@johnzhang pls count me in if you start a motion against privatization at unreasonable price. My holding not so much but if more minority support the motion , will be better. My view was that this quite unlikely to happen.
As majorshareholder SU holding around 40% of the share , any party with interest to take control of the company will not be easy without negotiation with SU to buy over his stake.
My view if interested party emerge.
1. Will negotiate to buy over SU 40% holding 2. While in negotiation , will accumulate MPHBCAP stock in open market as much as possible below the negotiation price.
With MPHBCAP value of cash + asset roughly at RM6 to 7 per share , I think SU will ask for at least 4 to 5 per share in cash. This should be about 1B to 1.5B in cash. I'm assuming 4 to 5 base on the facts that real estate are not liquid , SU willing to take a discount for immediate cash out of the investment.
For the interested party , if only forge out RM1B to RM1.5B to get the landbank , worth the investment at about 50% to the market value of RM2B to RM3B.
Base on above , my view was
1. The final price of 4 to 5 will depends how much share the interested party absorb from the open market below negotiation price. The higher the % , the will accept higher price from SU ( with same amount of cash allocated for the acquisition ) 2. If couldn't strike a deal , exit strategy by selling the accumulated stock in the open market , still can make a profit.
Therefore , while holding for good news from #1 above and cautious about # 2 , will hold on and decide once price hit 2.50. If no news , will consider selling in batches.
@opportunate, thank you for your support. Every minorities vote counts during EGM in the event that the privatisation or any other corporate move is deem UNFAIR to minorities. Minorities have to stand together to get a fair treatment from Mgt and BOD which often under control of major shareholder. We must remember that how big or small an investor in the company has equal rights . We should also be closely watching the financial accounts , any major transaction or corporate excercise that is not to the interest of the minorities. If the Mgt and the BOD acted unfairly against minorities and fail in their fiduciary duty , we have the legal and administrative resources , to bring the perpetrator to trial .
@opportunate, I concur with your views on the hostile takeover. Any investor or a group of investors acting in concert who can gain control for even 20-30% stakes stand to benefit handsomely from the huge resources in the company. Your view on potential valuation of the company of $6-7 per share is also in line with my estimate.
My estimates are as follows: (1) existing NA attributes to owners of the company as at 31/3/21 is $2.60 per share. (2). Potential monetisation value of all the lands and properties in Penang, selangor, KL and Pengarang is $3.7 bil vs $800 mil captured in the book . The difference in value translation additional $4/- per share. (3). The ongoing disposal of 51% insurance unit should take in $350 mil ( and the investment cost was very low). This will bring in about $0.50 per share
To add up (1) + (2) + (3) =$7.10 per share .
For the land/ property potential valuation, I adopt pricing transacted in the vacinity in recent years .
@Endgame, it doesn't matter whether it is an old fact or new fact so long it is a fact! Hope you see this point positivly . Having presented the fact of this hidden gem, I must also alert shorterm traders and punters that this counter is not suitable for you whose objective is to make overnight profit . This is because , while someone is scooping up the grossly undervalued bshare from the market (thus pushing price higher). , the same someone or other acquirer will also let the market take a breather or even deliberately sell down small qty intermittently to entice more weak holders to give in. In the end, investors with Patience will reap the reward. You know what I mean if you are a season stock investor.
@Johnzhang your estimates are double-counting the figures left-right centre.. the insurance business is already in the book in NA of $2.50... not sure whether you studied finance/accounting
@knn_no_BS, May I suggest you spend some time to read the past years accounts of the company to find out what was the disposal value for the 49% of MPI to Generali about 6 years ago vis-a-vis the cost of investment in MPI (MPI is the insurance unit of MPHB capital). There is also some basis of valuation for the block of remaining 51% stake sales to Generali. Item (3) in my yesterday posting is about the estimated GAIN from the ongoing disposal of the remaining 51% . As the deal has not been completed, the gain can not be booked in the account yet. Is there still double counting?
Just to repeat what I have said on 15/6/21 . Punters aiming for good overnight profit will most likely get disappointed and may even lose money here . This is because nobody will continue buying up( and hence pushing price higher-ups) for you to make easy money every other day or other week. It is better that you sell and keep your hard earned money in FD.
This stock is for those who genuinely believe in value investing and hence not concern of day-to-day and week-to-week's price volatility. Just my opinion for sharing. No offense please.
With Privatization for under value and performance shares, the current season had seen MMC Corp and others going through the exercise to realize their actual value. Furthermore, current share price is at 5 to 6 years high, it is an opportunity to look into this counter for portfolio especially with high NTA and high intrinsic value.
@Endgame, In reality, nobody can be sure how the price of even the best or the most undervalued stock will move in the short term. But for longer term performance, we can be more sure. Therefore, it is better to take a slightly longer term view for a good stocks.
Interesting to see a good counter with high NTA of RM2.60 per share company which traded below it price of RM1.62 to RM1.63 which reps represent discount 38% discount from it NTA value. Not to mention it properties value in Mega city in Malaysia and Pengerang as well as it potential gain on disposal of it 51% insurance business. With that this is the opportunity to look at this counter with little downside risk
Good time buy into as the opportunity arise seldom being seen for this strong fundamental counter which intrinsic value way above RM5. Furthermore, privatization is likely as the counter is under perform compared to it suppose value and with small float volume will add to condition to privatize like recent MMC Corp
Type Announcement Subject OTHERS Description MPHB CAPITAL BERHAD ("MPHB Capital" or the "Company") Submission of Application to Bank Negara Malaysia ("BNM") for the proposed disposal of 51% equity interest in MPI Generali Insurans Berhad ("MPI Generali") We refer to our announcement dated 29 September 2020.
The Board of Directors of MPHB Capital wishes to announce that Multi-Purpose Capital Holdings Berhad (“MPCHB”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of MPHB Capital, has today submitted an application to BNM to seek the approval of the Minister of Finance of Malaysia pursuant to Section 89 of the Financial Services Act, 2013 for the proposed disposal of 51% equity interest in MPI Generali to Generali Asia N.V. (“Generali Asia”) and the entry into a Share Purchase Agreement with Generali Asia.
OWNERSHIP, CONTROL AND TRANSFER OF BUSINESS 86. Application and non-application Division 1 Interest in shares of licensed person 87. Acquisition of interest in shares requiring approval 88. Control over licensed person prohibited in some cases 89. Disposal of interest in shares requiring approval 90. Application procedures for section 87, 88 or 89
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Opportunate
204 posts
Posted by Opportunate > 2021-06-14 23:53 | Report Abuse
@johnzhang pls count me in if you start a motion against privatization at unreasonable price. My holding not so much but if more minority support the motion , will be better. My view was that this quite unlikely to happen.