunset streaming/broadcast platform. Lost in war of piracy.
Movie making and online shopping department still good.
Video quality better than TV boxes but lack of genuine 4k content which is not very different FHD content.
Promoting and discovering local artists. It's a stepping stone for talents. Without Astro talents need to travel to China or Singapore as stepping stone. The piracy is really hurting local talents and authority is not helping. TV box buyers are sponsoring China and indirectly supporting Putin (it's fine with many Malaysians as China/Russia can help punishing the money printing bully according to some's logic).
According to CIMB research today (18/4), it affirms its target price of RM0.86... A MAX upgrade. The report also hints "A potential re-rating catalyst is privatisations in the media sector boosting interest in Astro" ! Collect now before too late
ChongLeeWon, on the contrary, no effort at all - comments here will not impact prices at all, it is futile to even try. My point is simple - 3 weeks ago, someone said ASTRO will be privatized in 2 weeks time. Well, that was a week ago .. And, 3 weeks ago, many saw that privatization rumour was fake news, all I did was merely stating that fact what many saw.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
cherry88
986 posts
Posted by cherry88 > 2023-04-07 15:59 | Report Abuse
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/highlight/2023/03/10/astro-dismisses-privatisation-speculation-amid-stock-rally/