Being a long haul budget airline, AAX is more sensitive to the movement of the oil price when compared to other airlines including its parent company AirAsia (which focus mainly on short distance travel). . This is why some people argues that oil price fluctuation are the flaw in the company's budget long haul model.
AAX cost per available seat kilometer excluding fuel (CASK) is actually one of the lowest in the industry at around 1.98 US cents. This is even lower then AirAsia's 2.2 cents and the full services carriers of about 5 to 6 cents. But given that it is a long haul budget service its revenue per ASK spread to CASK is very low compared to other airlines (basically this is the profit spread) . When jet fuel price increase, it could easily wipe out the profit and turn the operation into a loss which is what had happen this year.
Currently the jet fuel price is still trading at above USD80 per barrel (an average premium of USD20 vs Brent crude) which is above the level seen last year but a lot better than the 3Q18 average of USD90-100. Hopefully with the seasonally higher passengers carried and lower fuel cost, 4Q18 result might be able to return back to profit.
However for FY19 to be profitable it will all depend on the jet fuel cost. Anything above USD90 per barrel would mean a potential difficult year for AAX.
For those looking to diversify in companies outside of the airline industry, i would recommend you to look at MBMR.
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 5.9x PE (based on target FY18 PATAMI of RM145mil. 9m PATAMI is already RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.6x BV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year's 4Q17. And FY19 growth will be driven by the still high demand of new Myvi and the launch of the new SUV in 1Q19.
The main problem is poor Malaysia. More than 10000 km from Malaysia everything is expensive. Think la how can AAX profit from this. Malaysian can only travel to cheaper places.
Hi calvin. Run here already ha? What happen to your watta so called genius prediction? Calling people sorchai like so genius. Here also ask people to sell? Wow
I think the debt has been falling since they are paying back which means they are generating good cash. Now I think debt level is comfortable at around 400+ million. With low oil price , AAX should be able to pay this debt back in no time.
Long haul (AAX) vs short haul (AA). Cheaper to fly short haul. On long haul, you have to burn fuel to carry fuel. And fuel does not pay for its ticket.
Long haul take long time. Short haul short time. In time to fly one long haul, you can do several short haul. Make more money that way/
Tourist movement. Many exotic places to see in SEA, all it would take is a short plane hop. Since ticket so cheap, tourist can hop a lot. Long distance travel is 2 trips max. One to come here and one to go home. Ticket maybe cheap but tourist will only take so many round trip to destination and home.
Look at their route to London How long did it last By the time you put the extras in, almost the same as scheduled airlines I sooner travel in comfort on long haul Norwegian Air v SingaporeAir which one would you fly London to Singapore
The High Court reinstated the decision of the Malaysia Competition Commission (MyCC), which imposed a fine of RM10 million each on Malaysia Airlines (MAS) and AirAsia Bhd for breach of market-sharing prohibition under the Competition Act 2010.
Is a guy named radzi still on this forum ? or did he change his username ? he always used to be coming up with his TPs for AAX back in 2016 and 2017 saying that AAX is on an upward trend, fasten your seatbelts to take etc but until t0day AAX has been on a downward trend. Anyone knows where is Sifu radzi ? I miss reading his FAKE ANALYSIS LOL
lol Lanesra and hollandking, yeah that guy. Surprised that the old timers here recall him.
these used to be his common statements/justifications/ excuses
1. When AAX price goes up, See guys, everyone believes in AAX thats why they are buying, place took off 2. When Tony, Kama buys, See guys, the management has confidence, thats why they are buying.
3. When AAX price drops, Something is brewing guys, the institutional players/sindikket is pushing prices down as they know that AAX is good and they want to collect it lower before pushing it higher 4. When an IB gives a lower TP for AAX than its currently traded price, Mr xxxxx, would say, Aiyoo, those people dont know how to value AAX. I have always never liked their valuation.
5. When crude oil price goes up, Mr xxxxx would say, dont be worried guys, AAX jet fuel is hedged 6. When crude oil decreases, Mr xxxxx would say that see guys, lower crude oil is better for AAX
7.When RM increases, see guys its good mah, AAX debt is in USD and RM has strengthen against USD so its good 8.When RM decreases, see guys, more people would fly with AAX especially foreigners ass the RM is cheap and its cheaper for them to come to Malaysia.
9.When AAX goes up by 0.005cents or 0.01cents, he would say, see guys AAX is flying, better tighten your seatbelts. 10. When AAX drops significantly from RM0.5Xsomething to RM0.36, Sifu would say, see guys i am averaging down, its a fundamentally strong counter, future is good, crude oil down, RM UP, Sindiket is pushing down because something is brewing etc
@newinvestor 17, not bad, Look like you have analysed all the comments. But you left out no. 11 world markets and its influence on AAX, Anyway, all the comments sounded like me.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Ong Eng Lee
110 posts
Posted by Ong Eng Lee > 2018-12-07 17:31 | Report Abuse
One day Abunene, for ever abunene